Season in Review: Third Down (2008)

We press on with our look at the performance of the Pittsburgh offense on a down-by-down basis with an examination of third down. As you may recall, the 2008 performance of the offense on downs one and two was pretty poor; so what did that mean, overall, for the offense?

As with previous downs we look at the mix of run-to-pass for 2008 in the historical context of the past nine seasons (i.e. 2000-2008, inclusive):

	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004
Rushing Plays, 3rd Down	56	73	60	48	64
Passing Plays, 3rd Down	174	162	163	179	155
Total Off. Plays, 3rd Down	230	235	223	227	219

	2005	2006	2007	2008
Rushing Plays, 3rd Down	66	36	49	30
Passing Plays, 3rd Down	126	181	172	194
Total Off. Plays, 3rd Down	192	217	221	224

Despite the poor performance in the early downs Pittsburgh's offense "only" faced the fourth highest number of third downs during this nine season period. Of course the most important thing about third down is whether or not the offense converted it into a first down. We look at that in two parts. First, a breakdown of the offensive plays by distance required for a first down/touchdown:


The numbers never lie ~ while the number of short-yardage plays was far from its highest level (i.e. 106 in 2004) there was a slight improvement over 2007. Of more interest is the fact that the four seasons in which the offense has had the fewest third-and-shorts have been the past four seasons. Clearly this past seasons's early down struggles were no anomaly. On the other hand the number of "third-and-who-are-we-kidding" plays (i.e. more than ten yards needed) was at its lowest point since 20003 (also 42), and was tied for the third lowest total of the past nine seasons.

With that in mind we now look at the all-important third down conversion rate. Here is how it looks for the past nine seasons:


A pretty unique "pattern" emerges, one that has involved a couple of two year trends (downward in 2001 and 2002, upward in 2006 and 2007) and some swings back-and-forth in-between. Coincidentally, in the four most recent seasons the two that saw the worst third down conversion rate were 2005 and 2008 ~ seasons that saw the Steelers win the Super Bowl.

Season in Review: Second Down (2008)

We wondered how Pittsburgh's poor first down performance in 2008 would impact subsequent downs.

And now we know.

Let's begin with a breakdown of rushing plays to passing plays:

	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004
Rushing Plays	196	182	155	151	230
Passing Plays	144	173	209	186	112
Total Off. Plays, 1st Down	340	355	364	337	342

	2005	2006	2007	2008
Rushing Plays	178	160	174	152
Passing Plays	150	177	165	185
Total Off. Plays, 1st Down	328	337	339	337

The median number of second down plays for the period 2000-2008 is 339, making 2008 about as average as average can be, at least in that respect. That fact makes the number of rushing plays called all the more alarming. Specifically, 152 rushing plays on second down is the second lowest total in the past nine seasons (only 2003, a season in which the Steelers went 6-10, was worse). Not surprisingly the number of pass plays called on second down in 2008 was the third highest of the past nine seasons, and the highest since 2003.

As mentioned earlier, the Pittsburgh offense performed poorly on first down but the question now is "how poorly?" To answer that we look at a breakdown of the second down plays by the distance required (i.e. for a first down or touchdown):


What the graph shows us is that the number of second down plays on which Pittsburgh required five yards or fewer was tied for the lowest number in the past nine seasons (88, tied with 2007). The number of plays requiring 6-10 yards was at its fourth highest during the past nine seasons.

Of even greater concern the number of second down plays on which more than ten yards was required reached a four year high and was at its fourth highest point of the past nine seasons. This fact can only mean that the number of first down plays in 2008 which resulted in lost yardage was amongst the highest of any season in the past nine.

Finally we look at how the Pittsburgh offense operated on second down, offering up a look at the average gain on second down and the difference between the average passing play and the average rushing play:


The notion that the Pittsburgh Steelers are a "run first" team is simply a fiction.

While second down passes averaged more than six yards (6.36) for only the second time in the past nine seasons, rushing plays had their second worst average (3.76 yards) over the same period (in 2003 the Steelers averaged 2.95 yards per second down rushing attempt).

