Tuesday, May 13, 2008

Recycled Fanatic:
Season in Review: Rushing Yards

Our friends at Football Outsiders have argued that teams do not win games because they run, but run because they are winning. It's an interesting argument, one that deserves some consideration. However there is no denying that the Steelers' identity is wrapped up in its ability to run the football. Given that there is a general perception that the Steelers' offensive line had a sub-par season in 2007 (a perception that Pittsburgh Steelers Fanatic shares), it's useful to look at the rushing yards accumulated by the team this season, and compare it to both the team's own performance over the last eight seasons, and the league average over that same period.

First, here's how the numbers look for the Steelers' ground attack from 2000-2007 (inclusive):

Season20002001200220032004200520062007
Net Rushing Yards2,2272,7742,1201,4882,4642,2231,9922,168


Looking at the ups-and-downs of the rushing performance over the course of a number of years seemingly supports the view that teams that are winning rush, versus rushing teams winning. The 2000, 2003, and 2006 seasons were less than stellar for the Steelers -- i.e. they played from behind in more than a few games -- and the running game had to be set aside. The one exception is 2004, which was Ben Roethlisberger's rookie season (as all of you no doubt recall Mr. Roethlisberger was pressed into duty after Tommy Maddox was injured at the beginning of the season). In that year the Steelers ran the ball in order to limit their young QBs exposure (the number of rushing plays that season -- 618 -- was the highest of any season in the last eight).

But of course the purpose of our post is to compare the 2007 season to others that preceded it, and while this season's rushing total represents an increase of nearly ten percent over last season (though it must be pointed out that the number of carries increased by a nearly identical percentage, and the average gain per carry -- 4.2 -- is identical to last season) it is the second lowest rushing total in a winning season during this eight year period (Note: In our humble opinions a .500 record is not a winning one, so the 1,992 rushing yards in 2006 are judged to have been gained in a losing season).

As for how the Steelers compare to the competition, here's a look (click on the picture for a larger image):


As expected, the Steelers are an above average rushing team, though just barely in 2006 and the general trend is toward a more average rushing attack. The 2007 season represents a slight upward tick, but just marginally. The question to be pondered is this: Given the investment that the team has made in its quarterback and wide receivers (i.e. Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes) is the team moving towards a spread style of offense? And if so, what will the effect be on the types of offensive linemen who are brought onto the team?

All coaches talk about wanting to play physical football, and emphasize the need to run effectively. However, as Mike Tomlin showed when he arrived as head coach, and kept Dick LeBeau and the 3-4 defense (rather than installing his Cover Two), the talent sometimes dictates the system. Given that the offensive talent is in the skill positions it could be that the Steelers' offense may be undergoing a transformation, meaning that 2008 will be an important and interesting season.

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Wednesday, May 07, 2008

Keeping the Internet Green:
Pittsburgh Steelers Fanatic Recycles

NOTE: In the interest of killing time until there is new football action over which to wring our hands, we've decided to re-publish our season-ending series of statistical snapshots of the Steelers' 2007 season.

As if watching the Steelers go down to defeat on Saturday wasn't difficult enough, in-and-of itself, there is the issue of creating informative, compelling material for you our reader (not a typo -- you, singular, our reader).

So we've decided to take a few days (or weeks, if we can stretch it out that long) to look at the 2007 performance of the Pittsburgh Steelers in a few statistical categories, relative to the other teams in the league. And to spice it up a little bit we've decided to actually go back a ways and take a look at how "things" are trending over the last eight NFL seasons (i.e. 2000-2008 inclusive). We begin with points scored. Here are the total points that the Steelers have scored during each season in that period:

Season 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Points 321 352 390 300 372 389 353 393

It is good to see that, despite the slippage in 2006, the generally trend is a positive one. However, as always, we ask the question what do these numbers mean? To provide some context we have calculated the league average over the same period and provide a graph to illustrate just how the Steelers compare to the other teams in the league (click on the picture to get a larger view):


It appears that while the Steelers are obviously scoring above the league averages they are not immune from fluctuations in scoring from season-to-season. Additionally, while the Steelers have exceeded the league average in all but two seasons, they are one of nine teams not to have scored at least 400 points in at least one of the eight seasons at which we are looking (the other teams are Baltimore, Buffalo, Carolina, Detroit, Houston -- they came into the league in 2002, and are not included in the seasonal averages prior to that season -- Miami, New York Jets, Tampa Bay, and Washington. Something that strikes us about this list is that at least three of the teams -- Baltimore, Tampa Bay, and Washington -- have had head coaches during that period who were known for their offensive prowess).

