Steelers @ Washington: The Matchups

The Steelers' tour through the NFC East ~ now with zero victories and two losses ~ continues as the they head to FedEx Field for a Monday night tilt versus the Redskins; and this may be their best opportunity for a win.

Looking just at the points scored by each team and the points allowed by each, and applying a pythagorean formula to calculate winning percentage we discover that the Redskins should be victorious in 56.4% of their games (approximately nine wins in a 16 game season, and 4.5 wins in eight games ~ which is how many the Redskins have played so far this season). To their credit they have won a number of close games (their largest margin of victory is eight points, and the average is 5.17) and have been close in their two losses (their largest margin of defeat was nine points, and the average is 5.5); but the feeling here is that this is a team that is not as good as their record (by way of comparison the pythagorean theory for the Steelers calculates to a 66.5% winning percentage ~ 10 wins in a 16 game season, and 4.65 wins in seven games).

Dazzled by our math wizardry, we offer up this week's numbers:

Washington Offense v. Steelers Defense
Average total yards per game: Washington offense 7th (364.3) v. Steelers defense 1st (236.0)

Average net rushing yards per game: Washington offense 2nd (155.3) v. Steelers defense 3rd (71.6)

Average net passing yards per game: Washington offense 18th (209.0) v. Steelers defense 1st (164.4)

Average points per game: Washington offense 23rd (20.63) v. Steelers defense 3rd (15.71)

Steelers Offense v. Washington Defense
Average total yards per game: Steelers offense 25th (291.7) v. Washington defense 6th (278.1)

Average net rushing yards per game: Steelers offense 18th (107.3) v. Washington defense 5th (82.8)

Average net passing yards per game: Steelers offense 24th (184.4) v. Washington defense 11th (195.4)

Average points per game: Steelers offense: 14th (22.14) v. Washington defense 8th (18.13)

Special Teams
Average yards per punt return: Washington 19th (9.4) v. Steelers 31st (4.8)

Average yards allowed per punt return: Washington 30th (14.3) v. Steelers 2nd (4.9)

Average yards per kick return: Washington 5th (25.1) v. Steelers 30th (20.0)

Average yards allowed per kick return: Washington 5th (20.4) v. Steelers 8th (20.9)

Net yardage punting average: Washington 32nd (31.8) v. Steelers 12th (39.1)

Opponent net yardage punting average: Washington 17th (37.2) v. Steelers 30th (41.5)

Miscellaneous
Turnover differential: Washington 13th (+2) v. Steelers 18th (0)

Time of possession: Washington 5th (32:30) v. Steelers 20th (29:34)

Red Zone touchdown efficiency (touchdowns): Washington 15th (51.9%) v. Steelers 3rd (70.6%)

Red Zone defense (touchdowns): Washington 16th (52.6%) v. Steelers 3rd (35.0%)

Sacks allowed: Washington 20th (16) v. Steelers 27th (24)

Some Individual Numbers
NFC Passer rating: Jason Campbell, 4th (100.5) v. AFC Passer Rating: Ben Roethlisberger, 8th (85.7)

NFC Leading rushers: Clinton Portis, 1st (944) v. AFC Leading Rushers: Mewelde Moore, 13th (322 yards)

NFC Leading receivers: Santana Moss, 4th (42 catches, 658 yards, 15.7 per catch, 5 touchdowns) v. AFC Leading Receivers: Hines Ward, 12th (28 catches, 376 yards, 13.4 yards per catch, 5 touchdowns)
Note: For the second week in a row the Steelers face a former Pittsburgh wide receiver ~ Antwaan Randle-El, 14th (33 catches, 50+ yards, 12.4 yards per catch, 1 touchdown).

NFC sack leaders: Andre Carter, 38th (2.0 sacks each) v. AFC sack leaders: James Harrison, 2nd (8.5)
Note: LaMarr Woodley is third in the AFC in sacks with 7.5

Giants v. Steelers: The Good,the Bad, & the Ugly

All losses are painful to watch, but this one ~ like the playoff loss to Jacksonville last season ~ was especially so. Like that game from last season the Steelers had a lead in the fourth quarter with the football, and proceeded to turn in one of the more pathetic "three-and-outs" in team history.

