Looking Forward to the 2023 Draft: Mock Draft #1

Sure, it has been a while since last I took the time to publish here. The reason for that is pretty obvious: There are a lot of better, more informed writers covering the Steelers today than there were seven years ago. Like most of you, I consumed most of the content created by Dale Lolley, Dejan Kovacevic, Chris Carter, et al.  Those reporters have access to the team, its players, coaches, and management.  What in the world could I hope to offer that they have not already provided?  But then, mock draft simulations became a thing and I figured my guesses were worth taking the time to share.  

Between now and the NFL Draft I will post my selections for the Steelers along with some rationale for those selections.  For the purposes of these posts, I am not proposing any trades, though it seems pretty clear that pick #32 could be dealt to a team missing out on the first round (e.g., Rams #36, Dolphins #51, Broncos #67) for a decent return both this year and next (and, perhaps, 2025).  For all of these drafts, I am using the Pro Football Focus (PFF) draft simulator with custom settings:

With all of that in mind, let's dive into Mock Draft #1!

By the time for the Steelers' first pick (#17) came around the top three cornerbacks (i.e., Christian Gonzalez, Devon Witherspoon, and Joey Porter Jr. -- he went to the Jets) were already off the board.  As a result, the players at the top of PFF's draft rankings available were:

 

#13: Calijah Kancey (DL, Pitt), 

#14: Brian Branch (S, Alabama), 

#17: Dalton Kincaid (TE, Utah), 

#18: Deonte Banks (CB, Maryland)

A great deal of focus regarding the Steelers this postseason has been on the need for adding quality and depth to their cornerbacks, and Banks would be a good choice here.  Of course, there have been reports that Steelers' management is also looking to add a safety, and if that is perceived as a higher priority then Branch could be the way to go.  Meanwhile, as good as Kincaid may be, there is no chance that the team takes a tight end in the first round.  Having said all of that, Kancey is the selection to make here.  Any doubts I may have had were laid to rest with this from PFF: "He may have to start off as a designated pass-rusher, but he can truly excel in that role. There's little doubt he's going to impact QBs at the next level."  Having a solid secondary is important but one way to improve your secondary is to put more pressure on opposing quarterbacks more consistently.  SELECTION: Calijah Kancey

As selection #32 rolled around, here were the top ten players available according to PFF's rankings:

#30: Josh Downs (WR, UNC)

#31: Dawand Jones (OT, Ohio State)

#32: Tanner McKee (QB, Stanford)

#33: Felix Anudike-Uzomah (Edge, Kansas State)

#35: BJ Ojulari (Edge, LSU)

#36: Emmanual Forbes (CB, Mississippi State)

#37: Daiyan Henley (LB, Washington State)

#38: Cam Smith (CB, South Carolina)

#40: Adetomiwa Adebawore (Edge, Northwestern)

#41: Steve Avila (OG, TCU)

There is a lot to like in this group but there are some positions (i.e., OG, QB, WR) that will not be part of the Steelers' draft calculus at this spot.  Further, as appealing as a young, athletic edge rusher might be it seems a reach at selection #32.  That leaves these players to receive the most serious consideration:

#31: Dawand Jones (OT, Ohio State)

#36: Emmanual Forbes (CB, Mississippi State)

#37: Daiyan Henley (LB, Washington State)

#38: Cam Smith (CB, South Carolina)

Yes, the Steelers need a cornerback (or two).  But, with their future vested in Kenny Pickett, it seems prudent to solidify left tackle.   SELECTION: Dawand Jones (OT, Ohio State)

The next Steelers selection comes at #49 and this was, by far, the toughest choice.  I had hoped that a cornerback (e.g., Tyrique Stevenson) or a safety (e.g., Anotonio Johnson) would be available here but they went off the board shortly ahead of the Steelers' pick.  Here are the top 20 players according to PFF that were available at this spot:

#32: Tanner McKee (QB, Stanford)

#43: Nathaniel Dell (WR, Houston)

#46: Luke Wypler (C, Ohio State)

#49: Garrett Williams (CB, Syracuse)

#50: Sam LaPorta (TE, Iowa)

#51: Jahmyr Gibbs (RB, Alabama)

#52: Andre Carter II (Edge, Army)

#53: Joe Tippmann (C, Wisconsin)

#54: Matthew Bergeron (OT, Syracuse)

#56: Karl Brooks (Edge, Bowling Green)

#57: Sydney Brown (S, Syracuse)

#58: Nick Herbig (Edge, Wisconsin)

#59: Tre'Vius Hodges-Tomlinson (CB, TCU)

#60: Zach Charbonnet (RB, UCLA)

#61: Eli Ricks (CB, Alabama)

#62: Julius Brents (CB, Kansas State)

#63: Jammie Robinson (S, FSU)

#65: Siaki Ika (DL, Baylor)

#66: Trenton Simpson (LB, Clemson)

#67: Keannu Benton (DL, Wisconsin)

Seeing Bergeron available made me a bit whistful about having selected Jones at #32.  With cornerback and safety still a need, I had to pass on Zach Charbonnet who is an outstanding runner and pass catcher -- someone is going to get a great running back.  Similarly, it is difficult to believe that offensive line would see much more attention in this draft, especially considering the two free agent signings earlier this month.  Ultimately, I focused on the defensive backs:

#57: Sydney Brown (S, Syracuse)
#59: Tre'Vius Hodges-Tomlinson (CB, TCU)

#61: Eli Ricks (CB, Alabama)

#62: Julius Brents (CB, Kansas State)

#63: Jammie Robinson (S, FSU)

After perusing the various metrics offered I settled on Sydney Brown, of whom PFF says "Brown is the single best athlete in this safety class. His size [5'10", 211 lbs.] will take him off some boards, but his coverage versatility should be coveted."  SELECTION: Sydney Brown (S, Syracuse).

Now at #80, cornerbacks seem relatively plentiful with a few now familiar names popping up  again, along with some new ones:

#32: Tanner McKee (QB, Stanford)
#49: Garrett Williams (CB, Syracuse)

#59: Tre'Vius Hodges-Tomlinson (CB, TCU)

#63: Jammie Robinson (S, FSU)

#81: Darius Rush (CB, South Carolina)

#82: Dorian Williams (LB, Tulane)

Sorry Tanner McKee, you are not going to be selected here either.  In looking at the defensive backs, the question becomes do the Steelers want to selected a cornerback who is ranked between 15-25 at their position or a safety who is top ten at his?  I opted for the safety who is well rated in both coverage and run defense.  SELECTION: Jammie Robinson (S, FSU).

