Looking Ahead: Week 16

Like the team itself, Steelers fans will probably enjoy the win over Denver for about 12-24 hours before turning their collective attention to next weekend.

The Steelers travel to Baltimore for a 1:00PM matchup with the shell of what was formerly the Ravens.  Will the Steelers take care of business and pound what is now an undermanned team?  Or will the cumulative effects of playing four emotional games (okay, the blow-up over Indianapolis might not have been that emotionally taut) catch-up to the Steelers?

Meanwhile, in New Jersey, the Patriots will head to the Meadowlands looking to solidify their position as the #1 seed in the AFC, thereby assuring a bye week.  The other team ahead of the Steelers in the playoff race, Kansas City, hosts Cleveland.

Steelers @ Denver: It's Over except for the quick hits

That, my friends, it what 9-7 looks like.  Sure, there is no sense in panicking after one loss, but the defense is older and slower; and history is likely to judge the Super Bowl loss to Green Bay as the beginning of the end for a great group of football players.

If Demaryius Thomas plays the Steelers a few more times he may end up a first ballot hall-of-famer.

Many will point to the five sacks of Ben, but with two of those coming on the Steelers' final possession I'm willing to give the offensive line pretty decent marks considering that Denver's defense is probably the best the Steelers will see this season outside of their own division (and yes, I am including the Jets in that).

Other than a dropped pass I loved Jonathan Dwyer's performance (9 carries, 43 yards).

For one night at least, Kennan Lewis was not the answer at cornerback.

Finally, time of possession is overrated.

Steelers @ Denver: Halftime quick hits

Mike Wallace's halftime line:  1 catch, 2 penalties; preseason means nothing.

Antonio Brown: He is earning his contract extension already, and the one Mike Wallace wanted.

Did Casey Hampton already retire and not tell anyone?  Any time Denver has wanted to go up the middle they have done so with one offensive lineman.

On 3rd-and13 at the end of the first half Denver doesn't blitz off of Mike Adams' side of the line?  Uh, no wonder Jack Del Rio got fired in Jacksonville.

Steelers @ Denver: Wild Card Weekend

The Steelers limp into Denver a bruised and battered team; so while some (i.e. fans) may be taking the game for granted, right now the view here is that Pittsburgh is ripe for a first round upset, despite being early eight point favorites (for those inclined to place a wager, the safer bet would appear to be taking the under 39.5 combined points).

But pessimism is as natural to Steelers fans as snow is to Denver, so perhaps we should just look at the final numbers ~ which never lie.

Denver Offense v. Steelers Defense
Average total yards per game: Denver offense 23rd (316.6) v. Steelers defense 1st (271.8)

Average net rushing yards per game: Denver offense 1st (164.5) v. Steelers defense 8th (99.8)

Average net passing yards per game: Denver offense 31st (152.1) v. Steelers defense 1st (171.9)

Average points per game: Denver offense 25th (19.3) v. Steelers defense 1st (14.2)

Steelers Offense v. Denver Defense
Average total yards per game: Steelers offense 12th (372.3) v. Denver defense 20th (357.8)

Average net rushing yards per game: Steelers offense 14th (118.9) v. Denver defense 22nd (126.3)

Average net passing yards per game: Steelers offense 10th (253.4) v. Denver defense 18th (231.5)

Average points per game: Steelers offense: 21st (20.3) v. Denver defense 24th (24.4)

Special Teams
Average yards per punt return: Denver 3rd (12.7) v. Steelers 13th (10.5)

Average yards allowed per punt return: Denver 19th (11.5) v. Steelers 12th (8.4)

Average yards per kick return: Denver 15th (23.9) v. Steelers 10th (24.4)

Average yards allowed per kick return: Denver 20th (24.6) v. Steelers 17th (23.7)

Net yardage punting average: Denver 8th (40.2) v. Steelers 22nd (38.6)

Opponent net yardage punting average: Denver 12th (38.2) v. Steelers 17th (38.9)

Miscellaneous
Turnover differential: Denver 26th (-12) v. Steelers 29th (-13)

Time of possession: Denver 25th (29:37) v. Steelers 2nd (32:46)

Red Zone touchdown efficiency (touchdowns): Denver 24th (47.2%) v. Steelers 17th (50.9%)

Red Zone defense (touchdowns): Denver 14th (51.9%) v. Steelers 17th (54.8%)

Sacks allowed: Denver 23rd (42) v. Steelers 23rd (42)

Some Individual Numbers
AFC Passer rating: Tim Tebow, 15th (72.9) v. Ben Roethlisberger, 3rd (90.1)

AFC Leading rushers: Willis McGahee, 4th (1,199 yards, 4.8 yards per carry, 4 touchdowns) v. Isaac Redman, 24th (479 yards, 4.4 yards per carry, 3 touchdowns)

NOTE: Tim Tebow is the 15th leading rusher in the AFC with 660 yards, 5.4 yards per carry, and 6 rushing touchdowns.