A tough loss indeed.

The Good

1. Are there words enough to praise the overall performance of the defense? Moreover, are there words enough to express the magnificence of Aaron Smith's performance? Our concern about the possibility that he would miss the game seems especially well-founded considering just how well the defense played with him on the field. For the first time this season the Giants failed to rush for 100 yards as a team, despite rushing the ball 35 times ~ the second highest total of their season (they rushed 36 times against Seattle, for 254 yards, on October 5).
   
   Based upon our analysis of Mr. Smith's impact he is, arguably, the most important leader on a defensive until filled with leaders.


2. Stop us if you've heard this before, but Mewelde Moore continues to do impressive work. He ran well, caught passes, and fielded punts. Indeed, his 84 yards rushing was equal to, or better than, the rushing totals of four other teams who faced that same Giants defense. He has become the workhorse for the Steelers' offense; and while we look forward to Willie Parker's return we are not nearly as anxious about seeing him back on the field as we were when he was first injured.


3. The offensive line is getting hammered by some in the media, as well as good Steelers fans (Big Dan the 'Burgh Man was quite vocal in his criticism Sunday evening); but we believe that group is being unfairly criticized.
   
   The Steelers rushed for 95 yards, and that did not occur despite the offensive line, but because of it. The focus on the number of sacks (5) is short-sighted ~ four of the sacks were the result of Ben Roethlisberger holding on to the football too long. We have been critical of Mr. Roethlisberger's propensity for holding on to the ball too long, but we have to admit that we are now unsure whether the blame lies with Mr. Roethlisberger, his receivers, or a combination therein. What is clear is that when a quarterback has upwards of five seconds to throw the football the offensive line has done its job. We are not saying that they were perfect (keep reading below), but they did a good job of controlling a strong pass rush and of opening holes for the running game ~ in other words, they played well enough to win.

The Bad

1. We do not have access to the coach's tapes, nor do we have their expertise, but somewhere in the mix of Bruce Arians, Ben Roethlisberger, Hines Ward, Nate Washington, and Limas Sweed are the parties responsible for the offensive debacle that was the fourth quarter, a quarter in which the Steelers "gained" -14 yards on 12 pass plays and one rushing play.
   
   The lack of any semblance of balance in play calling, especially considering that the Steelers were in the lead for most of that time, is mystifying. In our review of this season's offensive performance we discussed our concern that the offense was no longer capable of ball control offense. While we can appreciate a desire to pass on first down, thereby catching the Giants in a run-oriented defense, it also seems that Mr. Arians' fourth quarter play calling did nothing to take time off the clock (six of Mr. Roethlisberger's passes were incomplete and two were intercepted) which is reflected in their 3:53 time of possession in the final quarter.
   
   We've discussed Mr. Roethlisberger's habit of holding on to the ball too long, but the question has to be asked ~ is it really all his fault? Are the receivers getting off the line of scrimmage cleanly or are they being "out-physicalled"? It seemed that when deep patterns were called the receivers were getting open (or at least relatively open). Do the plays being run call for receivers to run shorter routes, in a tacit acknowledgment of some shortcoming of the offensive line?
   
   We admit that we are not sure if it is one of these factors, or some combination of all of them, but whatever it is torpedoed the Steelers' chances of a win on Sunday.


2. We have been very complimentary of the recent play by the special teams, but Sunday represented something of a backward step (especially for the coverage units) ~ and we are not even including the backup long snapper's miscue.
   
   Coming into the game the Giants had been average 20.2 yards per kick return. Sunday, they averaged 25.3 yards per kick return ~ 25.2% higher than the season average. Coming into the game the Steelers had allowed opponents 4.1 yards per punt return. On Sunday the allowed the Giants to average 9.3 yards per return.
   
   Perhaps it was just a one week blip ~ we can only hope.