At spot #120, the top rated players represent an array of positions, including running backs, safeties, linebackers, defensive linemen, edge rushers, and wide receivers.  The players to whom I gave serious consideration were:

#111: Yasir Abdullah (Edge, Louisville)

#116: Ronnie Hickman (Safety, Ohio State)

#121: Keondre Coburn (Nose Tackle, Texas)

#123: Ji'Ayir Brown (Safety, Penn State)

#124: Cam Jones (LB, Indiana)

Abdullah is highly regarded by PFF and had 11 sacks during his 2022 season (as compared to 13 in the previous two seasons combined) and Hickman had the 33rd best passer rating allowed (39.2) amongst all safeties.  Statistics for Jones and Brown were less impressive, with PFF arguing that Brown "is too unreliable to trust deep."  SELECTION: Ronnie Hickman (Safety, Ohio State).

With the final two Steelers picks in the middle of the seventh round, I focused on getting athletes/special teams contributors.  

#234 SELECTION:  SirVocea Dennis (LB, Pitt) -- I rather doubt that Dennis will last this long in the actual draft, especially considering his strong performance at Pitt's pro day, but if he is then the Steelers should snap him up.

#241 SELECTION:  Dorian Thompson-Robinson (QB, UCLA) -- as a UCLA alum, I freely admit my bias.  However, the Steelers need a third quarterback and this young man is an incredible athlete.  Also available in this mock draft was Max Duggan, the quarterback from TCU.

At the conclusion of the draft, here is how PFF graded my selections:

The 49th pick was the toughest so I am not surprised that it received a less than stellar grade.  Further, not finding a cornerback seems problematic.  But, these selections would strengthen both the offensive and defensive lines as well as safety.

Thanks for reading and the next mock draft will be in about a week.

Jacksonville v. Steelers: Matchups, The Wild Card Edition

We don't pay a great deal of attention to point spreads, but we couldn't help but notice that Jacksonville is only giving between a point and a point-and-a-half in some of the early lines, of course the Steelers are the only home team not favored.

And for those who might want to take some encouragement away from Jacksonville's loss to Houston just remember that the the Jaguars deactivated six of their most important players.

Lastly, since the 2000 season (i.e. 2000-2006, inclusive), in the Wild Card Weekend, the home teams have a collective record of 19-9. And the Steelers are 4-1 in the last five appearances during that weekend.

It seems as though we did something like this not too long ago, but here's a look at the Jaguars' and Steelers' updated numbers.

Jacksonville Offense v. Steelers Defense
Average total yards per game: Jacksonville offense 7th (357.4) v. Steelers defense 1st (266.4)

Average net rushing yards per game: Jacksonville offense 2nd (149.4) v. Steelers defense 3rd (89.9)

Average net passing yards per game: Jacksonville offense 17th (208.0) v. Steelers defense 3rd (176.5)

Average points per game: Jacksonville offense 6th (25.69) v. Steelers defense 2nd (16.81)

Steelers Offense v. Jacksonville Defense
Average total yards per game: Steelers offense 17th (327.4) v. Jacksonville defense 12th (313.8)

Average net rushing yards per game: Steelers offense 3rd (135.5) v. Jacksonville defense 11th (100.3)

Average net passing yards per game: Steelers offense 22nd (191.9) v. Jacksonville defense 15th (213.5)

Average points per game: Steelers offense: 9th (24.56) v. Jacksonville defense 10th (19.0)

Special Teams
Average yards per punt return: Jacksonville 8th (10.1) v. Steelers 30th (6.1)

Average yards allowed per punt return: Jacksonville 11th (7.8) v. Steelers 14th (8.6)

Average yards per kick return: Jacksonville 15th (22.7) v. Steelers 21st (22.0)

Average yards allowed per kick return: Jacksonville 4th (19.7) v. Steelers 16th (22.6)

Net yardage punting average: Jacksonville 14th (36.9) v. Steelers 9th (37.9)

Opponent net yardage punting average: Jacksonville 17th (37.3) v. Steelers 26th (38.6)

Miscellaneous
Turnover differential: Jacksonville 7th (+9) v. Steelers 12th (+3)

Time of possession: Jacksonville 3rd (32:06) v. Steelers 1st (34:41)

Red Zone touchdown efficiency: Jacksonville 9th (56.9%) v. Steelers 7th (58.2%)

Red Zone defense (touchdowns): Jacksonville 23rd (55.6%) v. Steelers 22nd (55.3%)

Sacks allowed: Jacksonville 15th (31) v. Steelers 25th (47)

Sacks: Jacksonville 9th (37) v. Steelers 13th (36)

Some Individual Numbers
Passer rating: David Garrard 3rd (102.2) v. Ben Roethlisberger 2nd (104.1)

Leading rushers: Fred Taylor 9th (1,202 yards) v. Willie Parker 4th
(1,316 yards) Note: Najeh Davenport, the Steelers' likely starter this Saturday, is 45th in the NFL in rushing, and has rushed for 499 yards.

Leading receiver: Ernest Wilford 83rd (45 catches, 518 yards, 11.5 per catch, 3 touchdowns) v. Hines Ward 26th (71 catches, 732 yards, 10.3 yards per catch, 7 touchdowns)

Steelers @ Baltimore: The Good, the Bad, & the Ugly

If you're a Pittsburgh Steelers player there isn't much to feel good about following the 27-21 loss to Baltimore. If you're a fan of the Steelers here's some information that will leave you shaking your head (at a minimum).

Over the last six seasons (i.e. 2002-2007, inclusive of their game this past Sunday) the Steelers and Ravens have met 12 times in the regular season. In those games:

• Both teams have a 6-6 record
• Both teams have averaged 20.08 points per game
• In the six games played in Baltimore, the Steelers have a turnover differential of -7
• In the six games played in Baltimore the Steelers have rushed for an average of 57.2 yards

With the tone properly set, here's a look at some of what went on this week.

The Good
Having warmed up for three quarters the Steelers came to life offensively, and were less putrid defensively, in the fourth quarter.