One final note, the 2000 season featured Kordell Stewart at starting quarterback (11 TDs, 8 INTs), and saw Kent Graham get some playing time as well (1 TD, 1 INT). Meanwhile, the 2003 season featured Tommy Maddox as the starting quarterback (18 TDs/17 INTs) and went 6-10 on the season, and at one point lost five consecutive games.

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Friday, January 25, 2008

Season in Review: Fourth Down

We've looked at down one through three, and instead of checking out how the Steelers did on offensive plays run on fourth downs during the 2000 to 2008 seasons (they have had 121 such plays in eight seasons) we've opted to take a look at punting performance over the course of those seasons.

In the interest of full disclosure we looked at some of this information in our posting regarding special teams coach Bob Ligashesky, but we've added a bit of information here and filled things out just a bit. So, here's a look at the numbers:

SeasonPunter(s)Avg. Gross Yds. per KickAvg. Net Yds. per KickInside the 20
2000J. Miller43.837.534
2001J. Miller &
K. Brown
41.434.623
2002J. Miller &
T. Rouen
4133.215
2003J. Miller41.93627
2004C. Gardocki4337.424
2005C. Gardocki &
B. Roethlisberger
41.734.523
2006C. Gardocki41.336.711
2007D. Sepulveda42.437.928


In 2006 we were very vocal in our criticism of Chris Gardocki, and while we stand by that criticism the numbers -- in a historical context -- do not support us.

We can live that.

What we cannot understand, based upon the numbers, is why Bill Cowher was always so angry at Josh Miller! After an amazing first season Mr. Miller fell off somewhat, and suffered injuries as well (Kris brown punting? We vaguely remember that), and that bounced back in his final season in Pittsburgh.

Meanwhile, Chris Gardocki had a solid first season, and lousy second season, and then a bit of a comeback in season three. Of course the problem with Mr. Gardocki's kicks was that they were always low, line-drives thereby making the job of the coverage until that much more difficult.

Now we have Daniel Sepulveda. Like his two predecessors he had a very good first season -- his gross average was the third highest in the last eight seasons, his net average was the best of any Steelers punter during that period, and his kicks inside the twenty yard line was second best -- but of course the question is will he (like those predecessors) see a decline in his performance next season?

Just one of many questions to be answered beginning next September.

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Thursday, January 24, 2008

Season in Review: Third Down

In our reviews of first down plays and second down plays we've seen that while the mix of running plays v. passing plays has largely remained the same, the effectiveness of those plays (i.e. the average yardage gained per play) has steadily declined in recent seasons.

Now we turn our attention to third down plays, during the seasons 2000-2007, to determine whether the decline in yardage gained on first and second downs exhibited itself in play calling on third down, and whether or not the Steelers faced more third-and-long (i.e. 6 or more yards to go for a first down or a touchdown). As we've done with the downs one and two, here is a breakdown onn the numbers of running plays and passing plays called on third downs over the course of the last eight seasons:

20002001200220032004200520062007
Rushing Plays5673604864663649
Passing Plays174162163179155126181172
Total Plays230235223227219192217221

There's nothing especially revealing about these numbers. In 2007 the Steelers had the fourth lowest total number of third down plays, the third lowest number of rushing plays, and the fourth lowest/highest number of passing plays. Additionally, for what it's worth, the number of running plays in 2007 was distinctly below average (56.5) while the number of passing plays was distinctly above average (164).

But of course our reason for continuing on with this analysis is to examine whether or not the Steelers faced significantly more third-and-long situations in 2007 than in seasons past. Here's a graphical look at that:


So there were more third-and-long situations in 2007 than in 2006, but only five more; however the real difference occurred from 2005 to 2006 -- while 2007 represented a continuation of that disturbing trend.