First down performance was poor, forcing the Steelers to throw the football more often. However on those occasions when a rushing play was called the offense performed as poorly as at any time in recent memory.

We are afraid to examine third down ~ let's take the weekend to prepare ourselves.

Season in Review: First Down (2008)

We are closing in on the conclusion of our "Season in Review" series for this season; and the evidence of that is that we now turn our attention to determine how Pittsburgh's offense performed by down (i.e. first, second, or third) and distance.

To begin with we look at just how many first down plays the Steelers' offense had in 2008 and what they did with those first down plays (i.e. did they run or pass?):

	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004
Rushing Plays	247	295	273	235	292
Passing Plays	182	167	214	199	147
Total Off. Plays, 1st Down	429	462	487	434	439

	2005	2006	2007	2008
Rushing Plays	286	252	259	253
Passing Plays	142	214	168	189
Total Off. Plays, 1st Down	428	466	427	442

What we see in the numbers is a renewed emphasis on passing the football in the early downs (a la 2006). The total number of first down plays in 2008 was the fourth highest of the past nine seasons, and the number of passing plays was also the fourth highest during this period.

However, despite having fifteen additional first down plays in 2008 as compared to 2007 the number of rushing plays declined. We can only guess as to the reason(s) for this trend, but the guess here is that the extraordinary number of sacks suffered by Pittsburgh quarterbacks must factor in to the play calling.

The other side of this particular coin is whether or not the Steelers are having success on first down ~ i.e. gaining good yardage. Anyone who watches the team closely already knows:



The first down rushing average in 2008 (3.56) was the worst in the past nine seasons, and the passing average (6.58) was third worst (in 2000 the Steelers' passing average on first down was 5.4 yards, and in 2001 in was 5.81).

Stated bluntly, on first down during the 2008 season the Steelers' offense stunk.

What impact this ineffectiveness had on successive downs we will see in the coming days.

Season in Review: The Return Units (2008)

As previously promised we now offer the second posting regarding the Steelers' special teams. Specifically we turn our attention to the kick and punt return units; and it should come as no surprise to anyone that the numbers for those two units are exceedingly poor.

For the kick return unit, their 20.3 average for each return of the 2008 regular season was the fourth lowest in the NFL (Baltimore averaged 20.1 yards per return, as did Green Bay, and Miami averaged 20.2 yards per return) and was the second lowest for a Super Bowl champion in the past nine seasons. Here is a ranking of the Super Bowl winners by kick return average for the seasons 2000-2008:

Season	Team	Kick Return Avg.
2002	Tampa Bay	24.1
2007	N.Y. Giants	23.9
2003	New England	23.8
2006	Indianapolis	23.6
2004	New England	23.3
2000	Baltimore	22.3
2005	Pittsburgh	21.6
2008	Pittsburgh	20.3
2001	New England	20.1

If there is any consolation to be taken from this is that winning the Super Bowl does not appear to be directly tied to performance in kick returns. However, there is no arguing with the fact that every yard gained on a kick return is one fewer yard the offense needs. By that logic the Steelers are making things tough on their offense.

As for the punt return unit, for the sixth time in the past nine seasons Pittsburgh's punt return unit performed below the NFL average ~ though this season the disparity was minimal (i.e. 9.08 v. 9.05). Here is a graphical look:


As frustrating as the punt return team was in 2008 ("get up the field Santonio!") their performance was nearly three yards better than in 2007 (6.1. yards), and at least began approaching the excellent performance turned in by Antwaan Randle-El and his compatriots in 2005 (10.2 yards per return).

In the overall scheme of things the Pittsburgh special teams showed marked improvement in 2008, at least compared with the 2007 season. However, as with most aspects of football, there is still tremendous opportunity for improvement.

Season in Review: The Coverage Units (2008)

Now we turn our attention to the an area of play about which we care inordinately ~ Special teams. In the first of two installments we examine the effectiveness of the kick and punt coverage units, both in relation to the league overall as well as within the historical context of previous editions of the Pittsburgh Steelers.

