First Down, the Most Important of All?

Perhaps it was because we were at the game, but last Sunday we walked away from Heinz Field with the distinct impression that the Steelers' offense was particularly ineffectual on first down ~ i.e. they were constantly faced with second- and third-and-long situations. So we decided to take a look at first down performance last Sunday and compare it with the other games the Steelers have played this season.

A brief disucssion regarding our methodology seems appropriate:

• We used the official NFL Gamebooks for our information on plays run by the Steelers on first downs this season.


• The great folks at Football Outsiders assess the success of a play based upon how much yardage was picked-up relative to the yardage to go for a first down or touchdown. We like that metric, but instead of a percentage we wanted to see the average distance remaining. So, by that standard, a play on 1-10 that gained 32 yards is a -22 (meaning that negatives are good). An average at or below zero is desirable (i.e. no yards remaining for a first down), and a first down play that gains three yards from the opponent's three yard line (i.e. scores a touchdown) does not negatively impact the average.


• Finally, we noted whether a play was a running play or passing play.

Here's what the first down numbers look like:

Opponent	W or L	# of Runs	# of Passes	Average Gain
Houston	W	20	4	4.04
Cleveland	W	17	5	5.73
Philadelphia	L	6	18	3.64
Baltimore	W	16	6	2.50
Jacksonville	W	14	16	8.40
Cincinnati	W	12	13	4.52
N.Y. Giants	L	9	12	5.10
Washington	W	16	7	4.22
Indianapolis	L	15	12	2.85

We're not exactly certain what this tells us ~ certainly our perception that first downs versus the Colts were not productive is born out by the numbers; and would any one have expected the Colts' defense to have performed as capably as Baltimore's (we were amazed by the performance versus Jacksonville. On that night the Steelers' offense had 12 first down plays of 10 yards or more, including a 48-yard touchdown pass)?

Having said that we get the general sense that running more leads to better results, but the Steelers have won games in which they passed more than the ran, and lost games in which they ran more than they passed so if there is any correlation it is a weak one.

We heard a comment recently that third down was the most important down in football ~ we will check that and let you know what we find out.

So, just how are the Steelers doing --The Defense

As promised in our similar assessment of the offense, we now offer a look the Pittsburgh Steelers' 2008 defense in the historical context of the past nine seasons. However before getting started we feel compelled to offer this warning: these numbers may be an illusion.

Opponent's total points scored, per game average
Here, ranked in order from lowest to highest, are the average total points scored per game by Steelers' opponents:

1. 13.25 (2001)


2. 14.83 (2008)


3. 15.69 (2004)


4. 15.94 (2000)


5. 16.13 (2005)


6. 16.81 (2007)


7. 19.69 (2006)


8. 20.44 (2003)


9. 21.56 (2002)

To say that the defense has performed well so far (13.5% below the nine season average of 17.15) this season is an understatement. If this unit continues to deliver results like these for the remainder of the season they will be making history.

Opponent's first quarter points scored, per game average

1. 2.06 (2001)


2. 2.83 (2008)


3. 3.06 (2006)


4. 3.81 (2003)


5. 4.19 (2000)


6. 4.19 (2007)


7. 4.88 (2005)


8. 4.94 (2002)


9. 4.94 (2004)

More excellent results ~ shutting down opponents early and often, and more than a full point below the nine year average of 3.88.

Opponent's second quarter points scored, per game average

1. 2.63 (2004)


2. 3.06 (2005)


3. 4.56 (2002)


4. 4.75 (2000)


5. 4.88 (2007)


6. 5.00 (2008)


7. 5.06 (2001)


8. 6.13 (2003)


9. 6.13 (2006)

The defense proves it is human.

Opponent's third quarter points scored, per game average

1. 0.81 (2001)


2. 1.00 (2008)


3. 3.13 (2000)


4. 3.38 (2005)


5. 4.06 (2006)


6. 4.13 (2004)


7. 4.38 (2007)


8. 4.44 (2003)


9. 5.38 (2002)

The nine year average for this quarter is 3.41, meaning that this year's defense is more than 70% to the good, and within hailing distance of the 2001 unit's record.

Opponent's fourth quarter points scored, per game average

1. 3.19 (2007)


2. 3.69 (2000)


3. 4.00 (2004)


4. 4.25 (2005)


5. 5.13 (2001)


6. 5.88 (2003)


7. 6.00 (2008)


8. 6.25 (2006)


9. 6.69 (2002)

The curse of the prevent defense?