Finally, in the interest of thoroughness, we offer a look at the average yards gained per play on third down:


Once again we see a very interesting trend in which yardage for rushing and passing plays consistently move in the same direction, indicating that the effectiveness of rushing and passing enjoys a much more symbiotic relationship than we would have previously believed.

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Wednesday, January 23, 2008

Season in Review: Second Down

In our look at first down play calling and its effectiveness we noticed that while the mix of pass-to-run was similar over the last eight seasons, we saw a decline in yards gained on first down in 2007. As a result we surmised that second down play calling would be effected. Here's a look at those numbers:


20002001200220032004200520062007
Rushing Plays196182155151230178160174
Passing Plays144173209186112150177165
Total Off. Plays, First Down340355364337342328337339

The past season featured the fourth highest, and fourth lowest, percentage of running plays v. passing plays (51.33% v. 48.67%) over the last eight seasons. To say that 2007 was "average" is something of an understatement: From 2000-2007, on second down, the Steelers have averaged 178.25 rushing plays and 164.5 passing plays.

But the question we were really wondering about, based upon the first down yards gained in 2007, is whether or not the Steelers had more second-and-long situations that in seasons past. So we looked at how many second down plays the Steelers had on which they needed 5 or fewer yards, how many plays they had on which they needed between 6 and 10 yards, and how many plays on which they needed more than 10 yards. Here's a graphical look at the data:


As expected the 6-10 yard plays is overwhelmingly the #1 category in terms of total second down plays, and for only the second time in the last eight seasons the Steelers had more than 200 plays in that category. Also on the positive side, 2007 featured the fewest number of second-and-really long plays (44).

However, and this was to be expected, this past season also featured the fewest number of second-and-short -- i.e. five yards or fewer -- plays (88) of any season in the last eight. And while 2007 was the worst season in this regard, it was a continuation of a four year slide in the number of plays in which the Steelers offense had five or fewer yards to gain for a first down or touchdown.

Finally, as we move forward it is worthwhile to look at the average yardage gained on second down. Once again, here's a graphical look at the trends over the past eight seasons:


When we examined the Steelers' passing attack we saw that the effectiveness of the running and passing attacks have tended to expand and contract in the same direction, and we see something similar on second down. The average gain by running on second down has declined the past two seasons, and the same has occurred in the passing game as well.

We're beginning to see a trend here, and can only imagine what third down is going to look like.

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Tuesday, January 22, 2008

Season in Review: First Down

We are going to continue our look at the 2007 season, and the seven seasons that came before it, by hopping back over to the offensive side of the football. Specifically we want to look at what, if anything, changed in Bruce Arians' first season as offensive coordinator. After all much was made of how Ben Roethlisberger's input was incorporated into the offensive playbook, so what imapact did it have? Here's a look at a breakdown on play calling (i.e. run v. pass) on first down over the last eight seasons:

20002001200220032004200520062007
Rushing Plays247295273235292286252256
Passing Plays182167214199147142214168
Total Off. Plays, First Down429462487434439428466427

So many numbers . . . what stands out to us is that the 2007 season featured the fewest number of first down offensive plays in any of the last eight seasons, despite having the fourth highest number of first downs (298 -- that information is not included here, just take our word for it!) in the last eight seasons.

What also is noteworthy is that, despite the changes in offensive coordinator over the years (granted, for the time period we're looking at Kevin Gilbride was the coordinator for the 2000 season, Ken Whisenhunt was the coordinator from 2001-2006, and the Bruce Arians era began in 2007), and a change at the head coach position the mix of run-to-pass in quite similar. Here's a look at the percentage of run-to-pass, on first down, over the last eight seasons:

20002001200220032004200520062007
Rushing Plays57.5863.8556.0654.1566.5166.8254.0860.66
Passing Plays42.4236.1543.9445.8533.4933.1845.9239.34

The final question we have is whether or not there are any differences, qualitatively, in the plays. In other words, how much yardage was gained, on average, by these running and passing plays. For that we offer this graph:


As the graph shows, other than 2001, the rushing yardage on first down has been fairly consistent (though the 2007 was the first decline after four consecutive seasons of improvement), and it is the passing yardage that has shown the most change; indeed the average yardage gained on first down passes has steadily declined over the last four seasons.

