San Diego vs. Steelers: The good, the bad, & the ugly

We know what you are saying: It was all ugly, wasn't it?

It was ugly enough that we stopped watching the game after the fourth quarter interception of Ben Roethlisberger's pass by San Diego linebacker Bront Bird (there was yard work to do, and it seemed like a good release for all the frustration). But there is value in finding the good amongst the hideous, and that is what this week's effort is -- looking for a diamond (however small) in the rough.

The Good

We warned you it might be like this: Our introduction to the weekly matchups went like this:

One might look at the Chargers' horrible record (4-8) and be tempted to take this week's Steelers opponent lightly. But this Chargers team is so much better than their record, or statistics, indicate that it promises to be a long, tough battle at Heinz Field on Sunday. Indeed, the Chargers are 0-3 against the AFC North this season, but the losses were by a combined 11 points (with seven of that coming last week versus Cincinnati), and in their road games this season the Chargers are 2-4, but have only been outscored by a combined 8 points (114-122).

So, take us more seriously from now on, won't you?

First half defense: We admit that we are reaching here, but given the ineptitude of the Steelers' offense it is amazing that the score was only 13-3. Moreover, the Chargers ran an incredible 41 plays in the first half but only gained 143 yards (a 3.49 yards per play average). Top all of that off with the fact that the average starting position for the Chargers' eight first half possessions was their own 45-yard line, and you have to tip your cap to Pittsburgh's defense for keeping it close.

The Bad

Hey Mike Tomlin, enough gambling, ok?: We understand the second quarter decision to go for it on fourth-and one at the Steelers' 47-yard line. It should have been a gimme'; but between this and the fake field goal attempt earlier this season . . . well, let's just say that we'd like to see the conservative Mike Tomlin re-emerge. The inability to get that one yard, and San Diego's ability to drive for a field goal ended up being a bigger deal than may have been apparent at the time.

Mike Wallace: We are tired of watching games in which Mr. Wallace follows up a costly penalty with a dropped pass. There is no way for us to know if this season long funk is the result of his holdout or some other issue entirely, but at this moment all we can say to him is don't let the door hit ya' where the good Lord split ya'.

The Ugly

The Steelers' Offense: The final game statistics make everything look much more palatable, but during the first half -- when the game was still winnable -- the Steelers' offense had eight possessions, six of which that ended with punts, one that ended on downs, and one that ended with a field goal. Stated another way, on the field goal drive in the first half the Steelers' offense gained 59 yards. On the other seven possessions the offense gained a total of 64 yards. Or, stated still another way, the Steelers' ten longest plays from scrimmage combined for a net of 212 yards (an average of 21.2 yards per play). Their other 51 offensive plays combined for 128 net yards (an average of 2.5 per play).

Second half defense: Down by ten to begin the second half the Steelers defense was immediately sliced and diced for a 78-yard, 9:32 touchdown drive by San Diego. The Steelers' offense was horrible, but after putting up a good fight in the first half it seems the defense had nothing left to give.

The Ultimate Spread Offense

Forget the run-and-shoot, the A-11 is the harbinger of things to come in offensive philosophy. Any offense that features one offensive lineman, two quarterbacks, and a host of potential receivers is something that has to get the attention of the NFL.

In a story that begins on its front page (in the print edition that is), the New York Times brings us the story of Piedmont High School's wacky offensive scheming and the controversy it has engendered with football purists.

And evidence is emerging that the A-11 is something of a California phenomena.

Season in Review: Fourth Down

We've looked at down one through three, and instead of checking out how the Steelers did on offensive plays run on fourth downs during the 2000 to 2008 seasons (they have had 121 such plays in eight seasons) we've opted to take a look at punting performance over the course of those seasons.

In the interest of full disclosure we looked at some of this information in our posting regarding special teams coach Bob Ligashesky, but we've added a bit of information here and filled things out just a bit. So, here's a look at the numbers:

Season	Punter(s)	Avg. Gross Yds. per Kick	Avg. Net Yds. per Kick	Inside the 20
2000	J. Miller	43.8	37.5	34
2001	J. Miller & K. Brown	41.4	34.6	23
2002	J. Miller & T. Rouen	41	33.2	15
2003	J. Miller	41.9	36	27
2004	C. Gardocki	43	37.4	24
2005	C. Gardocki & B. Roethlisberger	41.7	34.5	23
2006	C. Gardocki	41.3	36.7	11
2007	D. Sepulveda	42.4	37.9	28

In 2006 we were very vocal in our criticism of Chris Gardocki, and while we stand by that criticism the numbers -- in a historical context -- do not support us.

We can live that.

What we cannot understand, based upon the numbers, is why Bill Cowher was always so angry at Josh Miller! After an amazing first season Mr. Miller fell off somewhat, and suffered injuries as well (Kris brown punting? We vaguely remember that), and that bounced back in his final season in Pittsburgh.

Meanwhile, Chris Gardocki had a solid first season, and lousy second season, and then a bit of a comeback in season three. Of course the problem with Mr. Gardocki's kicks was that they were always low, line-drives thereby making the job of the coverage until that much more difficult.

Now we have Daniel Sepulveda. Like his two predecessors he had a very good first season -- his gross average was the third highest in the last eight seasons, his net average was the best of any Steelers punter during that period, and his kicks inside the twenty yard line was second best -- but of course the question is will he (like those predecessors) see a decline in his performance next season?

Just one of many questions to be answered beginning next September.

Season in Review: Third Down

In our reviews of first down plays and second down plays we've seen that while the mix of running plays v. passing plays has largely remained the same, the effectiveness of those plays (i.e. the average yardage gained per play) has steadily declined in recent seasons.

