Strength of Schedule: Expectations v. Reality

Each summer the National Football League releases a memo showing each team's strength of schedule based upon the aggregated won-loss record of their opponents from the previous season. The offseason in the NFL stretches out seemingly forever, so when that particular release comes out all media outlets, both traditional (e.g. newspapers and magazines) and otherwise (e.g. blogs) are quick to share it with football fans starved for news. But just how accurate a predictor is that information of how difficult, or easy, the next season's schedule will be? We decided to compare the preseason numbers and what actually came to pass during the regular season. We've ordered the teams by their current position in the NFL draft:

Team	Preseason	Actual
Miami	.469	.539
St. Louis	.508	.512
Atlanta	.508	.512
Oakland	.516	.516
Kansas City	.527	.516
N.Y. Jets	.465	.523
San Francisco (pick to N.E.)	.477	.465
Baltimore	.523	.516
Cincinnati	.543	.461
New Orleans	.539	.480
Buffalo	.477	.516
Denver	.516	.516
Carolina	.504	.523
Chicago	.445	.543
Detroit	.473	.543
Arizona	.500	.434
Minnesota	.457	.504
Houston	.523	.516
Philadelphia	.520	.563
Tampa Bay	.539	.469
Washington	.516	.555
Cleveland (pick to Dallas)	.512	.430
Steelers	.531	.453
Tennessee	.527	.500
Seattle	.457	.414
Jacksonville	.488	.516
San Diego	.488	.500
Dallas	.504	.496
Indianapolis (pick to S.F.)	.484	.516
Green Bay	.449	.469
N.Y. Giants	.543	.516

One need only look at the teams in the AFC South and North in order to see the impact of a good, or bad, season on the strength of schedule of other teams in a division. Houston had their best season ever, and the actual strength of schedule exceeded the preseason number. Meanwhile, Baltimore and Cincinnati go into the tank in 2007, and the Steelers strength of schedule plummets (despite the improvement by Cleveland).

Oh, and for those who are wondering about New England (not included on our list because they do not have a first round pick that is, technically speaking, their own), their preseason strength of schedule was .473, while their actual strength of season in 2007 was .469.

The Strength of the 2007 Schedule

The NFL wizards have compiled the relative strength of each team's schedule -- the Steelers, despite their 8-8 record in 2006 play the NFL's 10th most difficult schedule, and the AFC North's second toughest schedule (two spots below Cincinnati).

The Steelers play four teams who made the playoffs last season (Seahawks, Jets, Patriots, and Ravens) and ten games versus teams whose 2006 winning percentage was .500 or better.

According to NFL the Buffalo Bills and Oakland Raiders have the toughest schedules this year -- the 2006 winning precentage of their respective 2007 opponents was .539 -- while the Arizona Cardinals have the easiest (.461).

To see a listing of the strength of schedule for all the teams click here (Adobe Acrobat required).

Some Games Announced

The New Orleans Saints will visit Indianapolis on Thursday, September 6, 2007 to open the NFL season.

Also, there will be a doubleheader on Monday evening with the Baltimore Ravens visiting the Cincinnati Bengals in the early game (7:00PM EDT), and the Arizona Cardinals will visit the San Francisco 49ers (the same 49ers team who seemingly beat the Steelers on every free agent the Steelers expressed an interest in signing) in the late game (10:15PM EDT).

Additionally, the NFL has announced the three Thanksgiving Day games:

Green Bay v. Detroit (12:30 PM EST)
New York Jets v. Dallas (4:15 PM EST)
Indianapolis v. Atlanta (8:15PM EST).

Steelers to Open 2007 in Arizona?

According to Weather.com the average high temperature in Glendale, Arizona in September is 101 degrees.

So, it is with some concern that we report on the rumor (as reported on the website of the Arizona Republic) that the NFL is considering asking the Steelers to open the season, in Glendale, against Ken Whisenhunt and the Arizona Cardinals.

Of course the University of Phoenix stadium has a retractable roof, but we all know that the Cardinals will do all the can to make the Steelers uncomfortable, and playing with that roof open would be part of the plan.

"At the NFL scouting combine, rumor and speculation are as prevalent as team logos. You bump into them everywhere you turn.

Here's one from Saturday. Word is the Cardinals might open the 2007 season Sunday night, Sept. 9, against the Steelers at the University of Phoenix Stadium.

It makes sense. Cardinals coach Ken Whisenhunt was an assistant with the Steelers, as was offensive line coach Russ Grimm. Both were thought to be possible successors to Bill Cowher, who stepped down. Instead, the Steelers hired Mike Tomlin.

Steelers fans are among the most supportive in the NFL, and Whisenhunt knows he has a ways to go to create that kind of passion in Arizona.

'There is a reason the Steelers have a loyal fan base, and it's because they won a lot of football games,' Whisenhunt said Saturday. 'Hopefully, we will put a product out there, a competitive, tough, smart team, that will win some games because we have some people that want to become fans.'"

It's More than Just an Honor

The recent announcement that the Steelers will be one of the participants in this summer's Hall of Fame game meant more than just a trip to Canton, Ohio for the Black & Gold faithful. As the following item from the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette points out it also means extra practice time -- no small consideration with all the changes to the coaching staff.

"The Steelers and new coach Mike Tomlin will get plenty of extra practice time with which to get acquainted this season.

The announcement that the Steelers and New Orleans Saints will open the NFL preseason Aug. 5 in the Pro Football Hall of Fame Game in Canton, Ohio, means more than just an additional preseason game for both teams.

It also means the Steelers will be allowed to open training camp a week earlier than usual. The Steelers have not officially identified their first day of training camp in Latrobe, but NFL rules allow the team to open camp two weeks before its first preseason game.

That means they likely will report to St. Vincent College the weekend of July 20-22, rather than July 27-29. The Steelers have not participated in the Hall of Fame game since they opened the preseason against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 1999.

In addition, because of Tomlin, the Steelers are allowed to hold an extra minicamp this year. League rules allow teams with a new head coach an extra offseason minicamp.

Tomlin has not set a date for the minicamp, either."

Steelers' 2007 Opponents Set

While it will be months before the 2007 NFL schedule is released, the Associated Press is reporting that the Steelers opponents for that season have been set.

At home the Steelers will face their division rivals (Baltimore, Cincinnati, and Cleveland) along with two teams from the NFC West (San Francisco and Seattle), two teams from the AFC East (Buffalo and Miami), and one team from the AFC South (Jacksonville).

On the road the Steelers will face their divisional rivals (Baltimore, Cincinnati, and Cleveland) along with two teams from the NFC West (Arizona and St. Louis), two teams from the AFC East (New England and the New York Jets), and one team from the AFC West (Denver).

The NFL schedule will be released sometime in May 2007.