For all the talk at the beginning of the season about change, it seems that the Steelers' offense is still very much a run first attack. However, the downward trends in average yardage gained on first down -- in both rushing and passing -- is (no doubt) making things tougher on second and third down.

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Saturday, January 19, 2008

Season in Review:
Sacks & Yards Allowed per Catch

In a recent posting we wondered whether or not the rather precipitous drop in sacks (from 2006 to 2007) by the Steelers' defense might be connected to a change in offensive scheming. Specifically we wondered whether offenses were going to a short(er) passing game to offset the Steelers' ferocious pass rush. As in most things, the results of our query were interesting if not conclusive.

First, here are the raw numbers -- the average yardage allowed per pass attempt by the Steelers' defense versus the median for all NFL defenses:

20002001200220032004200520062007
Steelers5.405.105.605.905.405.306.004.90
NFL Median5.905.905.905.806.105.806.006.10

That the Steelers are doing better than most is underscored by this fact: the Steelers 4.90 yards allowed per catch in 2007 is the second lowest figure in the last eight years (Tennessee gave up 4.7 yards per catch in 2000, and three other teams have given up 4.9 yards per catch over the course of a season -- Baltimore 2003, New England 2003, and Chicago 2005).

But of course the question is whether or not there is a relationship between sacks and average yards per catch. For that we'll turn to a couple of graphical representations. First, here is a look at average yards per catch allowed by the Steelers:


And now, here's a graphical look at sacks:


Other than the 2006 season there's seems to be a positive relationship between these two variables. It must be pointed out however that using the miracle that is Microsoft Excel to calculate a correlation coefficient results in a weak (nearly non-existent), positive relationship (.00525).

So while it's hardly conclusive that drop in sacks this past season was the result of shorter passes by opponents, it's something approximating an explanation; and for us that's good enough.

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Friday, January 18, 2008

Season in Review: Sacks by the Defense

For years the Steelers have been known for their aggressive, pressuring defenses. In fact, one word captures the essence of the franchise for both Steelers fans, and those that root against them.

Blitzburgh.

So, as we did with the Pittsburgh offense, we decided to look at how many sacks the Steelers defense has forced -- both as a raw number, and as a percentage of the total number of pass attempts by opponent's offenses. After all, it would stand to reason that the more that a team plays with the lead the more often their opponents would be forced to throw, and -- possibly -- the higher the number of sacks.

Let's see what happens when that kind of logic meets reality -- here's the sack totals for the Steelers for the seasons 2000-2007, and the average for all NFL teams during those same seasons:

20002001200220032004200520062007
Steelers3955503541474936
NFL Avg.39.8738.6136.7234.1337.3836.9436.6634.33

Well, for the Steelers 2007 represented the second worst season for sacks by the defense in the last eight, and a significant decline after three consecutive seasons of improving numbers. However, before becoming too alarmed let's look at the number of pass attempts by Steelers opponents during the same period:

20002001200220032004200520062007
520525573484484549529536

The first thing that jumps out here are the 2003 and 2004 seasons. In 2003 the Steelers were 6-10 (i.e. they didn't play with the lead too often) but faced the exact same number of pass attempts as the 15-1 Steelers did in 2004! So much for what passes for "logic" at Pittsburgh Steelers Fanatic.

What also stands out, in a negative kind of way, is the fact that the opponent's pass attempts have remained essentially the same over the past three seasons (i.e. 2005-2007), but the number of sacks plummeted this past season. The final part of this equation is how it compares to what is occurring throughout the league -- i.e. has the percentage of sacks, relative to pass attempts, also declined league-wide? Here's a look (click on the image for a closer look):

We're Steelers fans, we don't like to think of our team as "average." However it seems that that is precisely what the Steelers pass rush -- at least as reflected in the number of sacks -- was this past season; and that does represent a precipitous drop compared to the recent past.

However, it also seems that the number of sacks by the Steelers, in relation to the number of pass attempts by their opponents, is moving in the same general direction as the league average (though the Steelers have been decidedly above average for most of the past eight seasons), so there may be something larger at work.

What could that something be? Well, we wonder if teams are throwing shorter, quicker passes in an effort to negate pass rushes?

We'll save that for tomorrow!