AFC Leading receiver: Eric Decker, 42nd (44 catches, 612 yards, 13.9 per catch, 8 touchdowns) v. Mike Wallace 10th (72 catches, 1,193 yards, 16.6 yards per catch, 8 touchdowns)

NOTE: The Steelers have four receivers amongst the top 50 in the AFC (Mike Wallace #10, Antonio Brown #12, Heath Miller #31, and Hines Ward #38) while the Broncos have only one.

AFC Sack Leaders: Von Miller, 4th (11.5) v. LaMarr Woodley and James Harrison 9th (9.0)

Denver v. Steelers: Instant First Half Analysis

Pittsburgh Steelers Fanatic was created in the hopes of providing a more in-depth, thoughtful brand of football discourse. However, when a team plays horribly there isn't much you "analysis" possible, or even necessary.

Obviously the Broncos wanted to get off to a fast start, in the hopes of further discouraging a discouraged football team and creating unrest amongst the Steelers partisans. What the Broncos could have never counted on, though they may have hoped for it, is the way the Steelers are contributing to their game plan.

So, despite dominating the game in every statistical category except the score (e.g. First Downs: Denver 5, Steelers 13; Total Net Yards: Denver 106, Steelers 266; Total Offensive Plays: Denver 22, Steelers 40) the Steelers find themselves trailing 14-10 at halftime.

Fumbles, interceptions, and missed field goals will do that to a team.

And the fact that Cedric Wilson is returning punts would seem -- given that he has returned all of 13 punts in his previous five years in the NFL, and didn't return a single punt during the 2005 season -- an indication that Bill Cowher is no longer willing to tolerate what could charitably be described as the "growing pains" (i.e. fumbles).

On the defensive unit is performing reasonably well, however they continue to struggle mightily at stopping opponents after the Steelers offense turns the ball over. Given all the practice they are getting this season you would think that Dick LeBeau and his staff would have figured out this facet of the game.

Time for the second half kickoff!

A Mile High View

The following is a portion of an article by Lynn DeBruin of the Rocky Mountain News previewing Sunday's matchup between the Broncos and Steelers.

"Matchups

• The skinny: The Steelers have faced three teams this season whose rushing attacks are among the league's top 10 - Atlanta (1), San Diego (2) and Jacksonville (6). Those also happen to be the three teams that have topped 100 yards rushing against them. The Steelers are hurting with nose tackle Casey Hampton battling a hamstring injury and safety Mike Logan out because of a hamstring injury.

• It's a fact: No individual running back has topped 100 yards against the Steelers this season. In fact, only one back has topped 70 yards rushing this season - Jacksonville's Fred Taylor gained 92.

When the Broncos pass the ball

• The skinny: This will be a different deal up front for the Broncos. While left tackle Erik Pears has performed well in place of injured Matt Lepsis, especially in the run game, this will be the defense that tests him the most so far on the edge with blitzes. The Colts blitzed a smattering of times, but Steelers defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau will bring far more pressure to bear. Choices have to be made quickly in protection.

• It's a fact: The Steelers have two games this season with six sacks each - Cincinnati and Oakland - and one game with four - San Diego.

When the Steelers run the ball

• The skinny: The Broncos didn't tackle against the Colts the way they have for much of the season. They'll need an effort like they had in New England if they are going to win. The Steelers' offensive rhythm comes from the run. When Pittsburgh doesn't get production on early downs, it often looks out of sorts. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has turned over the ball plenty, especially when he hasn't had the comfort of a running game.

• It's a fact: The Steelers have rushed for at least 143 yards in three games this season, and all three have come at Heinz Field, and two were their wins.

When the Steelers pass the ball

• The skinny: The physical toll of Roethlisberger's injuries might be catching up to him. A near-fatal motorcycle accident in the offseason, an emergency appendectomy just before the opener and a concussion against the Falcons have left him a little wobbly, no matter how much he says he's fine. His play says differently. He has tossed 11 interceptions, two of which were returned for touchdowns Sunday.

• It's a fact: The Broncos have limited quarterbacks not named Brady or Manning this season. Those two are the only quarterbacks to top 217 yards passing against Denver this season.

Special teams

• The skinny: No matter how well the Broncos kickers have done this season, it's difficult to give the team the nod against anyone, given the continued struggles to get quality field position in the return game. The Broncos are last in the league in average drive start, and that means they are making their offense go the long way.

• It's a fact: The Steelers have nine kickoff returns of at least 25 yards this season from rookie wide receiver Santonio Holmes, including a 42-yarder against Atlanta. The Broncos have one, a 27-yarder by rookie wide receiver Brian Clark against the Colts.