The Ugly

1. We tend not to put much stock in the time of possession statistic, but in the case of Sunday's game we will make an exception.
   
   Giants: 34:24
   Steelers: 25:36
   
   This is the worst such result this season ~ more pitiable than even the performance against Philadelphia (i.e. the Steelers time of possession in that game was 27:26).


2. The injury bug, which had taken a couple of weeks off, came back with a vengeance Sunday. Ryan Clark's dislocated shoulder, while not serious in-and-of-itself, depletes an already depleted secondary; and the loss of Greg Warren . . . well, we all saw how important that was.


3. Justin Hartwig's personal foul penalty in the third quarter was ridiculous. The center is the leader of the offensive line, and that makes Mr. Hartwig's bone-head play that much worse.

Chances of a Win on Sunday Dimming

With evidence mounting that Aaron Smith will not play against the Giants, we cannot help but recall another instance of when the heralded rushing defense of the Steelers went into a key game without Mr. Smith and was humbled.

We have no doubt that, whatever the situation, Aaron Smith is doing the proper thing; but the feeling here is that without him on the field Brandon Jacobs' day is going to be significantly easier.

On the other hand, with Santonio Holmes out of Sunday's contest one can hope that Limas Sweed will have more than a few balls thrown his way.

Friday's Injury Report

Here is the final injury report of the week, directly from the NFL:

"Status Report

OUT

LB Keyaron Fox (hamstring), CB Bryant McFadden (forearm), T Marvel Smith (back)

DOUBTFUL

RB Willie Parker (knee)

QUESTIONABLE

DE Aaron Smith (not injury related)

Practice Report

DID NOT PARTICIPATE IN PRACTICE

Wednesday

RB Najeh Davenport (not injury related), LB Keyaron Fox (hamstring), DE Brett Keisel (not injury related), CB Bryant McFadden (forearm), DE Aaron Smith (not injury related), T Marvel Smith (back), CB Deshea Townsend (not injury related), WR Hines Ward (not injury related)

Thursday

LB Keyaron Fox (hamstring), CB Bryant McFadden (forearm), DE Aaron Smith (not injury related), T Marvel Smith (back)

Friday

LB Keyaron Fox (hamstring), CB Bryant McFadden (forearm), RB Willie Parker (knee), DE Aaron Smith (not injury related), T Marvel Smith (back)

LIMITED PARTICIPATION IN PRACTICE

Thursday

RB Willie Parker (knee)

FULL PARTICIPATION IN PRACTICE

Thursday

RB Najeh Davenport (not injury related), DE Brett Keisel (not injury related), CB Deshea Townsend (not injury related), WR Hines Ward (not injury related)

Friday

RB Najeh Davenport (not injury related), DE Brett Keisel (not injury related), CB Deshea Townsend (not injury related), WR Hines Ward (not injury related)"

We Were First!

With the Giants and Steelers squaring off this weekend there has been a great deal of discussion about "Ben or Eli: Who is better?"

We would like to remind you all that we led the way on that topic.

So, just how are the Steelers doing --The Defense

As promised in our similar assessment of the offense, we now offer a look the Pittsburgh Steelers' 2008 defense in the historical context of the past nine seasons. However before getting started we feel compelled to offer this warning: these numbers may be an illusion.

Opponent's total points scored, per game average
Here, ranked in order from lowest to highest, are the average total points scored per game by Steelers' opponents:

1. 13.25 (2001)


2. 14.83 (2008)


3. 15.69 (2004)


4. 15.94 (2000)


5. 16.13 (2005)


6. 16.81 (2007)


7. 19.69 (2006)


8. 20.44 (2003)


9. 21.56 (2002)

To say that the defense has performed well so far (13.5% below the nine season average of 17.15) this season is an understatement. If this unit continues to deliver results like these for the remainder of the season they will be making history.

Opponent's first quarter points scored, per game average

1. 2.06 (2001)


2. 2.83 (2008)


3. 3.06 (2006)


4. 3.81 (2003)


5. 4.19 (2000)


6. 4.19 (2007)


7. 4.88 (2005)


8. 4.94 (2002)


9. 4.94 (2004)

More excellent results ~ shutting down opponents early and often, and more than a full point below the nine year average of 3.88.