For example, in the first three quarters the Steelers' offense gained 104 net yards (47 yards of which was gained via a pass interference call against Corey Ivy). Conversely, in the fourth quarter alone the Steelers gained 197 net yards. Additionally, nearly half of all the Steelers' offensive plays for the game came in the frenetic fourth quarter (i.e. 21 of 50 -- 42%), and 25% of their non-penalty first downs (i.e. 3 of 12) occurred during that same fifteen minute period.

On the defensive side of the football, the Steelers "limited" Baltimore to 50 yards during the final quarter -- the lowest total of any of the quarters, and "only" three first downs -- also the lowest total of any quarter in the game. Finally, and most "impressive," is that the "vaunted" Steelers defense managed to keep the "explosive" Ravens offense off the scoreboard in the final period.

Also falling into the "Good" section is that nearly every single player active for the game, for the Steelers, played, indeed, the only player not to play was Brian St. Pierre. So when Mike Tomlin breaks out the "We win as a team, and lose as a team" you'll know he really means it this week.

Also, it's good that, once that Baltimore put their third-string players in the game, the Steelers kept working hard enough (with many of their starters still in the game) to put some points on the board.

No, I'm not really buying that either but it's something.

Finally, the one group amongst the Steelers that can stand proud is special teams. Ten days after the Steelers successfully executed a fake punt, they managed to pull-off a successful onside kick against the Ravens. It was, arguably, the best executed play by Pittsburgh all day long. And Daniel Sepulveda, after a very poor first effort (25 yards), delivered kicks of 48 (net of 51), 47 (net of 47), and 29 yards (net of 29, down at the Baltimore 13).

The Bad
When discussing football it is often said that the most popular person in any town is the backup quarterback; and amongst backups no one is more well-regarded than Charlie Batch. But when Mr. Batch stinks in his annual start he's got to take the criticism just like a starter.

In the first half Mr. Batch hard numbers that, quite honestly, most of us could have turned in: 5/11, 41 yards, 0 touchdowns, 1 interception, and a frightening 17.6 passer rating. That his numbers improved dramatically in the second half (and particularly in the fourth quarter, as previously discussed) was as more a function of Baltimore emptying their bench than it was a genuine improvement in the play of Mr. Batch.

Also disappointing was the performance of Willie Reid. The fumble at the beginning of the game, and the subsequent inability of the defense to stop Baltimore from getting into the end zone, ended up being the difference in the score (if not entirely the difference in the game). Then, to compound that error, he fumbled another return though, in fairness, the call was challenged and reversed. During his tenure with the Steelers Mr. Reid has been more potential than performance, and unless something positive happens during these playoffs he may be looking for a new NFL home.


The Ugly
The starting defensive front seven of the Steelers went against a youthful offensive line of the Baltimore Ravens (i.e. there are two rookies in that group) and head their figurative heads kicked in. As a result Musa Smith and Cory Ross -- who had exactly zero carries in his two year career prior to today -- looked like Pro Bowlers. Specifically, these two unknown and unheralded third stringers (in fact, Cory Ross isn't even listed on the Ravens' depth chart) combined for 155 yards on 34 carries (4.56 yards per carry), and two touchdowns.

Additionally, the defense failed to capitalize on opportunities that were all but handed to them: Ike Taylor dropped an interception; and though the Ravens fumbled the football four times, the Steelers could only come up with one of those. When an opponent wants to hand you a game you have to be ready to oblige them, and the Steelers were anything but.

And over on the other side of the football, the Steelers' offensive line turned in another horrific performance -- something that is becoming routine in Baltimore. Najeh Davenport and Gary Russell combined for 47 yards on 18 carries (2.61 yards per carry). Merriam Webster's has a perfect description of the offensive line's performance: "pa•thet•ic: pitifully inferior or inadequate."

Exactly.

Conclusion
As disappointing as the Steelers' performance was, on both sides of the football, the team has earned the opportunity to turn the page and try again. And before we decide to throw dirt on the Steelers' season just remember that the twelve playoff teams went 5-7 the final weekend. And though the Steelers struggled over the final ten games of the regular season here's a look at the records of the other playoff teams over that same period:

Team	Wins	Losses	Pct.
New England	10	0	1.000
Dallas	8	2	.800
Green Bay	8	2	.800
San Diego	8	2	.800
Indianapolis	7	3	.700
Jacksonville	7	3	.700
N.Y. Giants	6	4	.600
Pittsburgh	6	4	.600
Seattle	6	4	.600
Tennessee	5	5	.500
Tampa Bay	5	5	.500
Washington	5	5	.500

So if the Steelers are entering the playoff tournament playing less than their best take solace in two indisputable facts:

1. There are playoff teams playing worse than they are.


2. Cleveland was 8-2 in their final ten games, and missed out on the playoffs by losing to Cincinnati, and then watching Kerry Collins lead Tennessee to a fourth quarter comeback on the road in Indianapolis.

Steelers @ Baltimore: The Matchups

The Steelers go against an inferior opponent this week, one that they should beat handily -- stop us if you've heard this before -- but before anyone dismisses the Ravens as something something akin to a nuisance on the way to the playoffs remember this:

• In the last eleven regular season meetings with the Ravens, the Steelers have a record of 6-5.


• During that same period, on average, the Ravens have scored 19.45 points per game while the Steelers have scored 20.


• The Steelers have not won a game in Baltimore since October 27, 2002; and have not had 100 yards rushing in a game played in Baltimore since that game.


• Since then, in games played in Baltimore, the Steelers have been outscored, on average, 21.5-9 and have averaged 60 yards rushing (including 21 yards in the most recent game in Baltimore -- November 26, 2006)

With all of that in mind, here is a look at his week's matchups:

Baltimore Offense v. Steelers Defense
Average total yards per game: Baltimore offense 23rd (299.9) v. Steelers defense 1st (261.9).

