Looking Forward to the 2023 Draft: Mock Draft Final

 With round one of the actual 2023 NFL Draft just a couple of days away, it is time for one more dive into an attempt to mock out just who the Steelers may choose with their seven selections.

Pick #17
It really is incredible how many quality players are available here.  Most notable in this third mock is that Deonte Banks has moved up the PFF board, moving past Joey Porter Jr. to the #18 position in PFF's rankings.  In this mock, as in previous iterations, PFF's #1 ranked tight end (Dalton Kincaid) is available, as is their top-rated safety (Brian Branch), the #2 ranked interior defensive lineman (Calijah Kancey), the #3 edge defender (Myles Murphy), and the previously mentioned Deonte Banks who is PFF's third-rated cornerback.

During Monday's press conference, Mike Tomlin made it clear that he does not see any glaring weaknesses in his team, implying that they will look to select the best player available.  He also discussed the evolution of specialization in the NFL, specifically mentioning situational defensive backs as something new to the NFL schemes. With that in mind, along with the knowledge that cornerback is a position with significant depth in this draft, the selection here is Brian Branch. 

SELECTION: Brian Branch (S/Alabama)

Pick #32
In this mock draft, some of the more notable players available here were PFF's #1 rated offensive guard (O'Cyrus Torrence), their #1 rated linebacker (Jack Campbell), the #3 tight end (Darnell Washington), the #2 interior defender (Mazi Smith), and the #5 offensive tackle (Dawand Jones). The Steelers' offseason moves have included signing two offensive guards, and while a spot is likely to open later this offseason (i.e., Kendrick Green seems at risk of being cut) it seems less likely the team would go that route with this pick. Meanwhile, in previous mock drafts, I have argued that the defensive line is an area of need, and Smith would be a quality selection. Linebacker? Campbell is good, excelling as a run stopper but struggling a bit in pass coverage. As for tight end, PFF sees Washington as a third rounder. 

As a fan, I was not enamored with any of these options but also did not want to reach down the board to take a cornerback. There is a lot of value in this pick, especially for teams without first-round selections (e.g., Miami and Denver).

SELECTION: Mazi Smith (DL/Michigan)

Pick #49
Having done a fair number of mock drafts, at this point a lot of the names are recognizable -- Tyrique Stevenson (CB, Miami), D.J. Turner (CB, Michigan), Antonio Johnson (PFF's #2 rated safety, Texas A&M). But a couple of offensive players caught my eye this time around: Zach Charbonnet (RB, UCLA) and Cody Mauch (T, North Dakota State). As in my second mock draft, I am always ready to show some love to my alma mater and this time is no exception. Charbonnet was a dynamic performer in his final season at UCLA, both as a runner and as a pass catcher. While I recognize that selecting a running back is improbable, some team is going to get a phenomenal talent. But, Cody Mauch is just too good to pass up -- in the past three seasons he gave up a combined total of three sacks, five QB hits, and 16 QB hurries.

SELECTION: Cody Mauch (OT, North Dakota State)

Pick #80
This is another spot where trading down, especially if the Steelers were to get a second or third-round selection in next year's draft makes some sense. However, the player I ultimately selected is rated as sixth-best at his position by PFF and "is one of the best coverage linebackers in the class, boasting a 6-foot-8 wingspan and 4.49 speed."

SELECTION: Dorian Williams (LB/Tulane)

Pick #120
So many offensive linemen are still available here, including PFF's third-best offensive guard (Chandler Zavala, N.C. State).  Also notable is the fifth-best safety (Anthony Johnson Jr., Iowa State). But because the Steelers next pick is not until 241, I was willing to look down the board a bit to see what else might be available, ultimately decided on another cornerback.

SELECTION: Jaylon Jones (CB/Texas A&M)

Pick #241
Seventh-round picks are seventh-round picks for a reason (Brock Purdy notwithstanding). Athleticism is key, and if a team can find a player good enough to stick to the roster that is a win. In this mock draft there were just a bushel of linemen, both offensive and defensive, along with wide receivers and running backs. But the player who seemed to offer the most value, though a bit undersized and a USC alum, is PFF's seventh-rated center.

SELECTION:  Brett Neilon (C/USC)

Pick #251
Who really knows? However, this linebacker has performed well in pass coverage but missed more tackles than one would prefer.

SELECTION: Aubrey Miller Jr. (LB/Jackson State)

And here is how PFF graded me:

Definitely a mixed back. The only selection I would change is choosing Dorian Williams in the third round -- chances seem pretty good that he would have been there at #120. 

Looking Forward to the 2023 Draft: Mock Draft #2

 With the news that the Steelers had swapped 7th-round picks with the Los Angeles Rams in order to get Alan Robinson, not to mention all of the other moves they have made this offseason, I thought now would be as good a time as any to run a new mock draft.

Using the Pro Football Focus draft simulator again, I pumped up the "Randomness" setting just a bit because of the numerous offseason moves made by Omar Khan.  The other settings remained the same.  Here is how the draft unfolded:

Selection #17
The players that fell to the Steelers in this simulation were truly random: Peter Skoronski (OT, Northwestern), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR, Ohio State), Calijah Kancey (DL, Pitt), Dalton Kincaid (TE, Utah), and Deonte Banks (CB, Maryland).