We will begin with the kick coverage unit; and bolstered by the play of rookie Patrick Bailey, free agent acquisition Keyaron Fox, Pro Bowl caliber Special Teamer Anthony Madison, and a host of others the Steelers had the best season in the past nine seasons, and 3.5 yards better than the 2007 season. Here are the Steelers' kick coverage numbers for 2000-2008:

2000	2001	2002	2003	2004
21.7	21.4	21.4	20.6	21.6

2005	2006	2007	2008
21.9	22.4	22.6	19.1

Whereas the Steelers' 2008 defense could not beat their 2001 predecessor in nearly any statistical category, this past season's kick coverage unit has set the standard for the decade with a dramatic, and rather unexpected improvement. With Keyaron Fox a free agent the question is whether or not Director of Football Operations Kevin Colbert has the wherewithal to re-sign an impactful but one-dimensional player.

Of course all of this talk is beside the point if, despite improvement, the Steelers have underperformed against the league. Here is a look at that:


So there it is ~ after eight years of relatively average performance the Steelers' kick coverage unit had a breakthrough season. So, what do they do for an encore?

As for punt coverage, the news good if not quite so spectacularly so. Here are the Steelers' numbers for the past nine seasons:

2000	2001	2002	2003	2004
8.4	11.9	11.6	6.4	7.4

2005	2006	2007	2008
9.1	5.8	8.6	6.2

The 2008 punt coverage unit had the third best season in the past nine; and last season was a significant improvement over the previous one. As for how the 2008 group compared to others in the NFL, here is that information:


The see-sawing from on season to the next continued in 2008; and the question now becomes whether the improvement of the past season will be in evidence in 2009. But you might wonder just how much better can the Steelers be in this area ~ after all they had the fourth best punt coverage in the league this past season. Well, Atlanta had the #1 punt coverage unit, which gave up an average of 2.5 yards per opposition punt return.

Clearly, there is still plenty of room for improvement.

Season in Review: Passing Yards Allowed (2008)

Going in, we thought this one was a slum dunk. After all, the Steelers had the NFL's #1 pass defense; but once again we were surprised, at least a little bit, by what we found inside the numbers. As it turns out the 2008 pass defense was not as good as 2007's. Here is a look at how Steelers' defenses have performed (i.e. how many yards they have given up) over the past nine seasons:

2000	2001	2002	2003	2004
3,019	2,942	3,460	3,042	2,835

2005	2006	2007	2008
3,168	3,393	2,824	2,861

Despite its #1 rating this past season the 2008 Steelers' pass defense was only second best amongst Steelers' defenses of the past nine seasons. However, on a more positive note the 2008 defense was the only defense in the league this past season to surrender fewer than 3,000 yards through the air. That is pretty amazing by itself, but what is even more shocking to us is that 2008 was the first time in the past nine seasons that only one team's defense surrendered fewer than 3,000 yards passing. Here is a graphical look at the trend league-wide over that period:


We are not sure what factors contributed to this low ~ changes in rules, improved passing attacks, declining defenses ~ but it certainly appears things are changing.

Finally, in the interest of completeness, here is a look at how the Steelers' pass defense has performed against the league average between 2000 and 2008 (inclusive):



While the rest of the league struggles the Pittsburgh defense continues to excel, which makes for a beautiful picture indeed!

Season in Review: Net Rushing Yardage (2008)

We continue our look at the 2008 regular season with an assessment of the performance by the Pittsburgh defense against the run. In the simplest terms it did very well ~ performing much better than the average of all NFL defenses ~ as has been the case for most of the past nine seasons, bu was not only second best amongst Steelers' defenses during the 2000-2008 period but was also second best in the NFL this past season.

The least surprising aspect of the Steelers' defensive performance is that they were vastly superior to the NFL average in net rushing yards. Here is our graphical look:


Even in their worst season (i.e. 2003) the Steelers' run defense has been significantly better than average.

Only marginally more surprising is that the 2001 Steelers' defense outperformed the 2008 group, and that the 2004 unit was nearly as good.

