Peter King's Super Bowl Preview

Peter King really is one of our favorites, but the pool report he filed from Friday's practice was a snoozer! So rather than finishing with that we decided to share his preview from the current issue of Sports Illustrated (and this is as good a time as any to thank the folks at SI ~ they have been incredibly helpful and generous during this NFL season, and we appreciate all they did for us!).

It is also worth mentioning that, in addition to the preview, this week's issue features a terrific article by Tim Layden on the ties that bind the Steelers and the city of Pittsburgh. The title of the article: "We are Family."

Super Bowl XLIII Preview: Cardinals vs. Steelers

A sixth ring for Pittsburgh or a historic first for Arizona? It all hinges on whether the NFL’s best defense can do what no one else has done in the playoffs: knock Larry Fitzgerald off his game

By Peter King

This super bowl has one significant element in common with last year's: The underdog most assuredly can win if it plays to its strength. In Super Bowl XLII the Giants had a chance against the mighty Patriots as long as New York's quick, flexible and unpredictable defensive front won the battle at the line of scrimmage. This year the Cardinals have a shot against the imposing Steelers if Larry Fitzgerald can make big plays like he did in the first three rounds of the playoffs.

Against the Falcons, Panthers and Eagles on successive weekends in January, the 6' 3", 220-pound fifth-year wideout torched secondaries for a total of 23 receptions, 419 yards and five touchdowns. When single-covered, Fitzgerald beat them long, as he did on the 62-yard flea-flicker touchdown against Philadelphia in the NFC Championship Game; when doubled, he leaped between defensive backs for jump balls thrown by Kurt Warner, as he did against Atlanta and Carolina. Also, Fitzgerald is more physical than he looks—"He's got a little tight end in him," says Rams cornerback Ron Bartell—and has been more effective in the middle of the field than in the past, the beneficiary of offensive coordinator Todd Haley's plan to make him a complete receiver. The 25-year-old Fitzgerald now does so many things that are hard to defend against that Pittsburgh's mantra in preparation for Super Bowl XLIII on Sunday in Tampa is: Expect him to make plays, but stop him from making the big plays.

The Steelers' defense must force the Cardinals to use 13 plays to score, not three. And to do that Pittsburgh will have to change some of its tendencies. For one, instead of allowing heat-seeking safety Troy Polamalu to roam the field, blitzing and intimidating at will, the Steelers might have to play him and free safety Ryan Clark in a more disciplined two-deep scheme, to ensure that Fitzgerald gets nothing deep. Second, the Steelers must alter their blitz philosophy. Defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau mostly reserves the blitz for obvious passing downs, but on occasion in this game he'll have to disrupt Warner by sending outside linebackers LaMarr Woodley and James Harrison on first- and second-down plays. And though LeBeau doesn't use bump coverage as much as some coordinators, he'd be wise to hit Fitzgerald plenty within the legal five-yard zone.

As defensive backs and coaches who faced Fitzgerald this year learned, you have to show him different looks over the course of the game. "I've been around some great receivers in 25 years in this league," says Jim Mora, Seattle's secondary coach in 2008 who was promoted to head coach after the season. "Jerry Rice ran every route with a purpose. Terrell Owens runs angry. Larry runs with a viciousness. He attacks the defense. He's become a much more physical player this year, but I don't think you can just play him in a physical way exclusively. He's too smart for that."

Here's more advice for the Steelers from players and coaches accustomed to seeing Fitzgerald in the NFC.

Reroute him as he comes off the line: Fitzgerald had 11 catches in two games combined against San Francisco this year, but only one of those went for more than 10 yards because the 49ers wouldn't let him get comfortable. "We make him start his route again whenever possible," says Niners secondary coach Johnnie Lynn. "That takes time off Kurt's clock. If Kurt gets a second taken away, with Larry starting his route again, it might take Larry out of the play." Lynn says he'll line up a corner inside of Fitzgerald and try to send him up the side on one play, then in the same formation the next time put the corner outside and try to force him to the middle. The key, Lynn says, is to not let Fitzgerald dictate the coverage.

Hit hard when the ball reaches his hands: "The Cardinals threw him five fades against us this year," says Rams safety Corey Chavous, "and they were 0 for 5. That's because Ron Bartell, who's 6' 1", played him so well." Which is where 6' 2" Steelers corner Ike Taylor comes in; he's likely to be matched against Fitzgerald on deep balls. Says Bartell, "When the ball is close or Fitzgerald's just getting it, I try to play through his hands and into his helmet. He's got the best hands in the league by far, so you want to be physical on his hands."