Average net rushing yards per game: Baltimore offense 18th (107.8) v. Steelers defense 3rd (83.9)

Average net passing yards per game: Baltimore offense 22nd (192.1) v. Steelers defense 3rd (178.0)

Average points per game: Baltimore offense 25th (16.53) v. Steelers defense 3rd (16.13)

Steelers Offense v. Baltimore Defense
Average total yards per game: Steelers offense 17th (331.7) v. Baltimore defense 7th (304.1)

Average net rushing yards per game: Steelers offense 3rd (141.2) v. Baltimore defense 2nd (81.5)

Average net passing yards per game: Steelers offense 25th (190.5) v. Baltimore defense 22nd (222.6)

Average points per game: Steelers offense: 8th (24.8) v. Baltimore defense 24th (24.2)

Special Teams
Average yards per punt return: Baltimore 10th (10.0) v. Steelers 30th (6.3)

Average yards allowed per punt return: Baltimore 22nd (10.3) v. Steelers 16th (9.0)

Average yards per kick return: Baltimore 8th (23.8) v. Steelers 20th (22.1)

Average yards allowed per kick return: Baltimore 25th (23.9) v. Steelers 17th (22.9)

Net yardage punting average: Baltimore 27th (35.5) v. Steelers 10th (37.8)

Opponent net yardage punting average: Baltimore 19th (37.3) v. Steelers 26th (38.3)

Miscellaneous
Turnover differential: Baltimore 32nd (-19) v. Steelers 8th (+5)

Time of possession: Baltimore 12th (30:25) v. Steelers 1st (33:58)

Red Zone touchdown efficiency: Baltimore 28th (41.5%) v. Steelers 10th (56.6%)

Red Zone defense (touchdowns): Baltimore 3rd (40.0%) v. Steelers 23rd (55.9%)

Sacks allowed: Baltimore 22nd (37) v. Steelers 28th (47)

Sacks: Baltimore 16th (32) v. Steelers 13th (34)

Some Individual Numbers
Passer rating: Troy Smith 73.6 (5 TDs, 7 INTs) v. Ben Roethlisberger 104.1 (32 TDs, 11 INTs)

Leading rushers: Willis McGahee 1,207 yards (4.1 yards per carry, 7 TDs) v. Willie Parker 1,316 yards (4.1 yards per carry, 2 TDs)
In an unusual development each team's leading rusher -- numbers 5 and 2 respectively in the league -- is out for Sunday's game. The statistics for the projected starters are: Musa Smith 181 yards (3.4 yards per carry, 2 TDs) v. Najeh Davenport 472 yards (5.0 yards per carry, 4 TDs)

Leading receiver: Derrick Mason 97 receptions -- #3 in the NFL -- (1,015 yards, 10.5 yards per catch, 5 TDs) v. Hines Ward 71 receptions (732 yards, 10.3 yards per catch, 7 TDs)

Steelers Clinch! -- Update

Update: December 24, 2007, 12:35 AM

An article in today's Pittsburgh Post-Gazette offers clarification on the Steelers' playoff situation:

"If San Diego (9-5) beats Denver tonight, the Chargers will become the No. 3 seed in the AFC and the Steelers No. 4. San Diego would own the tiebreaker against the Steelers based on a better conference record.

A San Diego victory would send Jacksonville to Heinz Field for the first-round playoff game as the No. 5 seed."

The Steelers' loss to the Jets may haunt them for quite some time.

Original Posting
Just finished listening to the Bengals' play-by-play announcers -- there's bad football, and then there's Bengals bad -- as the Bengals hang on to defeat Cleveland.

The difference in this game occurred at the end of the first half when, with 0:47 left on the clock and no time outs, Derek Anderson threw an interception (i.e. rather than taking a knee) to Leon Hall. The Bengals managed to put the ball in the end zone, going into the half with a 19-0 lead.

The second half was all Cleveland, but they ran out of time.

The Steelers' game against Baltimore may still have meaning however. The Steelers have a 7-4 record in the AFC whereas San Diego currently has a 7-3 record, with a game against Denver Monday night. So, it would appear that in order for the Steelers to be the #3 seed (thereby facing Cleveland/Tennessee) rather than the #4 seed (thereby facing Jacksonville) they need to win next week and get some help from Denver and/or Oakland (i.e. San Diego's opponent next week).

Steelers @ St. Louis: The Matchups

In his weekly press conference Mike Tomlin said that the Steelers have to "live in a tunnel," and "cannot ride the emotional rollercoaster" that comes with playing in the National Football League. While the players ponder just what all that means let them consider this: Of the six games played on Thursdays this season (i.e. excluding the opening game of the season -- we're trying to get a look at what the short week does to teams) the home team has a 4-2 record; and one of the visiting teams that won was Indianapolis visiting Atlanta.

With that in mind here's a look at some numbers:

St. Louis Offense v. Steelers Defense
Average total yards per game: St. Louis offense 23rd (300.7) v. Steelers defense 1st (258.00).

Average net rushing yards per game: St. Louis offense 21st (97.3) v. Steelers defense 3rd (83.4) Note: Steven Jackson had over 100 yards in the first half against Green Bay last week.

Average net passing yards per game: St. Louis offense 16th (203.4) v. Steelers defense 3rd (174.6)

Average points per game: St. Louis offense 29th (15.71) v. Steelers defense 1st (15.57)

Steelers Offense v. St. Louis Defense
Average total yards per game: Steelers offense 18th (325.0) v. St. Louis defense 17th (329.4)

Average net rushing yards per game: Steelers offense 3rd (139.4) v. St. Louis defense 19th (111.1)

Average net passing yards per game: Steelers offense 26th (185.6) v. St. Louis defense 17th (218.3)

Average points per game: Steelers offense: 8th (23.64) v. St. Louis defense 27th (24.93)

Special Teams
Average yards per punt return: St. Louis 3rd (12.1) v. Steelers 29th (6.5)
Note: Dante Hall is now on injured reserve with a high ankle sprain. In the game against Green Bay the Packers were forced to punt once, and that went for a touchback.

Average yards allowed per punt return: St. Louis 18th (9.7) v. Steelers 17th (8.9)

Average yards per kick return: St. Louis 18th (22.9) v. Steelers 26th (21.3)
Note: Dante Hall is now on injured reserve with a high ankle sprain. In the game against Green Bay rookie Derek Stanley returned six kicks for a total of 121 yards.