Opponent's total first downs, per game average

1. 15.50 (2004)


2. 15.56 (2007)


3. 15.75 (2000)


4. 15.88 (2001)


5. 16.50 (2008)


6. 16.81 (2006)


7. 16.88 (2003)


8. 17.19 (2005)


9. 17.44 (2002)

Given the excellent results in scoring defense it seems a small point to quibble about, but ~ and this is something we have noticed in games ~ the 2008 defense seems absolutely intent (like most defensive units) to do all it can to keep from giving up big plays (think last season's New England game). So if teams pick up first downs on along the way so be it, even if it means the 2008 unit is performing below the nine season average in this category (16.39).

Opponent's rushing first downs, per game average

1. 4.00 (2008)


2. 4.38 (2001)


3. 4.50 (2006)


4. 4.63 (2007)


5. 4.69 (2005)


6. 4.81 (2002)


7. 4.94 (2004)


8. 5.13 (2000)


9. 5.56 (2003)

With Casey Hampton having eaten is way onto the PUP list and beyond it amazes us that the defense continues to perform as well as it is; and it also reinforces what we said last season ~ the Steelers are a different team with Aaron Smith in the lineup.

Opponent's passing first downs, per game average

1. 9.13 (2004)


2. 9.56 (2000)


3. 9.69 (2003)


4. 9.88 (2007)


5. 10.00 (2001)


6. 11.00 (2006)


7. 11.13 (2002)


8. 11.17 (2008)


9. 11.19 (2005)

For all the good work in controlling ground attacks the soft underbelly of the defense continues to be the secondary.

Opponent's first downs by penalty, per game average

1. 1.06 (2000)


2. 1.06 (2007)


3. 1.31 (2005)


4. 1.31 (2006)


5. 1.33 (2008)


6. 1.44 (2004)


7. 1.50 (2001)


8. 1.50 (2002)


9. 1.63 (2003)

That 2003 team (i.e. offense and defense) looks worse with every passing statistic.

Next we look at play propensity ~ i.e. the mix of run-to-pass:

Opponent's pass attempts, per game average

1. 30.25 (2003)


2. 30.25 (2004)


3. 32.50 (2000)


4. 32.81 (2001)


5. 33.06 (2006)


6. 33.50 (2007)


7. 34.17 (2008)


8. 34.31 (2005)


9. 35.81

The concern over the number of first downs given up via the pass is muted somewhat by the number of passes the Steelers' stout run defense is forcing.

Opponent's rushing attempts, per game average

1. 21.19 (2001)


2. 22.31 (2004)


3. 22.44 (2002)


4. 22.56 (2007)


5. 23.67 (2008)


6. 25.13 (2005)


7. 25.50 (2006)


8. 26.63 (2000)


9. 28.06 (2003)

Slightly below the nine year average (24.16).

Opponent's net passing yards, per game average

1. 158.67 (2008)


2. 176.50 (2007)


3. 177.19 (2004)


4. 183.88 (2001)


5. 188.69 (2000)


6. 190.13 (2003)


7. 198.00 (2005)


8. 212.06 (2006)


9. 216.25 (2002)

This is incredible ~ the second highest average of pass attempts per game in the past nine seasons is yielding, on average, the lowest number of yards? However, though we want to be really excited about this, this statistic is what got us thinking beyond just the numbers. The Steelers have faced two young quarterbacks (i.e. Joe Flacco and Ryan Fitzpatrick), and we're beginning to wonder just how much this has effected the numbers.

Opponent's net rushing yards, per game average

1. 69.67 (2008)


2. 74.69 (2001)


3. 81.19 (2004)


4. 85.91 (2002)


5. 86.00 (2005)


6. 88.25 (2006)


7. 89.88 (2007)


8. 105.81 (2000)


9. 108.81 (2003)

Whatever the reason, this season's number is eye-popping! The 2008 average is nearly 20 yards below the nine year average (87.80).