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Thursday, January 17, 2008

Season in Review: Rushing Yards Allowed

In the aftermath of the Fred Taylor's romp through the Steelers' defense on December 16, 2007 we examined just how significant Aaron Smith was to the performance of the defense against the run, and as our analysis showed he was pretty significant.

And as part of our post-season review we looked at the passing yards surrendered by the Steelers, and found that they actually improved quite a bit in that area compared to the previous season.

Those two facts led us to wonder just how the Steelers did against the run? That is, did the improvement against passing attacks come about because of an increased vulnerability to the ground game? Here are the numbers for the seasons 2000-2007:

20002001200220032004200520062007
1,6931,1951,3751,7411,2991,3761,4121,438

Though slightly worse than the 2006 season, the Steelers defense was still third best in the NFL against the run in 2007 (and the 224 yards by Jacksonville in the first meeting represented 15.58% of the total allowed this past season), and is second best over the entire eight year period (96 yards behind Baltimore) so there's little doubt that the Steelers' defense is playing great football, right? Well, look at this (click on the image for a larger picture):


The Steelers are performing amazingly well compared other defenses, but over the last four seasons the trend -- slightly, almost imperceptibly -- has been incrementally worse; and they have not come close to repeating their breath-taking performance of 2001.

When considering where the Steelers' most immediate problems lie, run defense is way down the list. However, the trend line bears watching, and underscores the need for improved depth along the defensive line (i.e. someone to replace Pro Bowl caliber Aaron Smith and Casey Hampton if/when they are injured -- no easy task).

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Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Season in Review: Passing Yards Allowed

In the January 20, 2008 issue of Pro Football Weekly (PFW) the editors begin the process of getting us all ready for the NFL draft by providing a brief look at what they perceive to be each team's biggest needs. According to PFW the Steelers require "a blue-chip cornerback, a factor that becomes apparent against top competition. Safety could also be a position that needs bolstering if [free safety] Anthony Smith can't bounce back from a forgettable second NFL season."

It's hard to argue with those assessments -- and it's one that we've heard and read from other sources -- so we thought we'd go ahead and take a look at the net passing yards (i.e. gross passing yards minus yards lost via sacks -- we believe it provides a more holistic perspective on pass defense, at least compared to gross passing yards allowed) allowed by the Steelers in period 2000-2007, and then compare that with the rest of the National Football League.

First, as always, here are the number of passing yards the Steelers have surrendered the last eight seasons:

20002001200220032004200520062007
3,0192,9423,4603,0422,8353,1683,3932,824

The lowest total in the past eight seasons? That isn't at all what we expected. Moreover, the Steelers surrendered the third fewest passing yards in the NFL this season (only Tampa Bay and Indianapolis gave up fewer) -- that after a 2006 season in which twenty teams gave up fewer net passing yards. Indeed, other than being torched by Tom Brady (399 yards) the Steelers did not give up 250 net passing yards in any single game this past season. So despite the lack of a blue-chip cornerback, and Anthony Smith's struggles, the Steelers' pass defense showed marked improvement this past season.

As for how the Steelers most recent eight seasons measure up to the competition, here's a look (click on the image for a closer look):


Relative to the other teams in the NFL it appears that pass defense is something of a Steelers strength -- no matter what any of us fans, or the experts, might think.

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Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Season in Review: Points Allowed

We took an extended look at the offense last week, and now it's time to turn our laser-like gaze on a defensive unit that took some knocks on the field in the final month of the season, and has absorbed some proverbial knocks from fans and media since the season concluded.

Inasmuch as the game, at its most basic level, is about scoring points let's start off with a couple of simple questions: How many points did the Steelers allow in 2007? And how does that compare with the rest of the National Football League?

Here's a look at the five best teams in average points allowed for the period 2000-2007:

TeamAverage Points Allowed
Tampa Bay276.25
Baltimore277.13
Steelers279.00
Philadelphia282.13
New England287.88
Jacksonville298.25

Having established that that the Steelers have one of the finest scoring defenses in the NFL (something which we all knew, at least intuitively) here's a look at the Steelers' points against relative to the average number of points allowed by all the NFL's teams (click on the image for a better look):


As can be clearly seen the NFL average for points allowed has consistently hovered just below the 350 point mark, and other than a couple of seasons (i.e. 2002 and 2003 -- the final seasons that Tim Lewis served as defensive coordinator before Dik LeBeau returned in 2004) the Steelers have been much better than average. Further, 2007 represented a significant improvement over 2006 (315 points v. 269 points).