2000	2001	2002	2003	2004
1,693	1,195	1,375	1,741	1,299

2005	2006	2007	2008
1,376	1,412	1,438	1,284

The 154 yard improvement this past season compared to the 2007 season is certainly noteworthy, however the decline from 2000-to-2001 (498 yards) and 2003-to-2004 (442 yards) were far more significant.

Finally, the aspect of this that surprised us the most is that over the past three seasons the defense that has performed best against the run has been in . . . Minnesota?

In the 2005 season the Vikings surrendered 1,841 yards rushing. Then in the 2006 season a certain someone that all fans of the Steelers know took over as defensive coordinator, and net rushing yards allowed by the Vikings that season plummeted to 985 yards ~ the largest year-on-year decline by any team during the 2000-2008 time period. In the two seasons since that defensive coordinator made his way to Pittsburgh the Vikings have still been #1 against the rush but have not performed quite as well.

For fun, here is a comparison of the Steelers run defense versus the Steelers for the past three regular seasons:


Despite the fact that the Steelers' defense was worse against the run in 2007 than 2006 (something that we believe was directly related to the absence of Aaron Smith because of injury) the 2008 defense improved; and the job that the defensive coordinator did in Minnesota in 2006 gives us hope that more improvement lies ahead.

Season in Review: Yards allowed per catch (2008)

In our statistical analysis of the 2007 season we observed that the Steelers' defense had shown tremendous improvement in its pass defense, pointing out that the 4.9 yards they surrendered per pass last season was the second lowest such number given up by any time in the eight seasons we examined.

The 2008 Pittsburgh defense decided to do something truly special.

This past season the Steelers' defense surrendered an average of 4.3 yards ~ the lowest seasonal average of any team in the past nine NFL seasons. The next best average this season was Baltimore at 5.10 yards per pass; and the next best average during the past nine seasons was achieved by Tennessee (4.7 yards) during the 2000 season.

To put the achievement into its proper perspective, and because we love how easy it is to create graphs using modern software, here is a graphical look at both the NFL average and the Steelers' defense over the past nine seasons:



We have mentioned the 2001 Steelers' defense a number of times, and that one was superior in some ways to the 2008 defense. However it must be noted that only twice in the past nine seasons has the defense held opponents to less than five yards per pass, and that was the 2007 defense and the 2008 defense.

Season in Review: Sacks (2008)

Everyone knows that the Steelers' defense had a terrific season during 2008, but just how great a season it was becomes more and more clear as we dive into the numbers. Today it is the total number of sacks by the defense and the improvement, year-on-year, is stunning.

Overall the Steelers were #2 in sacks (Dallas led the league with 59), and just looking at the number of sacks by the defense, year-by-year, the nature of just how special this season's defensive effort was jumps out:


After a slight setback (i.e. the 2007 season) the pass rush continued what had been a steady climb into the upper echelon of the league's defenses.

As if that wasn't there is this ~ the number of sacks increased dramatically despite the fact that the total number of passing plays by opponents fell from the previous season (2007: 536 pass attempts by opponents, 2008: 533 pass attempts). As a result the ratio of sacks per pass attempts more than two percent:


What we see both in the raw numbers and the percentage of sacks to pass attempts is that the Steelers are bucking the trend within the NFL ~ while the league average for sacks and the percentage of sacks to pass attempts falls the Steelers are improving; and in 2008 they improved dramatically.

Having said all of that we just have to wonder if, as fans of the Pittsburgh Steelers, did we fully appreciate how great that 2001 defense was?

Season in Review: Points Allowed (2008)

We began our review of the 2008 season with a look at the points scored by the Steelers' offense (the short version: not many). We now shift our focus to the defense, and if any of you are surprised by what we found then you just were not paying attention this season.

The 2008 edition of the Steelers' defense grudgingly gave up 223 points ~ the second lowest total for a Pittsburgh defense in the past nine seasons (inclusive ~ the 2001 defense gave up 212 points, and that year the Steelers went 13-3), and the third lowest total by a Super Bowl champion during that same period (the 2000 Baltimore Ravens gave up 165 points, and the 2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers surrendered 196).