So there is plenty to feel good about, right? Something worth keeping in mind is that, overall, the quality of the offenses the Steelers have faced so far has not been the greatest. For example, in terms of average points per game, here are where the six teams the Steelers have faced so far this season are ranked in the NFL:

• Philadelphia, 4th


• Houston, 14th


• Jacksonville, 22nd


• Baltimore, 26th


• Cleveland, 30th


• Cincinnati, 31st

By way of comparison here are how the Steelers' next four opponents stackup in the same category:

• New York, 2nd


• Washington, 23rd


• Indianapolis, 20th


• San Diego, 6th

Tougher to be sure, and how long will the Colts continue to struggle? For Steelers fans we can only hope that they do not get back on track until some time after Thanksgiving.

The takeaway from all of this is that, for all the great work the defense has done so far, bigger challenges lay ahead.

So, just how are the Steelers doing?

With the Steelers sporting a 5-1 record fans of the Black & Gold have every reason to feel good. Of course the toughest part of the Steelers' schedule is still in front of them, so we wanted to get a sense of just how well the team is performing.

So, in the same vein as our 2000-2007 statistical review, we try to bring some historical context ~ beginning with the offense ~ to this season's performance. Specifically, we are going to look at key offensive statistical categories for the 2000-2007 seasons (inclusive) and compare this season's numbers for the first six games to those.

Total points scored, per game average
Here, ranked in order from highest to lowest, are the average total points per game:

1. 24.56 (2007)


2. 24.38 (2002)


3. 24.31 (2005)


4. 23.50 (2008)


5. 23.25 (2004)


6. 22.06 (2006)


7. 22.00 (2001)


8. 20.06 (2000)


9. 18.75 (2003)

So far this season the offense is well above average (22.54) in scoring; but what we find more interesting is that the two season's in which the Steelers had their best won-loss records (2001: 13-3, 2004: 15-1) were far from the highest scoring seasons.

First quarter points scored, per game average
In our recent assessment of the game versus the Bengals we bemoaned the fact that the offense seemingly took a break during the middle two quarters of the game. So we decided to break down the offensive scoring by quarter. Here, ranked in order from highest to lowest, are the average number of points scored in the first quarter:

1. 7.69 (2004)


2. 7.06 (2002)


3. 6.19 (2005)


4. 5.00 (2008)


5. 4.69 (2007)


6. 4.13 (2006)


7. 3.75 (2001)


8. 3.63 (2000)


9. 3.13 (2003)

Once again the 2008 season is compares favorably to seasons that have come before, and is right at the average (5.03) for this nine season period.

Second quarter points scored, per game average

1. 8.06 (2007)


2. 7.75 (2002)


3. 7.56 (2005)


4. 6.75 (2001)


5. 6.69 (2006)


6. 6.19 (2000)


7. 6.17 (2008)


8. 5.88 (2003)


9. 5.63 (2004)

Over the course of the last nine seasons the second quarter has been the Steelers' highest scoring period, on average, of the game. So far this season the offense is performing nearly 10% below the nine year average for second quarter scoring (6.74), and is at its lowest level since 2004 ~ the season the Steelers were 15-1.

Third quarter points scored, per game average

1. 6.44 (2005)


2. 6.38 (2001)


3. 6.33 (2008)


4. 5.81 (2003)


5. 4.25 (2007)


6. 4.19 (2000)


7. 3.81 (2002)


8. 3.63 (2006)


9. 2.94 (2004)

It is beginning to appear that there is no relationship between when the Steelers score and how many games they win. The previously mentioned season of 2004 saw the Steelers produce their worst third quarter scoring total (on average). Meanwhile in 2008 the third quarter has, so far, been #1 for scoring, and well above the nine year average (4.86).

Fourth quarter points scored, per game average

1. 7.56 (2007)


2. 7.25 (2006)


3. 7.00 (2004)


4. 6.06 (2000)


5. 5.56 (2002)


6. 5.50 (2008)


7. 4.94 (2001)


8. 4.13 (2005)


9. 3.94 (2003)

Our criticism of the offense's performance against Cincinnati not withstanding, it appears that, on average, the middle two quarters are their best. Was the Bengals game an anomaly? Only time will tell.

Another assumption we have been making, though not necessarily explicitly stated, is that the Steelers' offense is becoming more of a big play offense rather than one built on ball control. In an effort to determine the validity of that assumption we take a look at the average number of first downs per game, and then just for fun we also looked at rushing first downs and passing first downs, on a per game average over the last nine seasons.