Additionally, the Steelers are one of 11 teams not to give up 400 points in any of the eight seasons at which we looked (the others are Baltimore, Chicago, Green Bay, Jacksonville, New England, New York Giants, New York Jets, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, and Washington)

Finally, and just for fun, here are the five (ok, six) teams who are the worst at allowing points during this same time period:

TeamAverage Points Allowed
Cincinnati & Atlanta368.25
Houston376.00
San Francisco381.00
Detroit387.25
St. Louis390.75
Arizona394.00

So it seems that Clancy Pendergast -- the defensive coordiantor for Ken Whisenhunt's Arizona Cardinals -- has his work cut out for himself, doesn't it? And how did the Cardinals do this first season under Mr. Pendergast, you ask?

They gave up 399 points.

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Friday, January 11, 2008

Season in Review: Sacks Allowed

Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin appeared on Sirius radio's Movin' the Chains The Red Zone show Thursday morning, and when asked about pass protection for Ben Roethlisberger the coach had this to say: "We've got to get better in that area . . . it's a glaring issue . . . it's about getting the ball out of [the quarterback's] hand . . . and receivers recognizing hot [reads]."

We appreciate the coach pointing out that it isn't always about the offensive line, though that certainly is a big part of the equation. So we've decided to take a look at this issue a couple of different ways -- the number of sacks per season from 2000-2007, the number of pass attempts in each of those seasons, and the ratio of sacks to pass attempts.

The number of sacks each season, compared to the NFL average per season looks like this:

20002001200220032004200520062007
Sacks - NFL Avg.39.8738.6136.7234.1337.3836.9436.3434.44
Sacks - Steelers43.0031.0034.0042.0036.0032.0049.0047.00

The Steelers have given up fewer sacks than the average NFL team in four of the seasons, and more in four seasons. What's interesting about that is that the 2007 season was the only one in which the Steelers gave up more than the average number of sacks and still managed to make the playoffs.

Of course the number of sacks can be -- almost certainly is -- effected by the number of times a quarterback drops back to throw. Here are the number of pass attempts -- both the NFL average and the Steelers' -- for the same period:

20002001200220032004200520062007
Pass Attempts
- NFL Avg.
526.58521.97540.38515.41511.06514.50512.16532.66
Pass Attempts -
Steelers
440.00454.00551.00532.00358.00379.00523.00442.00

What stands out of course is that despite the fact that the Steelers threw the football less in 2007 than in 2006 the number of sacks remained essentially the same. Here is what the ratio of sacks to pass attempts looks like graphically:


To say that the Steelers are, and have been, moving in the wrong direction is an understatement; and it appears that 2007 represented an acceleration of a bad trend.

In his interview on Sirius radio, Coach Tomlin described himself as being "more energized than I've ever been" about the work that needs to be done during the offseason. That's a good thing -- because there's obviously a great deal of work to do.

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Thursday, January 10, 2008

Season in Review:
The Bob Ligashesky Edition

Added Note: Here is an excerpt of a report from the Associated Press/Yahoo! Sports on Mike Tomlin's final press conference of the 2007 season:

"As he watched film after being hired nearly a year ago, Tomlin said he realized losing special teams players such as Sean Morey, Mike Logan and Chidi Iwuoma would be a major setback. Also, linebacker James Harrison became a starter and didn't play as much on special teams.

"I wasn't interested in throwing up a red flag and saying, `Hey, I am worried about special teams,' but obviously I was," Tomlin said. "A special teams unit is comprised of four or five core guys. ... It would be the equivalent of losing seven, eight, nine starters on an offensive or defensive unit."

Kick coverage must improve next season, he said, but there "are not enough dynamic playmakers that you can build a core unit around
."


Original Post
People are looking for Bob Ligashesky.