The injury-riddled season suffered by Smith-Njigba leaves me hesitant to select him here, though the story of being united with his brother in Pittsburgh would be a heartwarming one.

This is as low as I have seen Skoronski fall in any of the simulations I have run via PFF, and though some who are far more knowledgeable than I have some concerns about his arm length there seems to be no doubt about his ability to play offensive guard in the NFL. But with the Steelers acquiring Nate Herbig and Isaac Seumalo this offseason, is this the spot to go guard?  I think not.

The draft consensus is that Dalton Kincaid is the best tight end in the draft, but this seems too high a selection for that position (i.e., the Steelers' need is not that acute).

That leaves Kancey and Banks.  Getting Banks, despite the acquisition of Patrick Peterson, makes some sense -- who better to tutor a new member of the defensive backfield?  Of course, the same could be said of Cam Hayward mentoring Kancey, though NFL.com's Lance Zierlein sees the Pitt defensive lineman as being undersized as a run-stopper. Ultimately, it feels like a coin flip between these two; and though I love Kancey and have consistently selected him other draft simulations, I opted for Deonte Banks this time.  SELECTION: Deonte Banks, CB/Maryland

Selection #32
Though the names here are not as highly-publicized as those closer to the top of the draft, the quality of players available at the beginning of the second round is pretty remarkable, with the highest-rated available players being Will McDonald IV (Edge, Iowa State), Emmanuel Forbes (CB, Mississippi State), Felix Anudike-Uzomah (Edge, Kansas State), Mazi Smith (DL, Michigan), BJ Ojulari (Edge, LSU), and Dawand Jones (OT, Ohio State).

Of the edge rushers available, it has been widely reported that Anudike-Uzomah visited the Steelers South Side offices recently. There is little doubt that Mazi Smith would be an upgrade for the defensive line, an area of particular need on the defense (if only because injuries seem to have plagued this group the past few seasons). Also, though the first-round selection of a cornerback would seemingly preclude selecting another here, Forbes is a compelling prospect who has started since his freshman season. Dawand Jones seems a bit too entrenched as a right offensive tackle -- the Steelers seem to value position flexibility along the offensive line the way the Pirates want their players to play multiple positions. After a lot of flip-flopping, I went with Anudike-Uzomah. SELECTION: Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Edge/Kansas State

Selection #49
Want another cornerback? This spot offers multiple options including Tyrique Stevenson (Miami), Julius Brents (Kansas State), Garrett Williams (Syracuse), and Tre'Vius Hodges-Tomlinson (TCU).  All but Williams, who is still rehabilitating following knee surgery are attractive options.  Also available here is the best running back in the draft: Zach Charbonnet (UCLA).  As a proud UCLA alumnus, I admit to some bias, but I can say with a clear conscience that he is an impact player -- the Steelers could do worse (though I know in my head that there is no chance of them selecting a running back here). Having said all of that, I focused on Daiyan Henley (ILB, Washington State), PFF's highest rated inside linebacker. At 6'2", 225 lbs., he seems a bit undersized, but this synopsis from PFF sold me: "Henley is a converted receiver who now covers them with ease. He also tracks them down in space, as he missed only five tackles on 97 attempts last season." SELECTION: Daiyan Henley, LB/Washington State

Selection #80
Williams (Syracuse), and Hodges-Tomlinson (TCU) were available here as well. But the name that jumped out was that of Antonio Johnson (S, Texas A&M). Rated by PFF as the #2 safety in this year's draft, and 64th best player overall, he is just too good to pass up. SELECTION: Anotonio Johnson, S/Texas A&M

Selection #120
Now into the middle of the fourth round, this is where scouting and evaluation mean so much. These players are still available to select because of perceived flaws in their respective games. Some of those available include Nick Herbig (Edge, Wisconsin) -- a selection of Herbig would give the Steelers their second brother combination on the roster -- Anthony Johnson Jr. (S, Iowa State), Chandler Zavala (OG, NC State), Isaiah McGuire (Edge, Missouri), and Dorian Williams (LB, Tulane). Given all the off-season acquisitions along the offensive line, it seems unlikely that a selection of Zavala would happen here, yet, he is the third-highest rated OG according to PFF. Meanwhile, Williams is #5 at his position according to PFF and " is one of the best coverage linebackers in the class, boasting a 6-foot-8 wingspan and 4.49 speed." That also translates to special teams. SELECTION: Dorian Williams, LB/Tulane

Selection #241
There is no greater value pick available in this draft. SELECTION: Dorian Thompson-Robinson, QB/UCLA. No, the Steelers do not need a QB. Or do they? With only two quarterbacks on the roster, they are sure to bring in someone for training camp. Moreover, DTR is the kind of athletic quarterback that "makes run defense more challenging." He is a winner and a leader.

Selection #251
Moving down a bit in the swap of picks with the Rams, it seems best to find someone who can contribute on special teams -- chances of finding a starter are pretty remote. PFF's #15 ranked safety, Quidell Johnson (Memphis) is available, as is the #10 linebacker, Troy Brown (Mississippi). SELECTION: Troy Brown, LB/Mississippi

And here is how PFF graded this draft:

As can be seen, PFF did not hate the DTR choice nearly as much as some Steelers fans no doubt will!