Average yards allowed per kick return: St. Louis 32nd (28.2) v. Steelers 13th (22.2)

Net yardage punting average: St. Louis 7th (38.7) v. Steelers 10th (37.7)

Opponent net yardage punting average: St. Louis 31st (39.9) v. Steelers 24th (38.1)

Miscellaneous
Turnover differential: St. Louis 23rd (-7) v. Steelers 12th (+3)

Time of possession: St. Louis 8th (31:01) v. Steelers 1st (33:48)

Red Zone touchdown efficiency: St. Louis 26th (41.7%) v. Steelers 10th (56.3%)

Red Zone defense (touchdowns): St. Louis 26th (57.4%) v. Steelers 19th (53.1%)

Sacks allowed: St. Louis 17th (27) v. Steelers 24th (38)

Sacks: St. Louis 18th (27) v. Steelers 8th (33)

Some Individual Numbers
Passer rating: Marc Bulger 71.1 (7 TDs, 11 INTs) v. Ben Roethlisberger 100.5 (29 TDs, 11 INTs)

Leading rushers: Steven Jackson 862 yards (4.2 yards per carry, 5 TDs) v. Willie Parker 1,317 yards (4.1 yards per carry, 2 TDs)

Leading receiver: Torry Holt 83 receptions (1,055 yards, 12.7 yards per catch, 7 TDs) v. Hines Ward 66 receptions (677 yards, 10.3 yards per catch, 7 TDs)

A Little Perspective Goes a Long Way

"When you hit adversity, you see what type of players you have on your team . . . [w]ho's going to quit? Who's going to keep fighting? The encouraging thing is we fought to the end."

A quote from a Steelers player after yesterday's game? Actually it's a statement that Hines Ward made -- December 4, 2005 -- in the aftermath of a loss to the Cincinnati Bengals that seemingly ended Pittsburgh's playoff hopes. All fans of the Black & Gold know what happened after that: the team won its final four regular season games (including a game in the dome at Minnesota) to finish at 11-5, made the playoffs, and went on to win the fifth Super Bowl in franchise history.

The 2007 edition of the Steelers compares favorably, statistically speaking, to that 2005 team. Here's a look at some of the numbers through fourteen games:

• Net rushing yards: 2005, 1,672 v. 2007, 1,952


• Net passing yards: 2005, 2,413 v. 2007, 2,598


• Avg. number of offensive plays per game: 2005, 55.93 v. 2007, 63.43


• Points scored: 2005, 295 v. 2007, 331.


• Net rushing yards allowed: 2005, 1,154 v. 2007, 1,168


• Net passing yards allowed: 2005, 2,711 v. 2007, 2,444


• Avg. number of offensive plays allowed: 2005, 58.86 v. 2007, 57.57


• Points allowed: 2005, 234 v. 2007, 211

Clearly everything is relative. The doom-and-gloom surrounding the team now is but a temporal thing. If the Steelers can win their next two games, thereby clinching the division, this two game losing streak will be a distant memory -- at least until they face Jacksonville during Wild Card Weekend.

You Could Look it Up -- Update

With the Steelers losing to Jacksonville, teams that have lost to New England are now 4-8 in the following week and have been outscored 148-223.

Original Post
We're not sure what to make of this, but of the twelve teams the Patriots beat prior to beating the Steelers, eleven of them played the following week (Cincinnati lost to New England in week four and had a bye the following week). In those eleven games, the teams that had lost to the Patriots the previous week have a combined record of 4-7 and have been outscored by a combined score 126-194.

Of course, included in those totals are two games against Buffalo, and single games against the Bengals, Dolphins, Jets, and Redskins amongst others.

Meanwhile the Steelers are 3-0 following their three previous losses, and won those games by a combined score of 48-13 (included in that is the 3-0 win over Miami).

Jacksonville v. Steelers: Instant First Half Analysis

As we pointed out Saturday Jacksonville has a winning record when losing the coin toss, so the fact that the Steelers won the toss represented something of an early setback.

First Quarter
Obviously the offense was just pathetic. They gained 41 yards, twenty-one rushing and sixteen passing, but with Ben Roethlisberger being sacked twice for a total loss of seventeen yards the official passing statistic for the first quarter was -1 yards.

Defensively all that can be said is that they adjusted as the quarter went on, and after allowing a forty-two yard drive on Jacksonville's first possession the Jags netted a total of 13 yards on the other two possessions of the quarter.


Second Quarter
Thank God for Adam Podlesh. The horrible effort by the Jaguars' punter, from deep in his own territory, was the equivalent of a turnover. And Ben Roethlisberger's third down 18 yard touchdown pass exceeded his total for the entire first quarter. However the inability of the Steelers' offense to do anything with their next two possessions of the quarter -- they had -1 total yards -- allowed the Jaguars to turn the field position battle back in their favor.

As pathetic as the Steelers' offense played the defense has been an even bigger disappointment. Not stopping Maurice Jones-Drew on the fourth down carry (as a UCLA alum I love Maurice, but come on!) was a back breaker. All told, the two scoring drives by Jacksonville took 18 plays and covered 110 yards. Fred Taylor already has 72 yards rushing, Mr. Jones-Drew has 20, and David Garrard has 6 -- Jacksonville is more than on their way to a 100 yard rushing day.


Conclusion
The Steelers have just played one of their worst thirty minutes of football, but only trail by three points. Improvement is likely to result in a Steelers' win, however another half like the first will almost certainly result in a loss.

Cincinnati v. Steelers: The Good, the Bad, & the Ugly

For the first time since 2004 the Steelers defeated the Cincinnati Bengals in Pittsburgh. Like all games there were things for Steelers fans to feel good about, and other things to make them cringe.

The Good
Saying that the Steelers' defense played "well" Sunday night is an understatement, in the extreme. The defense held the Bengals' offense to a season low point total (10), nearly 70 yards below their season average in rushing (23 yards v. 90.6 yards), and almost 100 yards below their season average in passing yards (175 yards v. 270.5). But as good as all of that is it is especially impressive when considering the tough spot that the defense found itself throughout the evening.

On three different occasions the Bengals began drives inside the Steelers' 30 yard line, and on two other occasions they began drives at their own 47 yard line. The sum total of those five drives was that the Bengals ended up with two field goal attempts, missing one. Statistically the Steelers are the #1 defense in the NFL, and Sunday evening they played like the #1 defense in the NFL.

An honorable mention has to go to the beleaguered offensive line -- no sacks (okay, one . . . for a safety . . . was negated because of a questionable defensive holding call) and decent (if not spectacular) rushing yardage -- 101 total for the Steelers -- allow the linemen to feel pretty good about things heading into their toughest game of the season.

One other honorable mention has to go to the Heinz Field grounds crew. Skewered by nearly everyone -- and rightfully so -- following the Monday night debacle versus Miami, according to Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer the field was in excellent condition before the rain began to fall. He did mention that conditions worsened as the rain continued to come down, but that the field was not any worse than it had been during prior visits to Pittsburgh.

The Bad
The poor quality of special teams play has been bemoaned frequently by everyone who watches Steelers football; but rather than kick/punt coverage, the problem against the Bengals was the kick/punt return teams.