Interestingly the 2008 defense compares more favorably then the 2001 Steelers' defense when compared to the league average (i.e. the average points given up by defenses around the league). Here is a chart that highlights that fact:


The blue line represents the average NFL scoring defense for each season, the pink line represents the points allowed by the Steelers, and the yellow line represents the variance between the two. Since being just better than average in 2006 the scoring defense has improved in both of two most recent seasons. Indeed, it has improved to the point that the Steelers have now surrendered the fewest points over the past nine seasons. Here is a look at the top five scoring defenses, 2000-2008:

Team	Points Allowed
Pittsburgh	2,455
Baltimore	2,461
Tampa Bay	2,533
Philadelphia	2,546
New England	2,612

The only surprise here is how well Tampa Bay ranks, and it is testimony to how choosing a sample set can have a profound impact on the results. In three of the past five seasons the Bucs have surrendered 300 or more points (including 323 this past season), however in the four prior seasons (i.e. 2000-2003) they never surrendered more than 280 points in any one season. We do not want to say that anyone was living off their reputation but it seems clear that Tampa Bay's defense has seen better days.

As for the Steelers it is difficult to imagine that they could improve on their 2008 performance; however the 2001 group has set the bar (i.e. in terms of scoring defense) and until they surpass that group then improvement remains possible.

Season in Review: Passing Yards & the Mix

We have taken a look at rushing yards in 2008 (along with points scored and sacks allowed) and now it is time to examine the passing game; and what we found was that the total yardage gained by the Steelers' via the forward pass was far from being remarkable despite the drop in the running game.

As we have done in previous recaps we offer up the raw numbers for the seasons 2000-2008 (inclusive), and compare the production of the Steelers' passing game with the average of all the teams in the NFL:

	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005
Pittsburgh	2,543	3,113	3,832	3,304	2,720	2,926
NFL Avg.	3,309.19	3,292.9	3,395.66	3,207.13	3,368.66	3,255.25

	2006	2007	2008
Pittsburgh	3,733	3,071	3,301
NFL Avg.	3,277.00	3,248.81	3,380.53

So 2008 was only the fourth most prolific passing season in the last nine; and with the drop in rushing production this past season ~ to a point where the Steelers performed below the league average ~ as well as the drop in points scored by Pittsburgh, it will surely go down as one of the most mediocre offensive seasons on record (which makes the way the Steelers won Super Bowl XLIII all the more ironic).

To put an icing on this installment we offer a graphical look at rushing and passing production trends side-by-side, along with the NFL averages for both:



What we see quite clearly is that for the first time in the past nine seasons both the running and passing attacks performed below league average during the same season. All things considered the 2008 regular season was extremely tough for the Pittsburgh Steelers' offense.

Season in Review: Rushing Yards (2008)

One of our favorite articles from our friends at Football Outsiders states that a "good running game certainly contributes to the winning effort. But teams don't win because they run 30 times. Teams run the ball 30 times because they are protecting the lead on their way to a win."

The 2008 Pittsburgh Steelers are evidence of that.

For only the second time in the past nine seasons the Steelers' net rushing yardage for the season was below the league average; and the drop from last season was fairly precipitous. Here are what the numbers look like:

	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005
Pittsburgh	2,227	2,774	2,120	1,488	2,464	2,223
NFL Avg.	1801.71	1,788.39	1,858.09	1,885.66	1,865.91	1,799.47
	2006	2007	2008
Pittsburgh	1,992	2,168	1,689
NFL Avg.	1,876.97	1,774.69	1,855.47

For you visual learners out there, here is a graphical representation:


Some will argue that the injury to Willie Parker, and perhaps Rashard Mendenhall as well (certainly hopes were high for him during the preseason), negatively impacted the Steelers' ability to move the ball on the ground. However in the five games that Mr. Parker was inactive, Mewelde Moore rushed for a total of 373 yards on 88 carries (including a 13 yards on 8 carries effort versus Baltimore on 9/29/08) ~ a per rush average of 4.24 yards. This compares to Mr. Parker's 791 rushing yards on the season, on 210 carries ~ a 3.8 per rush average.