Opponent's second quarter points scored, per game average

1. 2.63 (2004)


2. 3.06 (2005)


3. 4.56 (2002)


4. 4.75 (2000)


5. 4.88 (2007)


6. 5.00 (2008)


7. 5.06 (2001)


8. 6.13 (2003)


9. 6.13 (2006)

The defense proves it is human.

Opponent's third quarter points scored, per game average

1. 0.81 (2001)


2. 1.00 (2008)


3. 3.13 (2000)


4. 3.38 (2005)


5. 4.06 (2006)


6. 4.13 (2004)


7. 4.38 (2007)


8. 4.44 (2003)


9. 5.38 (2002)

The nine year average for this quarter is 3.41, meaning that this year's defense is more than 70% to the good, and within hailing distance of the 2001 unit's record.

Opponent's fourth quarter points scored, per game average

1. 3.19 (2007)


2. 3.69 (2000)


3. 4.00 (2004)


4. 4.25 (2005)


5. 5.13 (2001)


6. 5.88 (2003)


7. 6.00 (2008)


8. 6.25 (2006)


9. 6.69 (2002)

The curse of the prevent defense?

Opponent's total first downs, per game average

1. 15.50 (2004)


2. 15.56 (2007)


3. 15.75 (2000)


4. 15.88 (2001)


5. 16.50 (2008)


6. 16.81 (2006)


7. 16.88 (2003)


8. 17.19 (2005)


9. 17.44 (2002)

Given the excellent results in scoring defense it seems a small point to quibble about, but ~ and this is something we have noticed in games ~ the 2008 defense seems absolutely intent (like most defensive units) to do all it can to keep from giving up big plays (think last season's New England game). So if teams pick up first downs on along the way so be it, even if it means the 2008 unit is performing below the nine season average in this category (16.39).

Opponent's rushing first downs, per game average

1. 4.00 (2008)


2. 4.38 (2001)


3. 4.50 (2006)


4. 4.63 (2007)


5. 4.69 (2005)


6. 4.81 (2002)


7. 4.94 (2004)


8. 5.13 (2000)


9. 5.56 (2003)

With Casey Hampton having eaten is way onto the PUP list and beyond it amazes us that the defense continues to perform as well as it is; and it also reinforces what we said last season ~ the Steelers are a different team with Aaron Smith in the lineup.

Opponent's passing first downs, per game average

1. 9.13 (2004)


2. 9.56 (2000)


3. 9.69 (2003)


4. 9.88 (2007)


5. 10.00 (2001)


6. 11.00 (2006)


7. 11.13 (2002)


8. 11.17 (2008)


9. 11.19 (2005)

For all the good work in controlling ground attacks the soft underbelly of the defense continues to be the secondary.

Opponent's first downs by penalty, per game average

1. 1.06 (2000)


2. 1.06 (2007)


3. 1.31 (2005)


4. 1.31 (2006)


5. 1.33 (2008)


6. 1.44 (2004)


7. 1.50 (2001)


8. 1.50 (2002)


9. 1.63 (2003)

That 2003 team (i.e. offense and defense) looks worse with every passing statistic.

Next we look at play propensity ~ i.e. the mix of run-to-pass:

Opponent's pass attempts, per game average

1. 30.25 (2003)


2. 30.25 (2004)


3. 32.50 (2000)


4. 32.81 (2001)


5. 33.06 (2006)


6. 33.50 (2007)


7. 34.17 (2008)


8. 34.31 (2005)


9. 35.81

The concern over the number of first downs given up via the pass is muted somewhat by the number of passes the Steelers' stout run defense is forcing.

Opponent's rushing attempts, per game average

1. 21.19 (2001)


2. 22.31 (2004)


3. 22.44 (2002)


4. 22.56 (2007)


5. 23.67 (2008)


6. 25.13 (2005)


7. 25.50 (2006)


8. 26.63 (2000)


9. 28.06 (2003)

Slightly below the nine year average (24.16).