The Bengals punted the ball three times and Alan Rossum was able to rack up five return yards. Total. Two kicks were returned for a total of 26 yards. Thirty-one total return yards on five opportunities? And the problem wasn't really Mr. Rossum -- he ran hard, for as long as he could, but there simply were not any seams for him to break through. Special teams coach Bob Ligashesky, and Assistant coach Amos Jones had to be pleased with the kick coverage teams (those units produced a turnover, and limited the Bengals to a combined average of 13.37 yards per return), but there is clearly more work to be done.

The Ugly
Willie Parker.

Fumbles.

Enough Said.

The Final Analysis
The game versus Cincinnati was the first of four games that the Steelers will play in less than three weeks, and it was important to get off to a good start -- which they did. However, the two most difficult games of the season lie ahead (versus New England 12/9, and Jacksonville 12/16) and their is still room, and a need, for much improvement especially along the offensive front and on special teams.

Fun Fact
After twelve games the Steelers have played seven games against six teams who have a losing record at this point in the season. Baltimore, Cincinnati, Denver, Miami, New York Jets, and San Francisco have combined for a 20-52 record (with Baltimore playing New England Monday night), for a .277 winning percentage. Conversely, the Steelers' next two opponents have a combined record of 19-4 (with New England playing Baltimore on Monday evening) for a .826 winning percentage.

Cincinnati v. Steelers: The Matchups

Over the course of the last three games Ben Roethlisberger has been sacked 16 times and Willie Parker has averaged 3.4 yards per carry (238 yards on 70 carries).

Wonder if offensive line coach Larry Zierlein is feeling any pressure?

Here's a look at the team matchups for the upcoming game Sunday evening:

Bengals Offense v. Steelers Defense
Avg. total yards per game: Bengals Offense, 5th (361.2) v. Steelers Defense, 1st (229.18)

Avg. net rushing yards per game: Bengals Offense, 24th (90.6) v. Steelers Defense, 3rd (77.1)

Avg. net passing yards per game: Bengals Offense, 3rd (270.5) v. Steelers Defense, 1st (154.1)

Third down conversions: Bengals Offense, 6th (47.6%) v. Steelers Defense, 12th (38.0%)

Avg. points per game: Bengals Offense, 6th (25.55) v. Steelers Defense, 1st (13.18)

Steelers Offense v. Bengals Defense
Avg. total yards per game: Steelers Offense, 10th (336.27) v. Bengals Defense, 28th (363.7)

Avg. net rushing yds per game: Steelers Offense, 2nd (141.73) v. Bengals Defense, 25th (120.5)

Avg. net passing yds per game: Steelers Offense, 18th (194.55) v. Bengals Defense, 26th (243.2)

Third down conversions: Steelers Offense, 2nd (48.4%) v. Bengals Defense, 17th (40.9%)

Avg. points per game: Steelers Offense, 7th (24.73) v. Bengals Defense, 29th (26.55)

Special Teams
Avg. yards per punt return: Cincinnati 31st (6.1); Steelers 29th (6.3)

Avg. yards allowed per punt return: Cincinnati 21st (10.2); Steelers 26th (11.4)

Avg. yards per kick return: Cincinnati 11th (24.2); Steelers 16th (23.4)

Avg. yards allowed per kick return: Cincinnati 19th (23.5); Steelers 20th (23.6)

Net yardage punting average: Cincinnati 28th (34.5); Steelers 10th (38.0)

Opponent net yardage punting average: Cincinnati 6th (36.3); Steelers 31st (40.3)


Miscellaneous
Turnover differential: Cincinnati 15th (+1); Steelers tied for 6th (+6)

Time of Possession: Cincinnati 16th (30:10); Steelers 1st (34:47)

Red Zone touchdown efficiency: Cincinnati 17th (50%); Steelers 6th (57.9%)

Red Zone defense (touchdowns): Cincinnati 6th (45%); Steelers 17th (52.4%)
Note: It isn't clear how important this statistic is -- New England is last in the percentage of touchdowns allowed relative to their opponents' red zone possessions at 70.8%.

I Predict a Disaster

The woeful condition of the turf at Heinz Field is something that occurs with the regularity of the swallows returning to Capistrano -- every single year. Now, with Pittsburgh high school football championship games to be played at the stadium Friday, Pitt playing on Saturday, and a little NFL game on Monday night, comes word from the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette of a unique "solution":

"Heinz Field will have a new look to it when the Steelers play the Dolphins Monday night.

It will have a whole new field.

The Post-Gazette has learned that the Steelers this weekend will cover their entire field with new sod, placing it over the DD GrassMaster field that is mostly composed of grass. However, that grass has deteriorated as usual into November and it won't be any better after the four WPIAL high school championship games are played at Heinz Field Friday, followed by Pitt vs. South Florida Saturday afternoon.

The current turf won't be replaced but covered up by the new sod, which is heavy enough that it won't have to be tied down. The work will begin after Pitt's game ends.

It's the first time sod will cover the DD GrassMaster that was installed four years ago . . .

The sod will stay in place through the rest of the 2007 NFL season."

And the prediction here is that Willie Parker will have the look of someone running on ice -- traction will be an issue, and a running game that has struggled the past couple of weeks will have something else about which to be concerned.

Lose to Arizona? Make 'em Walk Home

The Steelers simply couldn;t have played a worse game at a worse time.

For all who wish to wipe the ugly memory of a bad game from their minds as quickly as possible, please enjoy The Boss.

Preseason Impressions: Steelers @ Carolina

Was there ever a professional sporting event in which both teams were more inclined to forfeit to avoid playing at all? Jake Delhomme, perfectly well (physically), didn't play. Willy Parker, perfectly well (physically), stood behind Dan Kreider for a single play, watched Mr. Kreider take the handoff, and stood on the sideline for the rest of the evening.

The question then is, how to evaluate such a contest? With the deadline for roster cuts just hours away here's one take on who distinguished themselves and who did not.

Winners
1. Tyrone Carter: His spot on the roster was already solidified, but last night's performance only enhanced and solidified his position on the depth chart. Mr. Carter led the team in tackles, recovered a fumble (though as you will see shortly, not everyone sees that as a matter of skill) and was the only Steelers player to make it into the end zone.