The depths to which the rushing attack has sunk is driven home when one realizes that, as a team, the yards gained per rush fell to 3.7 yards this season ~ only the second time it has been below 4.0 yards in the past nine seasons. This despite the fact that the Steelers rushed the ball only 460 times ~ the second lowest total in the past nine seasons. Here is how the number of rushing plays over the past nine seasons looks graphically:


Typically, we would expect an average to increase when the number of running plays decreases; so the question we have to ask is whether the Steelers have reduced the number of running plays they call because they do not run the ball well, or do they not run well because they do not call as many running plays?

Season in Review: Sacks Allowed (2008)

When does a team give up 49 sacks of their quarterbacks and call it an improvement? When they are the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Proving that the old saw that there are "lies, damned lies, and then there are statistics" is more true than nearly anyone realizes, the Steelers saw their raw number of sacks return to a high-water mark while the ratio between sacks and pass attempts improved.

Here is a look at the raw number of sacks over the last nine seasons (inclusive) versus the league average:

	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008
Pittsburgh	43	31	34	42	36	32	49	47	49
League Avg.	39.87	38.61	36.72	34.13	37.38	36.94	36.34	34.44	32.38

Prior to the 2006 season the Steelers had surrendered 40 or more sacks in two seasons, both of which were utterly forgettable (in 2000 the Steelers had a record of 9-7, missing the playoffs, and in 2003 they were 6-10). Now they have done so in three consecutive seasons, have made the playoffs in the two most recent seasons, and have won a Super Bowl ~ clearly the team is evolving.

It is worth noting that the 49 sacks surrendered by the Steelers this season is the most given up in a season by the team that eventually won the Super Bowl. In fact only three Super Bowl champions have given up 40 or more sacks in their championship season (43 by Baltimore in 2000, 46 by New England in 2001, and 41 by Tampa Bay in 2002). During the 2005 season the Steelers gave up just 32 sacks.

So, you must be wondering, where is the good news? That comes when examining the total number of pass attempts this season by the Steelers versus the league average. Here is a look at the past nine seasons (2000-2008, inclusive):

	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008
PIT	440	454	551	532	358	379	523	442	506
League	526.58	521.97	540.38	515.41	511.06	514.50	512.16	532.66	516.44

After a big drop in the 2007 season pass attempts returned to a level reminiscent of Ken Whisenhunt's final season in Pittsburgh, with this season's pass attempts increasing by 12.65% over the previous season.

With all of that in mind, here is how it all looks graphically:


In this representation it is easy to see that the general trend league-wide over this period has been downward (i.e. the ratio of sacks to pass attempts has been falling). Meanwhile in Pittsburgh 2008 was the fifth season out of the last nine in which Steelers quarterbacks were sacked 9.00%, or more, of the time they dropped back to pass.

We suppose there is some comfort in knowing that the problem is not a new one; and that there was some slight improvement this past season. However, everyone involved (i.e. the quarterbacks, the wide receivers, the offensive line, the offensive line coach, and the offensive coordinator) all need to develop a plan for improving in this area.

Season in Review: Points Scored (2008)

With the season over, and the draft still more than two months away, we like to use this time to look back at the recently completed season. Specifically, we offer up a statistical look at how the Steelers performed in a raft of categories compared with the rest of the league. Over the next week or so we will post a chart and brief analysis of just how the Steelers really did.

We begin with points scored, and the news is not good. For only the third time in the past nine seasons the Steelers scored fewer points (347) than the NFL average (352.47) and 46 fewer points than during the 2007 season.

The biggest difference between this season and those other two (i.e. 2000 and 2003) is that this season the Steelers made the playoffs. Indeed the 2008 season was their best by far of those in which they scored beneath the league average (in 2000 they were 9-7, and in 2003 they were 6-10). Moreover the 2008 Steelers have the third lowest points scored total of Super Bowl champions during the last nine years (inclusive). Only the 2000 Baltimore Ravens (333 points) and the 2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (346 points) scored fewer.

Stay tuned throughout the next couple of weeks as we take an in-depth look at the offense and defense of the 2008 champions of the National Football League!