Opponent's net passing yards, per game average

1. 158.67 (2008)


2. 176.50 (2007)


3. 177.19 (2004)


4. 183.88 (2001)


5. 188.69 (2000)


6. 190.13 (2003)


7. 198.00 (2005)


8. 212.06 (2006)


9. 216.25 (2002)

This is incredible ~ the second highest average of pass attempts per game in the past nine seasons is yielding, on average, the lowest number of yards? However, though we want to be really excited about this, this statistic is what got us thinking beyond just the numbers. The Steelers have faced two young quarterbacks (i.e. Joe Flacco and Ryan Fitzpatrick), and we're beginning to wonder just how much this has effected the numbers.

Opponent's net rushing yards, per game average

1. 69.67 (2008)


2. 74.69 (2001)


3. 81.19 (2004)


4. 85.91 (2002)


5. 86.00 (2005)


6. 88.25 (2006)


7. 89.88 (2007)


8. 105.81 (2000)


9. 108.81 (2003)

Whatever the reason, this season's number is eye-popping! The 2008 average is nearly 20 yards below the nine year average (87.80).

So there is plenty to feel good about, right? Something worth keeping in mind is that, overall, the quality of the offenses the Steelers have faced so far has not been the greatest. For example, in terms of average points per game, here are where the six teams the Steelers have faced so far this season are ranked in the NFL:

• Philadelphia, 4th


• Houston, 14th


• Jacksonville, 22nd


• Baltimore, 26th


• Cleveland, 30th


• Cincinnati, 31st

By way of comparison here are how the Steelers' next four opponents stackup in the same category:

• New York, 2nd


• Washington, 23rd


• Indianapolis, 20th


• San Diego, 6th

Tougher to be sure, and how long will the Colts continue to struggle? For Steelers fans we can only hope that they do not get back on track until some time after Thanksgiving.

The takeaway from all of this is that, for all the great work the defense has done so far, bigger challenges lay ahead.

Thursday's Injury Report

Willie Parker practices!

"DID NOT PARTICIPATE IN PRACTICE

Wednesday

RB Najeh Davenport (not injury related), LB Keyaron Fox (hamstring), DE Brett Keisel (not injury related), CB Bryant McFadden (forearm), DE Aaron Smith (not injury related), T Marvel Smith (back), CB Deshea Townsend (not injury related), WR Hines Ward (not injury related)

Thursday

LB Keyaron Fox (hamstring), CB Bryant McFadden (forearm), DE Aaron Smith (not injury related), T Marvel Smith (back)

LIMITED PARTICIPATION IN PRACTICE

Thursday

RB Willie Parker (knee)

FULL PARTICIPATION IN PRACTICE

Thursday

RB Najeh Davenport (not injury related), DE Brett Keisel (not injury related), CB Deshea Townsend (not injury related), WR Hines Ward (not injury related)"

Injury Report from the NFL

This is the text from Wednesday's injury report:

"DID NOT PARTICIPATE IN PRACTICE

Wednesday

RB Najeh Davenport (not injury related), LB Keyaron Fox (hamstring), DE Brett Keisel (not injury related), CB Bryant McFadden (forearm), DE Aaron Smith (not injury related), T Marvel Smith (back), CB Deshea Townsend (not injury related), WR Hines Ward (not injury related)"

We wonder if the player's whose lack of participation was "not injury related" was related to this on-going controversy.

So, just how are the Steelers doing?

With the Steelers sporting a 5-1 record fans of the Black & Gold have every reason to feel good. Of course the toughest part of the Steelers' schedule is still in front of them, so we wanted to get a sense of just how well the team is performing.

So, in the same vein as our 2000-2007 statistical review, we try to bring some historical context ~ beginning with the offense ~ to this season's performance. Specifically, we are going to look at key offensive statistical categories for the 2000-2007 seasons (inclusive) and compare this season's numbers for the first six games to those.