2. William Gay: Sometimes being lucky is better than being good. The good folks at Football Outsiders believe that "[s]tripping the ball is a skill. Holding onto the ball is a skill. Pouncing on the ball as it is bouncing all over the place is not a skill." However true that is, when a player is fighting for his spot on the roster of 53 coming up with a turnover in the final preseason game is an extraordinarily good thing.

3. Mike Lorello: Whether or not he played well enough to stick, or even warrant a spot on the practice squad remains to be seen, but if he doesn't it won't be because of his performance Thursday evening. He was the defender on two passes (one complete, one incomplete), had two tackles, one assist, and two special teams tackles.

4. Gary Russell: It's tough to choose a standout offensive player after an evening when the offense mustered four field goals (unless of course the field goal kicker was the player be applauded), but following a lackluster first half (4 carries, 1 yard) Mr. Russell bounced back in the second half (albeit against defenders who were third or fourth on the Carolina depth chart) for 61 yards on 17 carries.

5. Willie Reid: After being called out by Pittsburgh Steelers Fanatic and his head coach for doing a poor job on punt returns during the preseason, Mr. Reid had a 30-yard return, and averaged 9.8 yards on four returns.

Losers
1. Chukky Okobi: He played for a great deal of the game, and didn't perform especially well. This was an opportunity to back up his stated belief that he is one of the 53 best players on the Pittsburgh roster -- we are not convinced.

2. Brian St. Pierre: Came out of the game with an injured toe. An injured toe. Really. Fighting for spot on the roster and he couldn't tough it out? Of course his 3-for-10 passing performance didn't exactly leave anyone wanting more.

3,4, & 5. Matt Spaeth, Jonathan Dekker, Cody Boyd: The top two tight ends on the depth chart sat out the game, and none of the backups caught a ball. Or blocked especially well. Playbooks please!

Epilogue
The Steelers finished the preseason with a 4-1 record. The last time they played five preseason games (1997) they were 5-0, and finished the regular season with an 11-5 record. That season they went on to the AFC Championship game, losing to Denver 24-21.

This preseason's record is the best the Steelers have had since 2001, when the team was 3-1. That squad went 13-3 in the regular season, and lost in the AFC Championship game to New England, 24-17.

Who's In, Who's Out?

With cut-down day looming large on the horizon -- the Steelers have to cut 22 players Saturday morning -- here are the players who on Thursday will be playing for a roster spot:

1. Dallas Baker (WR): Needs a miracle, though at 6'3", 206 lbs he may warrant a spot on the practice squad.


2. Cody Boyd (TE): At 6'8", 264 lbs it's a pity he can't play offensive tackle.


3. Marquis Cooper (LB): He and Cody Boyd have both worn #48 this preseason giving rise to the question is this the "Curse of Matt Cushing?"


4. Carey Davis (RB)
   
5. Gary Russell (RB)
   
6. Verron Haynes (RB): These guys are all very similar, but the numbers would seem to indicate that at least one, and probably two, of them is going to be on the outside looking in.
   


7. Jon Dekker (TE): A favorite of Bill Cowher's. Unfortunately for him Mr. Cowher is now at home in North Carolina.
   


8. John Kuhn (FB): A crowd favorite who, because he was active for eight games last season, is not eligible for the practice squad.
   


9. William Gay (CB): His crushing hit, delivered during the Hall of Fame game, got everyone's attention. However, not much has happened for this young man since.


10. Jovon Johnson (CB): The memory of his fumble recovery and return for a touchdown may help lessen the sting of being one of the Steelers' final cuts.


11. Mike Lorello (S): He has played well in spurts and has contributed on special teams, but being buried on the depth chart behind Troy Polamalu and Tyrone Carter means Mr. Lorello will be looking for work come Saturday afternoon.


12. Grant Mason (S): Finds himself behind Ryan Clark and Anthony Smith on the depth chart.
    


13. Darnell Stapleton (C): Whatever else happens, at least one center on the depth chart will be cut.


14. Brandon Torrey (OT): With the way that the Steelers' tackles have struggled in the preseason, the Eagles' game not withstanding, the fact that Mr. Torrey hasn't played speaks volumes.


15. Scott Paxson (NT): Limited work in camp, simply did not do enough to supplant anyone else.


16. Ryan McBean (DE): Ditto.


17. Gerran Walker (WR): Given his history of injuries in college, and his inability to block effectively, it's a credit to his work ethic that he wasn't cut already.


18. Ron Stanley (LB): Has had a good, not great, camp both on the field and as a special teams player. May be a Practice Squad invitee.


19. Cameron Stephenson (G): Simply has not distinguished himself.


20. Bryan Randall (QB): Very limited play may be a prelude to the Practice Squad.


21. Brian St. Pierre (QB): Had a reasonably good camp, but it seems unlikely that the Steelers will be willing to carry three quarterbacks -- at least early in the season.


22. Matt Spaeth (TE): A big disappointment, may not be worthy of even a spot on the Practice Squad.


23. Jason Capizzi (OT): Has had a good camp and will either be claimed on waivers or added to the Practice Squad. The only reason Mr. Capizzi will be the odd man out is because of the uncertainty at center.


24. Marvin Philip (C): This preseason was a great opportunity for Mr. Philip to show himself capable of at least being the backup to Sean Mahan. Mr. Philip didn't step up. As a result the Steelers will keep experienced, if ineffectual, Chukky Okobi for at least one more season.

Once cut players clear waivers a maximum of eight can be added to the team's Practice Squad.

Preseason Impressions: Philadelphia v. Steelers

I wanted to watch the game a second time before unleashing my comments upon the world, and having done that here's what I I'm pretty sure I saw:

#1. Barring injuries, the Steelers defense may be the best in the NFL this season: How much worse could things have gone for the Steelers during the first quarter? A horrible interception, a Gardocki-esque punt from their own end zone, a goal line fumble -- the scoreboard could have been an ugly thing. Instead, following the interception and after an initial first down, the Steelers' defense pushed Philadelphia's offense back towards midfield. Building upon that early effectiveness the front line defense limited the Eagles to 89 total yards in the first half, and a third down efficiency of 14%. But beyond the numbers what has been especially impressive has been the way the unit is hitting (see William Gay in preseason game #1, and Anthony Smith in preseason game #3). It appears that the defense is developing into not just an effective group, but a nasty group as well -- something that all fans of the Black & Gold would celebrate.