Pittsburgh has to attack Fitzgerald's body as well as the ball: "He did a LeBron against us last year," says Lynn. "They threw a jump ball in the end zone at the end of the half, and none of our guys got up to his elbow. He's special in crowds, the best of the big guys at going up for the ball." If the Steelers can't leap with Fitzgerald, they'd better make sure he feels the body shots on his way down in hopes of dislodging the ball.

Beware the flea-flicker: Only once in two games this postseason has a receiver—San Diego's Vincent Jackson—caught a ball beyond Pittsburgh's last defender. "You don't get behind our secondary," Taylor says. But twice in three games Fitzgerald has gained more than 40 yards on gadget plays. Polamalu must be smart enough to recognize the trap when the Cardinals try to pull it. Two months ago it would have been easier for Pittsburgh. The Steelers could have kept their two safeties back 100% of the time, because in the regular season there was no Arizona running game to worry about—the Cards ran the ball just 36% of the time. But with their tight ends' return to health and playing mostly with a lead in the playoffs, Arizona has run on 52% of its snaps. "Now we've got play-action back," Haley says. That will keep Pittsburgh's defensive backs guessing.

Watch the pick play: The Cards like to send Fitzgerald across the middle, expecting to free him by losing defenders in traffic. At least 12 snaps a game Arizona uses four-wide sets, which Pittsburgh sees very little of in the AFC North. In one of Haley's preferred formations, he bunches three wideouts on one side and puts Fitzgerald alone on the other. "The chess match is going to be the Pittsburgh linebackers on the Arizona receivers," says Lynn, "because on early downs Pittsburgh usually lets the linebackers drop in coverage. You can't leave Larry alone on the backside of that three-by-one formation. He'll either beat you deep or get lost in coverage over the middle."

The Steelers will have to pick their poison: Do you force Fitzgerald to the outside and risk getting beat deep down the sideline, or lay off and take your chances on a succession of 12-yard crosses and eight-yard curls?

Fitzgerald isn't the only player Pittsburgh has to worry about: Arizona has two other 1,000-yard receivers in Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston. Yet with LeBeau setting the tone the Steelers' defense will be confident. And why not? They're the No. 1 defense in the NFL. They mauled the Patriots and the Cowboys—two good downfield passing clubs—late in the season, harassing Matt Cassel and Tony Romo into five interceptions and eight sacks total while holding them to a 51% completion rate and two touchdown drives on 26 combined possessions.

Warner and Fitzgerald versus the new Steel Curtain is going to be a fair fight. Just remember that Arizona put up 32 points on Philadelphia's third-ranked defense in the NFC title game, with Fitzgerald contributing three first-half touchdown catches. If the Cardinals—and Fitzgerald—come close to duplicating that performance on Sunday night, they'll join the 1969 Jets, 2001 Patriots and 2007 Giants as history's unlikeliest Super Bowl winners.

Super Bowl XLIII: The Keys to Victory

We are not sure if all fans of the Steelers are like us, but if they were scheduled to play a high school team this week we could come up with twelve good reasons why the Steelers would lose.

Some call it pessimistic we prefer to think of it as . . . insightful.

However, because we tend to see challenges in every matchup Pittsburgh faces we try not to delve into pregame assessments. This week will be an exception, but we will try to be brief. With that in mind, here are our keys to a sixth Super Bowl victory for the Black & Gold:

The Offense

1. There is one aspect of play that trumps almost all others ~ turnovers. If the Steelers do not turn the football over their chances for winning will improve dramatically. If they turn the ball over, especially if they do so more than once, Monday is going to be a lousy day.


2. This game reminds us a great deal of the playoff game versus Indianapolis (January 15, 2006). In that game the Steelers possessed the ball for an incredible 34:52, whereas Indianapolis had the ball for 25:08 ~ and the Steelers still won by only three points.
   
   If the Steelers can possess the ball for something approaching 34:00, and don't turn the football over, they will win the game ~ perhaps by only three points.

The Defense

1. There is one aspect of play that trumps almost all others ~ turnovers. If the Steelers force turnovers their chances of winning will improve dramatically.