Intangibles

• The skinny: The Steelers are a different team at home. Four times this year, they have topped 340 yards on offense, and two of those have come at Heinz Field. Their only three games with at least 140 yards rushing have been at home, and both of their wins have come at home. The Broncos need the early lead, or it could be a disappointing flight home . . .

[P]rediction: Steelers 23-21."

Denver v. Steelers: The Team Matchups

The Steelers are in desperate straits and things are looky quite bleak as they prepare to square off against the 5-2 Denver Broncos. Here are how the teams compare statistically.

Broncos Offense v. Steelers Defense
Average total yards per game: Broncos "O", 19th (311.0) v. Steelers "D", 6th (276.7)

Average net rushing yards per game: Broncos "O", 3rd (155.3) v. Steelers "D", 8th (92.3)

Average net passing yards per game: Broncos "O", 30th (155.7), v. Steelers "D", 8th (184.4)

Third down conversions: Broncos "O", 4th (43.8%) v. Steelers "D", 16th (38.0%)

Average points per game: Broncos "O", 27th (15.71) v. Steelers "D", 16th (20.71) -- this includes all points scored by opponents, including fourteen points scored by the Raiders' defense in last week's game.

Steelers Offense v. Broncos Defense
Average total yards per game: Steelers "O", 10th (345.0) v. Broncos "D", 11th (295.6)

Average net rushing yards per game: Steelers "O", 17th (110.4) v. Broncos "D", 7th (90.6)

Average net passing yards per game: Steelers "O", 7th (234.6) v. Broncos "D", 15th (205.0)

Third down conversions: Steelers "O", 4th (43.8%) v. Broncos "D", 5th (31.9%)

Average points per game: Steelers "O", 10th (22.43) v. Broncos "D", 2nd (15.71)


Special Teams
Average yardage per punt return: Broncos 26th (7.0), Steelers 29th (6.1)
Average yardage allowed per punt return: Broncos 20th (9.2), Steelers 18th (8.9)

Average yardage per kick return: Broncos 32nd (16.6), Steelers 15th (22.7)
Average yardage allowed per kick return: Broncos 29th (25.1), Steelers 24th (24.4)

Net yardage punting average: Broncos 21st (36.1), Steelers 15th (37.2)
Opponent net yardage punting average: Broncos 28th (39.2), Steelers 32nd (40.9)


Miscellaneous
Turnovers: Broncos 20th (-2), Steelers 27th (-5)

Time of possession: Broncos 13th (30:48), Steelers 12th (30:49)

Bill Cowher Press Conference Notes

Bill Cowher met with the assembled meeting on Tuesday, and thanks to the miracle of the internet Pittsburgh Steelers Fanatic was there. Here is a portion of what Mr. Cowher discussed.

• Injuries: Verron Haynes (ACL -- surgery on Wednesday) and Arnold Harrison (ACL -- surgery date TBD) have been placed in injured reserve, and are out for the remainder of the season. Roster moves are expected to be made this week. Four other players are out of the Denver game: Mike Logan, James Harrison, Willie Reid, and Jeff Hartings (MCL sprain, week-to-week). Several additional players are questionable, and still more are doubtful.
• 2-5: Mr. Cowher acknowledged that there is a great deal of frustration at having lost so many games, and he accepts responsibility for where the team is at seven games into the season.
• Coaching Status: He doesn't feel as though the uncertainty surrounding his status is having an affect.
• QB Play: One of last Sunday's interceptions was understandable -- Coach Cowher saw what Ben Roethlisberger saw -- but the other three are on Mr. Roethlisberger. Of course, not being able to run the ball in from the 1-yard line didn't help matters at all. But in the final analysis, Ben Roethlisberger is a good football who is going to bounce back.
• Concussions: Ben Roethlisberger felt fine, and was ok to play. However, Mr. Cowher understands the interest in his quarterback's situation, as well as his own situation (i.e. is Coach Cowher going to return for the 2007 season?), and "is going to deal with that."
• Chukky Okobi: He's a consistent, capable player. Marvin Phillips is going to get some extra work, as will Kendall Simmons (at center).
• Fourth Down Play Versus Oakland: Ben Roethlisberger would not have scored on the fourth and goal play, if he had run; and Coach Cowher has not seen any reluctance to run in Mr. Roethlisberger this season.
• Denver: The defense is one of the most talented groups in the league. They are not a very big group, but they have excellent team speed, and are aggressive to the ball.
• Special Teams: The Steelers are languishing near the bottom in several of the categories (e.g. kick coverage, punt return). He offered no explanation or excuses as to why that might be happening.
• Inconsistencies: Different areas have been inconsistent at different times, so it wouldn't be fair to point out any one area.
  
• Turnovers: The Steelers have turned over the football 18 times in 7 games -- that's a big problem.