Whether it's to simply find out more about the life and career of the Steelers' special teams coach, or something . . . less wholesome . . . we do not know. But given this recent spate of interest in the special teams and their coach we decided to jump them to the front of our "Season in Review" line. In this installment we are going to look at four phases of special teams -- average yards per punt return (i.e. by the Steelers), average yards allowed per punt return (i.e. against the Steelers), average yards per kick return, and average yards allowed per kick return.

Additionally, rather than comparing the Steelers' averages to the NFL averages -- thereby averaging an average -- we are comparing the Steelers' averages to the league's median performance in those same categories. As with our other season reviews we are also putting the numbers into a historical context by looking at eight years of performance (2000-2007). So, without further adieu, here's how average yards per punt return looks:


Clearly 2007 continued a discouraging trend that has been arrested only twice -- 2003 and 2005 -- by Antwaan Randle-El. But while the general performance of the punt return unit has been poor over the last eight seasons we see that the unit now finds itself decidedly in the lower half of punt return units in the league. Indeed, 2007 was the worst season if the eight we examined.

And while punt returns by the Steelers continued its long slide into mediocrity, punt coverage had its worst season since 2005:


Coming out of the 2006 season -- the Steelers' finest during this eight season period -- it may be said that there was no place to go but down (which, in our graph, is up), and that is precisely what happened. Indeed, while still better than the median, the difference was minimal.

Given the poor performance of the punt teams an "average" performance by the kicking teams would probably be welcome -- and it's exactly what the Steelers delivered. Here's a look at the kick return unit:


Other than a horrible 2001 season the performance of the Steelers' kick return team has almost exactly mirrored the overall trend within the league itself, though almost always performing slightly below the median.

And finally we have the kick coverage team -- the bane of every Steelers fan:


Since the 2003 season the Steelers' kick coverage unit has gotten progressively worse, allowing more yardage on each return every season -- and almost exactly mirroring what has occurred throughout the league.

These graphs pretty much confirm what all Steelers fans know -- that even on a good day, the Steelers' kick/punt return/coverage units have been no better than average for quite awhile. It's a phase of the game that, as we were witness to last Saturday (and as we've seen in games against New England and Cincinnati and, seemingly, countless others), can be a difference maker. There is little doubt that the coaches and players are trying to make plays on special teams. However, unless the team is prepared to use its starters on those units, Kevin Colbert has to do a better job of choosing players in the later rounds who, while they may not be every down players, can become contributors on special teams (in other words, no more Fred Gibson's in the fourth rounds of drafts).

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Wednesday, January 09, 2008

Season in Review: Passing Yards

We continue to assess the 2007 Pittsburgh Steelers within a historical context (both in comparison to previous Steelers teams, and compared with NFL averages), and turn our attention to the passing attack. As we saw in our assessment of the running game that facet of the offense has declined slightly in net total yards. Given that we expected a slight upward trend in passing yardage. Here's what the numbers look like:

Season20002001200220032004200520062007
Net Passing Yards2,5433,1133,8323,3042,7202,9263,7333,071

The idea that winning teams run more (i.e. they run because the are winning) and losing teams throw is challenged somewhat by the numbers we see here. The 2002 Steelers -- which threw for the more yards than any other during the last eight seasons -- had a record of 10-5-1, and went on to reach the divisional playoff round before losing a close game (can anyone forget the roughing the kicker call against Dewayne Washington?). However, the drop of nearly 18% in passing yards from 2006 to 2007 that coincides with an improved recordis in line with expectations.

We now turn our attention to how the Steelers measure up to the NFL averages, and here's how that looks:


The Steelers have been, more-or-less, slightly below average in passing yards compared to the competition -- as expected.

We also want to take a look, side-by-side, at the trends in the rushing and passing games:


What is surprising about this graphic is that the two lines do not routinely move in opposite directions. Our expectation was that as one facet of the offensive attack increased, the other would decrease. Instead, we see that both facets have trended (with some exceptions -- see 2004-2006) in the same direction (see 2000-2003, and 2007) leading us to conclude that overall offensive output, rather than remaining fairly consistent, expands and contracts.

To find out whether this is found throughout the league we offer one last chart showing the Steelers rushing and passing yardage along with the NFL averages for rushing and passing:


Averages flatten out the lines, we get that. But there just something . . . different about the Steelers offensive output; and honestly, we're not sure what to think.

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