2. We don't know if we mentioned this but this game reminds of the January 2006 playoff game versus Indianapolis. In that game Peyton Manning, known for a quick release and not being sacked too often, (he was sacked a total of 17 times during the regular season) was dropped by the Steelers five times. Moreover, in that game pressure tended to come up the middle (James Farrior had 2.5 sacks) exactly where Mr. Manning could see it best. A similar approach against Kurt Warner is critical.


3. We have see others mention this, but it bears repeating ~ the Steelers secondary has to minimize big gains by the Cardinals' offense. If special teams does their job (see below), a long field will be the Steelers' best ally.

The Special Teams

1. On October 12, 2008 the Cardinals defeated the Dallas Cowboys by a score of 30-24. What is stunning about that is that the Cardinals scored three of their four touchdowns on special teams ~ two kickoff returns and a blocked punt for the winning score. The Steelers have not faced a better special teams group this season.


2. Mitch Berger is going to have to have a career day. During the 2008 regular season the Arizona offense scored 45 touchdowns. On average their touchdown drives were 6.93 plays in duration and covered 63.39 yards. The Arizona offense had 11 touchdown drives of ten plays or more; and to put that in perspective they had 13 touchdown drives of five plays or fewer. Yes, the Cardinals' offense is explosive, but keep them on a long field and the odds of them scoring decline significantly.

A Mile High View

The following is a portion of an article by Lynn DeBruin of the Rocky Mountain News previewing Sunday's matchup between the Broncos and Steelers.

"Matchups

• The skinny: The Steelers have faced three teams this season whose rushing attacks are among the league's top 10 - Atlanta (1), San Diego (2) and Jacksonville (6). Those also happen to be the three teams that have topped 100 yards rushing against them. The Steelers are hurting with nose tackle Casey Hampton battling a hamstring injury and safety Mike Logan out because of a hamstring injury.

• It's a fact: No individual running back has topped 100 yards against the Steelers this season. In fact, only one back has topped 70 yards rushing this season - Jacksonville's Fred Taylor gained 92.

When the Broncos pass the ball

• The skinny: This will be a different deal up front for the Broncos. While left tackle Erik Pears has performed well in place of injured Matt Lepsis, especially in the run game, this will be the defense that tests him the most so far on the edge with blitzes. The Colts blitzed a smattering of times, but Steelers defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau will bring far more pressure to bear. Choices have to be made quickly in protection.

• It's a fact: The Steelers have two games this season with six sacks each - Cincinnati and Oakland - and one game with four - San Diego.

When the Steelers run the ball

• The skinny: The Broncos didn't tackle against the Colts the way they have for much of the season. They'll need an effort like they had in New England if they are going to win. The Steelers' offensive rhythm comes from the run. When Pittsburgh doesn't get production on early downs, it often looks out of sorts. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has turned over the ball plenty, especially when he hasn't had the comfort of a running game.

• It's a fact: The Steelers have rushed for at least 143 yards in three games this season, and all three have come at Heinz Field, and two were their wins.

When the Steelers pass the ball

• The skinny: The physical toll of Roethlisberger's injuries might be catching up to him. A near-fatal motorcycle accident in the offseason, an emergency appendectomy just before the opener and a concussion against the Falcons have left him a little wobbly, no matter how much he says he's fine. His play says differently. He has tossed 11 interceptions, two of which were returned for touchdowns Sunday.

• It's a fact: The Broncos have limited quarterbacks not named Brady or Manning this season. Those two are the only quarterbacks to top 217 yards passing against Denver this season.

Special teams

• The skinny: No matter how well the Broncos kickers have done this season, it's difficult to give the team the nod against anyone, given the continued struggles to get quality field position in the return game. The Broncos are last in the league in average drive start, and that means they are making their offense go the long way.

• It's a fact: The Steelers have nine kickoff returns of at least 25 yards this season from rookie wide receiver Santonio Holmes, including a 42-yarder against Atlanta. The Broncos have one, a 27-yarder by rookie wide receiver Brian Clark against the Colts.

Intangibles

• The skinny: The Steelers are a different team at home. Four times this year, they have topped 340 yards on offense, and two of those have come at Heinz Field. Their only three games with at least 140 yards rushing have been at home, and both of their wins have come at home. The Broncos need the early lead, or it could be a disappointing flight home . . .

[P]rediction: Steelers 23-21."