Now we turn our attention to third down plays, during the seasons 2000-2007, to determine whether the decline in yardage gained on first and second downs exhibited itself in play calling on third down, and whether or not the Steelers faced more third-and-long (i.e. 6 or more yards to go for a first down or a touchdown). As we've done with the downs one and two, here is a breakdown onn the numbers of running plays and passing plays called on third downs over the course of the last eight seasons:

	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
Rushing Plays	56	73	60	48	64	66	36	49
Passing Plays	174	162	163	179	155	126	181	172
Total Plays	230	235	223	227	219	192	217	221

There's nothing especially revealing about these numbers. In 2007 the Steelers had the fourth lowest total number of third down plays, the third lowest number of rushing plays, and the fourth lowest/highest number of passing plays. Additionally, for what it's worth, the number of running plays in 2007 was distinctly below average (56.5) while the number of passing plays was distinctly above average (164).

But of course our reason for continuing on with this analysis is to examine whether or not the Steelers faced significantly more third-and-long situations in 2007 than in seasons past. Here's a graphical look at that:


So there were more third-and-long situations in 2007 than in 2006, but only five more; however the real difference occurred from 2005 to 2006 -- while 2007 represented a continuation of that disturbing trend.

Finally, in the interest of thoroughness, we offer a look at the average yards gained per play on third down:


Once again we see a very interesting trend in which yardage for rushing and passing plays consistently move in the same direction, indicating that the effectiveness of rushing and passing enjoys a much more symbiotic relationship than we would have previously believed.

Season in Review: Second Down

In our look at first down play calling and its effectiveness we noticed that while the mix of pass-to-run was similar over the last eight seasons, we saw a decline in yards gained on first down in 2007. As a result we surmised that second down play calling would be effected. Here's a look at those numbers:

	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
Rushing Plays	196	182	155	151	230	178	160	174
Passing Plays	144	173	209	186	112	150	177	165
Total Off. Plays, First Down	340	355	364	337	342	328	337	339

The past season featured the fourth highest, and fourth lowest, percentage of running plays v. passing plays (51.33% v. 48.67%) over the last eight seasons. To say that 2007 was "average" is something of an understatement: From 2000-2007, on second down, the Steelers have averaged 178.25 rushing plays and 164.5 passing plays.

But the question we were really wondering about, based upon the first down yards gained in 2007, is whether or not the Steelers had more second-and-long situations that in seasons past. So we looked at how many second down plays the Steelers had on which they needed 5 or fewer yards, how many plays they had on which they needed between 6 and 10 yards, and how many plays on which they needed more than 10 yards. Here's a graphical look at the data:


As expected the 6-10 yard plays is overwhelmingly the #1 category in terms of total second down plays, and for only the second time in the last eight seasons the Steelers had more than 200 plays in that category. Also on the positive side, 2007 featured the fewest number of second-and-really long plays (44).

However, and this was to be expected, this past season also featured the fewest number of second-and-short -- i.e. five yards or fewer -- plays (88) of any season in the last eight. And while 2007 was the worst season in this regard, it was a continuation of a four year slide in the number of plays in which the Steelers offense had five or fewer yards to gain for a first down or touchdown.

Finally, as we move forward it is worthwhile to look at the average yardage gained on second down. Once again, here's a graphical look at the trends over the past eight seasons:


When we examined the Steelers' passing attack we saw that the effectiveness of the running and passing attacks have tended to expand and contract in the same direction, and we see something similar on second down. The average gain by running on second down has declined the past two seasons, and the same has occurred in the passing game as well.

We're beginning to see a trend here, and can only imagine what third down is going to look like.

Season in Review: First Down

We are going to continue our look at the 2007 season, and the seven seasons that came before it, by hopping back over to the offensive side of the football. Specifically we want to look at what, if anything, changed in Bruce Arians' first season as offensive coordinator. After all much was made of how Ben Roethlisberger's input was incorporated into the offensive playbook, so what imapact did it have? Here's a look at a breakdown on play calling (i.e. run v. pass) on first down over the last eight seasons:

	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
Rushing Plays	247	295	273	235	292	286	252	256
Passing Plays	182	167	214	199	147	142	214	168
Total Off. Plays, First Down	429	462	487	434	439	428	466	427

So many numbers . . . what stands out to us is that the 2007 season featured the fewest number of first down offensive plays in any of the last eight seasons, despite having the fourth highest number of first downs (298 -- that information is not included here, just take our word for it!) in the last eight seasons.

What also is noteworthy is that, despite the changes in offensive coordinator over the years (granted, for the time period we're looking at Kevin Gilbride was the coordinator for the 2000 season, Ken Whisenhunt was the coordinator from 2001-2006, and the Bruce Arians era began in 2007), and a change at the head coach position the mix of run-to-pass in quite similar. Here's a look at the percentage of run-to-pass, on first down, over the last eight seasons:

	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
Rushing Plays	57.58	63.85	56.06	54.15	66.51	66.82	54.08	60.66
Passing Plays	42.42	36.15	43.94	45.85	33.49	33.18	45.92	39.34

The final question we have is whether or not there are any differences, qualitatively, in the plays. In other words, how much yardage was gained, on average, by these running and passing plays. For that we offer this graph:


As the graph shows, other than 2001, the rushing yardage on first down has been fairly consistent (though the 2007 was the first decline after four consecutive seasons of improvement), and it is the passing yardage that has shown the most change; indeed the average yardage gained on first down passes has steadily declined over the last four seasons.

For all the talk at the beginning of the season about change, it seems that the Steelers' offense is still very much a run first attack. However, the downward trends in average yardage gained on first down -- in both rushing and passing -- is (no doubt) making things tougher on second and third down.