Looking Forward to the 2023 Draft: Mock Draft #1

Sure, it has been a while since last I took the time to publish here. The reason for that is pretty obvious: There are a lot of better, more informed writers covering the Steelers today than there were seven years ago. Like most of you, I consumed most of the content created by Dale Lolley, Dejan Kovacevic, Chris Carter, et al.  Those reporters have access to the team, its players, coaches, and management.  What in the world could I hope to offer that they have not already provided?  But then, mock draft simulations became a thing and I figured my guesses were worth taking the time to share.  

Between now and the NFL Draft I will post my selections for the Steelers along with some rationale for those selections.  For the purposes of these posts, I am not proposing any trades, though it seems pretty clear that pick #32 could be dealt to a team missing out on the first round (e.g., Rams #36, Dolphins #51, Broncos #67) for a decent return both this year and next (and, perhaps, 2025).  For all of these drafts, I am using the Pro Football Focus (PFF) draft simulator with custom settings:

With all of that in mind, let's dive into Mock Draft #1!

By the time for the Steelers' first pick (#17) came around the top three cornerbacks (i.e., Christian Gonzalez, Devon Witherspoon, and Joey Porter Jr. -- he went to the Jets) were already off the board.  As a result, the players at the top of PFF's draft rankings available were:

 

#13: Calijah Kancey (DL, Pitt), 

#14: Brian Branch (S, Alabama), 

#17: Dalton Kincaid (TE, Utah), 

#18: Deonte Banks (CB, Maryland)

A great deal of focus regarding the Steelers this postseason has been on the need for adding quality and depth to their cornerbacks, and Banks would be a good choice here.  Of course, there have been reports that Steelers' management is also looking to add a safety, and if that is perceived as a higher priority then Branch could be the way to go.  Meanwhile, as good as Kincaid may be, there is no chance that the team takes a tight end in the first round.  Having said all of that, Kancey is the selection to make here.  Any doubts I may have had were laid to rest with this from PFF: "He may have to start off as a designated pass-rusher, but he can truly excel in that role. There's little doubt he's going to impact QBs at the next level."  Having a solid secondary is important but one way to improve your secondary is to put more pressure on opposing quarterbacks more consistently.  SELECTION: Calijah Kancey

As selection #32 rolled around, here were the top ten players available according to PFF's rankings:

#30: Josh Downs (WR, UNC)

#31: Dawand Jones (OT, Ohio State)

#32: Tanner McKee (QB, Stanford)

#33: Felix Anudike-Uzomah (Edge, Kansas State)

#35: BJ Ojulari (Edge, LSU)

#36: Emmanual Forbes (CB, Mississippi State)

#37: Daiyan Henley (LB, Washington State)

#38: Cam Smith (CB, South Carolina)

#40: Adetomiwa Adebawore (Edge, Northwestern)

#41: Steve Avila (OG, TCU)

There is a lot to like in this group but there are some positions (i.e., OG, QB, WR) that will not be part of the Steelers' draft calculus at this spot.  Further, as appealing as a young, athletic edge rusher might be it seems a reach at selection #32.  That leaves these players to receive the most serious consideration:

#31: Dawand Jones (OT, Ohio State)

#36: Emmanual Forbes (CB, Mississippi State)

#37: Daiyan Henley (LB, Washington State)

#38: Cam Smith (CB, South Carolina)

Yes, the Steelers need a cornerback (or two).  But, with their future vested in Kenny Pickett, it seems prudent to solidify left tackle.   SELECTION: Dawand Jones (OT, Ohio State)

The next Steelers selection comes at #49 and this was, by far, the toughest choice.  I had hoped that a cornerback (e.g., Tyrique Stevenson) or a safety (e.g., Anotonio Johnson) would be available here but they went off the board shortly ahead of the Steelers' pick.  Here are the top 20 players according to PFF that were available at this spot:

#32: Tanner McKee (QB, Stanford)

#43: Nathaniel Dell (WR, Houston)

#46: Luke Wypler (C, Ohio State)

#49: Garrett Williams (CB, Syracuse)

#50: Sam LaPorta (TE, Iowa)

#51: Jahmyr Gibbs (RB, Alabama)