Total points scored, per game average
Here, ranked in order from highest to lowest, are the average total points per game:

1. 24.56 (2007)


2. 24.38 (2002)


3. 24.31 (2005)


4. 23.50 (2008)


5. 23.25 (2004)


6. 22.06 (2006)


7. 22.00 (2001)


8. 20.06 (2000)


9. 18.75 (2003)

So far this season the offense is well above average (22.54) in scoring; but what we find more interesting is that the two season's in which the Steelers had their best won-loss records (2001: 13-3, 2004: 15-1) were far from the highest scoring seasons.

First quarter points scored, per game average
In our recent assessment of the game versus the Bengals we bemoaned the fact that the offense seemingly took a break during the middle two quarters of the game. So we decided to break down the offensive scoring by quarter. Here, ranked in order from highest to lowest, are the average number of points scored in the first quarter:

1. 7.69 (2004)


2. 7.06 (2002)


3. 6.19 (2005)


4. 5.00 (2008)


5. 4.69 (2007)


6. 4.13 (2006)


7. 3.75 (2001)


8. 3.63 (2000)


9. 3.13 (2003)

Once again the 2008 season is compares favorably to seasons that have come before, and is right at the average (5.03) for this nine season period.

Second quarter points scored, per game average

1. 8.06 (2007)


2. 7.75 (2002)


3. 7.56 (2005)


4. 6.75 (2001)


5. 6.69 (2006)


6. 6.19 (2000)


7. 6.17 (2008)


8. 5.88 (2003)


9. 5.63 (2004)

Over the course of the last nine seasons the second quarter has been the Steelers' highest scoring period, on average, of the game. So far this season the offense is performing nearly 10% below the nine year average for second quarter scoring (6.74), and is at its lowest level since 2004 ~ the season the Steelers were 15-1.

Third quarter points scored, per game average

1. 6.44 (2005)


2. 6.38 (2001)


3. 6.33 (2008)


4. 5.81 (2003)


5. 4.25 (2007)


6. 4.19 (2000)


7. 3.81 (2002)


8. 3.63 (2006)


9. 2.94 (2004)

It is beginning to appear that there is no relationship between when the Steelers score and how many games they win. The previously mentioned season of 2004 saw the Steelers produce their worst third quarter scoring total (on average). Meanwhile in 2008 the third quarter has, so far, been #1 for scoring, and well above the nine year average (4.86).

Fourth quarter points scored, per game average

1. 7.56 (2007)


2. 7.25 (2006)


3. 7.00 (2004)


4. 6.06 (2000)


5. 5.56 (2002)


6. 5.50 (2008)


7. 4.94 (2001)


8. 4.13 (2005)


9. 3.94 (2003)

Our criticism of the offense's performance against Cincinnati not withstanding, it appears that, on average, the middle two quarters are their best. Was the Bengals game an anomaly? Only time will tell.

Another assumption we have been making, though not necessarily explicitly stated, is that the Steelers' offense is becoming more of a big play offense rather than one built on ball control. In an effort to determine the validity of that assumption we take a look at the average number of first downs per game, and then just for fun we also looked at rushing first downs and passing first downs, on a per game average over the last nine seasons.

Total first downs, per game average

1. 21.44 (2002)


2. 20.44 (2006)


3. 19.63 (2001)


4. 19.31 (2004)


5. 18.63 (2007)


6. 18.56 (2005)


7. 18.00 (2008)


8. 17.69 (2000)


9. 17.19 (2003)

Superficially at least it appears that our assumption is correct ~ the team is still scoring at or near historical averages, but the number of first downs this season is down significantly. It is also worth keeping in mind that the 2000 edition of the Steelers had a 9-7 record while the team went 6-10 in 2003.

Rushing first downs, per game average

1. 9.25 (2001)


2. 8.38 (2004)


3. 7.69 (2000)


4. 7.50 (2005)


5. 7.44 (2002)


6. 6.75 (2007)


7. 5.50 (2008)


8. 4.81 (2003)

This season's total is the lowest for any Steelers' offense with a winning record in the last nine seasons. The loss of Willie Parker certainly is has to be considered a huge part of this; especially when considering that against Cincinnati (with Mewelde Moore stepping up his performance) the Steelers had nine rushing first downs.