#2. The different faces of Ben Roethlisberger: At times the Steelers' quarterback showed some good decision-making skills (e.g. checking off to underneath receivers, using his feet to avoid pressure, throwing the ball away when nothing was available) and was fairly accurate with his passes. Then, at other times, he flashed the poor judgment (i.e. one pass intercepted, and a second "pass" seemingly thrown -- from inside the Philadelphia 20 yard line -- while falling backwards) that ruined his 2006 season. Ben Roethlisberger's performance against the Eagles illustrated what fans have known for some time: when he'good, he's as good as anybody. When he's not . . . he begins to resemble something akin to David Klingler.

#3. Speaking of inconsistent, ladies and gentlemen please welcome Santonio Holmes: On a number of occasions Mr. Holmes could be seen vigorously blocking downfield on running plays -- a wonderful sight to behold! His second quarter, 22 yard catch (on 3rd and 4) demonstrated his fearlessness in going across the middle, and good hands. However, in the first quarter (following Daniel Sepulveda's 14-yard punt) he failed to recognize an impending Eagles' blitz and the fact that he was the hot receiver. Mr. Holmes never looked back for a quickly thrown ball, and Mr. Roethlisberger's pass nearly hit him in the back. Then, in the second quarter, on a deep route Mr. Holmes seemingly quit on the play, only to have the pass thrown in his direction. Despite a seemingly half-hearted attempt to get to the ball, the pass fell incomplete. Mr. Holmes has the physical skills to be an impact player in the NFL, but it seems apparent that his education as a professional player still has a long way to go.

#4. The offensive line would like to know why everyone is so worried: Zero sacks. Seventy-six yards rushing. Perfect blocking on a numerous screen passes. Here's hoping that the performance versus the Eagles augurs well for the upcoming season.

#5: Willie Reid and Ricardo Colclough -- separated at birth?: As punt returners go, someone tell me what the difference is between Willie Reid and Ricardo Colclough. Fair catches despite having room to run, muffed punts . . . Cedric Wilson has been the most effective returner of the preseason, and Mr. Reid has three catches as a receiver -- how patient should an organization be in waiting for potential to translate into performance?

First Cuts are Announced

According to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette the Steelers have cut ten players from their roster, including former Pitt star and NFL veteran Kevan Barlow.

The others being released are:

Mike Barr (P)
Larry Croom (RB)
Eric Fowler (WR)
Connor Hughes (K)
Derrick Jones (DE)
Richard Koonce (LB)
Donovan Raiola (C)
Jared Retkofsky (Long Snapper)
Dan Sheldon (WR)

All NFL teams have until 11:00AM this Saturday to reduce their roster to 53 players. After those cuts are made players can be added to the Practice Squad.

A quick check of the roster, as listed on steelers.com shows 75 players remaining.

Coming into Focus?

Ed Bouchette of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette has an article in today's paper, and it seems that a starting offensive front may have been decided upon:
"The Steelers' search for an offensive line has entered the bonus round and may well be settled.

Mike Tomlin said he is closer to deciding on his starting line, yet with the most important preseason game coming up for starters, he already may have picked one.

After admittedly going over the video from the game Saturday night at Washington 'with a fine-tooth comb,' Tomlin's starting offensive line yesterday could be the one that opens the season in Cleveland Sept. 9.

From left to right they are tackle Marvel Smith, guard Alan Faneca, center Sean Mahan, guard Kendall Simmons and tackle Willie Colon."

Of course a development of that sort calls into question the future -- both short-term and long-term -- with the Steelers of Chukky Okobi. His $2,000,000 salary this year escalates above the $3,000,000 level in 2008 and 2009, so it seems very unlikely that he would survive for long.

Preseason Impressions: Steelers v. Redskins

One thing that will almost always impinge upon one's writing/blogging time is being hit by a car while cycling.

I definitely don't recommend it to any of you. However, having picked the asphalt out of my wounds I can provide the amazing insights that you have all come to expect. So without further adieu, here are four thoughts I came away with Saturday evening.

#1. The Red Zone offense left something to be desired: The Steelers had nineteen offensive plays inside the Redskins 20 line and could only come up with 12 points? The conclusion of the Steelers' final drive was especially disappointing -- appearances are almost always deceiving, but didn't it appear that Gary Russell was more than a little hesitant "hitting" the line? Of course the root of the problem was some very mediocre play by the still-evolving offensive front. Which leads seamlessly to . . .

#2. The Offensive Line is starting to scare me: Listening to Tunch Ilkin trying to guess as to why the Steelers' coaches are utilizing their offensive linemen the way they are makes me realize that if there is a method to the madness it isn't readily apparent even to those close to the team. The hope here is that a left tackle will be discovered soon -- as Ed Bouchette points out in his article Trai Essex looked horrible against Washington; but truth be told the whole unit has played rather poorly the last two weeks.

#3. Blitzing may be plan "A," but what is plan "B"?: While the starting units of both teams were on the field it seemed as though the Washington offense was able to effectively, and consistently, combat the Steelers' propensity for blitzing by passing over the blitzer. I certainly do not want to hit this point too hard (i.e. how much criticism does the defense deserve inasmuch as they gave up ten points?), but Chris Cooley (5 catches, 60 yards) probably wishes he could go up against the Steelers defense all preseason long.

#4. Daniel Sepulveda is the MAN: On four kicks the Steelers new punter averaged 50 yards per kick, and more importantly had a net average of 48.5 meaning (obviously) that the Redskins simply didn't return his kicks with any effectiveness. In three games MR. Sepulveda is averaging 46.8 yards per kick (after averaging 37.3 yards per kick in the Hall of Fame game he averaged 49.8 yards per kick versus Green Bay, and 50 versus Washington) with a net of 44.5 yards. Additionally Mr. Sepulveda is doing a good job as holder for extra points and field goals.

Like most fans I'm very conflicted when it comes to preseason. On the one hand I want to see the lesser known players play so that I can make my own assessments. On the other hand, if the game is worth playing it's worth winning. The play of the Steelers on Saturday was less than inspired, but a win -- any win -- is always a good thing.

Making the Big Time

All of the attention of the Steeler Nation is one thing, but a person -- say, a young head coach in the NFL -- really knows they've arrived when they are the subject of an article in the New York Times. Such is the case of Mike Tomlin who is the subject of an article by Clifton Brown.

There isn't much that is new, but it's an indication of just how far the Steelers' head man has come and just how quickly he's arrived.