#52: Andre Carter II (Edge, Army)

#53: Joe Tippmann (C, Wisconsin)

#54: Matthew Bergeron (OT, Syracuse)

#56: Karl Brooks (Edge, Bowling Green)

#57: Sydney Brown (S, Syracuse)

#58: Nick Herbig (Edge, Wisconsin)

#59: Tre'Vius Hodges-Tomlinson (CB, TCU)

#60: Zach Charbonnet (RB, UCLA)

#61: Eli Ricks (CB, Alabama)

#62: Julius Brents (CB, Kansas State)

#63: Jammie Robinson (S, FSU)

#65: Siaki Ika (DL, Baylor)

#66: Trenton Simpson (LB, Clemson)

#67: Keannu Benton (DL, Wisconsin)

Seeing Bergeron available made me a bit whistful about having selected Jones at #32.  With cornerback and safety still a need, I had to pass on Zach Charbonnet who is an outstanding runner and pass catcher -- someone is going to get a great running back.  Similarly, it is difficult to believe that offensive line would see much more attention in this draft, especially considering the two free agent signings earlier this month.  Ultimately, I focused on the defensive backs:

#57: Sydney Brown (S, Syracuse)
#59: Tre'Vius Hodges-Tomlinson (CB, TCU)

#61: Eli Ricks (CB, Alabama)

#62: Julius Brents (CB, Kansas State)

#63: Jammie Robinson (S, FSU)

After perusing the various metrics offered I settled on Sydney Brown, of whom PFF says "Brown is the single best athlete in this safety class. His size [5'10", 211 lbs.] will take him off some boards, but his coverage versatility should be coveted."  SELECTION: Sydney Brown (S, Syracuse).

Now at #80, cornerbacks seem relatively plentiful with a few now familiar names popping up  again, along with some new ones:

#32: Tanner McKee (QB, Stanford)
#49: Garrett Williams (CB, Syracuse)

#59: Tre'Vius Hodges-Tomlinson (CB, TCU)

#63: Jammie Robinson (S, FSU)

#81: Darius Rush (CB, South Carolina)

#82: Dorian Williams (LB, Tulane)

Sorry Tanner McKee, you are not going to be selected here either.  In looking at the defensive backs, the question becomes do the Steelers want to selected a cornerback who is ranked between 15-25 at their position or a safety who is top ten at his?  I opted for the safety who is well rated in both coverage and run defense.  SELECTION: Jammie Robinson (S, FSU).

At spot #120, the top rated players represent an array of positions, including running backs, safeties, linebackers, defensive linemen, edge rushers, and wide receivers.  The players to whom I gave serious consideration were:

#111: Yasir Abdullah (Edge, Louisville)

#116: Ronnie Hickman (Safety, Ohio State)

#121: Keondre Coburn (Nose Tackle, Texas)

#123: Ji'Ayir Brown (Safety, Penn State)

#124: Cam Jones (LB, Indiana)

Abdullah is highly regarded by PFF and had 11 sacks during his 2022 season (as compared to 13 in the previous two seasons combined) and Hickman had the 33rd best passer rating allowed (39.2) amongst all safeties.  Statistics for Jones and Brown were less impressive, with PFF arguing that Brown "is too unreliable to trust deep."  SELECTION: Ronnie Hickman (Safety, Ohio State).

With the final two Steelers picks in the middle of the seventh round, I focused on getting athletes/special teams contributors.  

#234 SELECTION:  SirVocea Dennis (LB, Pitt) -- I rather doubt that Dennis will last this long in the actual draft, especially considering his strong performance at Pitt's pro day, but if he is then the Steelers should snap him up.

#241 SELECTION:  Dorian Thompson-Robinson (QB, UCLA) -- as a UCLA alum, I freely admit my bias.  However, the Steelers need a third quarterback and this young man is an incredible athlete.  Also available in this mock draft was Max Duggan, the quarterback from TCU.

At the conclusion of the draft, here is how PFF graded my selections:

The 49th pick was the toughest so I am not surprised that it received a less than stellar grade.  Further, not finding a cornerback seems problematic.  But, these selections would strengthen both the offensive and defensive lines as well as safety.

Thanks for reading and the next mock draft will be in about a week.