Total first downs, per game average

1. 21.44 (2002)


2. 20.44 (2006)


3. 19.63 (2001)


4. 19.31 (2004)


5. 18.63 (2007)


6. 18.56 (2005)


7. 18.00 (2008)


8. 17.69 (2000)


9. 17.19 (2003)

Superficially at least it appears that our assumption is correct ~ the team is still scoring at or near historical averages, but the number of first downs this season is down significantly. It is also worth keeping in mind that the 2000 edition of the Steelers had a 9-7 record while the team went 6-10 in 2003.

Rushing first downs, per game average

1. 9.25 (2001)


2. 8.38 (2004)


3. 7.69 (2000)


4. 7.50 (2005)


5. 7.44 (2002)


6. 6.75 (2007)


7. 5.50 (2008)


8. 4.81 (2003)

This season's total is the lowest for any Steelers' offense with a winning record in the last nine seasons. The loss of Willie Parker certainly is has to be considered a huge part of this; especially when considering that against Cincinnati (with Mewelde Moore stepping up his performance) the Steelers had nine rushing first downs.

Passing first downs, per game average

1. 12.56 (2006)


2. 12.50 (2002)


3. 11.19 (2007)


4. 10.88 (2003)


5. 10.33 (2008)


6. 9.38 (2001)


7. 9.19 (2004)


8. 9.00 (2005)


9. 8.06 (2000)

More evidence of the big play nature of the 2008 offense is found here ~ with the precipitous drop in rushing first downs one might have expected to see a rise in the number of passing first downs. Instead this season's offense falls in at the middle of the pack, right at the nine year average (10.34).

First downs by penalty, per game average

1. 2.17 (2008)


2. 2.06 (2005)


3. 1.94 (2000)


4. 1.75 (2004)


5. 1.63 (2006)


6. 1.50 (2002)


7. 1.50 (2003)


8. 1.00 (2001)


9. 0.69 (2007)

Finally, this season's offense leads in something!

Next we look at play propensity ~ i.e. the mix of run-to-pass:

Pass attempts, per game average

1. 34.44 (2002)


2. 33.25 (2003)


3. 32.69 (2006)


4. 28.38 (2001)


5. 27.67 (2008)


6. 27.63 (2007)


7. 27.50 (2000)


8. 23.69 (2005)


9. 22.38 (2004)

We were amazed at the consistency of Bruce Arians' two seasons ~ to be within .04 pass attempts over the course of twenty-two regular season games is striking.

Rushing attempts, per game average

1. 38.63 (2004)


2. 36.25 (2001)


3. 34.31 (2005)


4. 32.88 (2000)


5. 32.00 (2002)


6. 31.94 (2007)


7. 29.31 (2006)


8. 28.33 (2008)


9. 27.88 (2003)

Is it any coincidence that the three most successful seasons of the last nine are also the three seasons in which the Steelers' offense ran the ball most often? We think not; and while the loss of Willie Parker certainly altered the play calling this season (and last season), we are concerned that the number of rushing attempts this season is closer to the bottom than the top.

Having begun are analysis with points scored, we end with another type of "deliverable" ~ yards gained.

Net passing yards, per game average

1. 239.50 (2002)


2. 233.31 (2006)


3. 206.50 (2003)


4. 194.56 (2001)


5. 191.94 (2007)


6. 189.50 (2008)


7. 182.88 (2005)


8. 170.00 (2004)


9. 158.94 (2000)

For the most part these numbers are directly related to the number of pass attempts.

Net rushing yards, per game average

1. 173.38 (2001)


2. 154.00 (2004)


3. 139.19 (2000)


4. 138.94 (2005)


5. 135.50 (2007)


6. 132.50 (2002)


7. 124.50 (2006)


8. 109.17 (2008)


9. 93.00 (2003)

The loss of Willie Parker explains a great deal when it comes to the running game, however this season's performance is more than 18% below the historical average (133.35) ~ did we really appreciate averaging 173 yards rushing back in 2001? ~ and is, arguably, more of a reflection of the play of the offensive line. We believe Darnell Stapleton may be a difference maker for that group, so there is hope for the remainder of the season.

So what does it all mean?

Being fans of the Steelers we, naturally, believe that the numbers do not portend good things for the remainder of the season. The offense is relying on big plays, and help from the officials, to a degree not seen before ~ at least during winning seasons. With the Giants, Redskins, Patriots, Ravens, and Cowboys on the schedule it is reasonable to assume that the proficiency of the defenses the Steelers will face is bound to rise, and only a corresponding increase in offensive proficiency will result in success.