Passing first downs, per game average

1. 12.56 (2006)


2. 12.50 (2002)


3. 11.19 (2007)


4. 10.88 (2003)


5. 10.33 (2008)


6. 9.38 (2001)


7. 9.19 (2004)


8. 9.00 (2005)


9. 8.06 (2000)

More evidence of the big play nature of the 2008 offense is found here ~ with the precipitous drop in rushing first downs one might have expected to see a rise in the number of passing first downs. Instead this season's offense falls in at the middle of the pack, right at the nine year average (10.34).

First downs by penalty, per game average

1. 2.17 (2008)


2. 2.06 (2005)


3. 1.94 (2000)


4. 1.75 (2004)


5. 1.63 (2006)


6. 1.50 (2002)


7. 1.50 (2003)


8. 1.00 (2001)


9. 0.69 (2007)

Finally, this season's offense leads in something!

Next we look at play propensity ~ i.e. the mix of run-to-pass:

Pass attempts, per game average

1. 34.44 (2002)


2. 33.25 (2003)


3. 32.69 (2006)


4. 28.38 (2001)


5. 27.67 (2008)


6. 27.63 (2007)


7. 27.50 (2000)


8. 23.69 (2005)


9. 22.38 (2004)

We were amazed at the consistency of Bruce Arians' two seasons ~ to be within .04 pass attempts over the course of twenty-two regular season games is striking.

Rushing attempts, per game average

1. 38.63 (2004)


2. 36.25 (2001)


3. 34.31 (2005)


4. 32.88 (2000)


5. 32.00 (2002)


6. 31.94 (2007)


7. 29.31 (2006)


8. 28.33 (2008)


9. 27.88 (2003)

Is it any coincidence that the three most successful seasons of the last nine are also the three seasons in which the Steelers' offense ran the ball most often? We think not; and while the loss of Willie Parker certainly altered the play calling this season (and last season), we are concerned that the number of rushing attempts this season is closer to the bottom than the top.

Having begun are analysis with points scored, we end with another type of "deliverable" ~ yards gained.

Net passing yards, per game average

1. 239.50 (2002)


2. 233.31 (2006)


3. 206.50 (2003)


4. 194.56 (2001)


5. 191.94 (2007)


6. 189.50 (2008)


7. 182.88 (2005)


8. 170.00 (2004)


9. 158.94 (2000)

For the most part these numbers are directly related to the number of pass attempts.

Net rushing yards, per game average

1. 173.38 (2001)


2. 154.00 (2004)


3. 139.19 (2000)


4. 138.94 (2005)


5. 135.50 (2007)


6. 132.50 (2002)


7. 124.50 (2006)


8. 109.17 (2008)


9. 93.00 (2003)

The loss of Willie Parker explains a great deal when it comes to the running game, however this season's performance is more than 18% below the historical average (133.35) ~ did we really appreciate averaging 173 yards rushing back in 2001? ~ and is, arguably, more of a reflection of the play of the offensive line. We believe Darnell Stapleton may be a difference maker for that group, so there is hope for the remainder of the season.

So what does it all mean?

Being fans of the Steelers we, naturally, believe that the numbers do not portend good things for the remainder of the season. The offense is relying on big plays, and help from the officials, to a degree not seen before ~ at least during winning seasons. With the Giants, Redskins, Patriots, Ravens, and Cowboys on the schedule it is reasonable to assume that the proficiency of the defenses the Steelers will face is bound to rise, and only a corresponding increase in offensive proficiency will result in success.

New York Giants v. Steelers: The Matchups

Over the course of the previous four seasons (i.e. 2004-2007) the Steelers had a 14-2 record versus the NFC, including a 4-0 record against the NFC East in 2004. However, in the storied histories of the Steelers and Giants it is New York that holds a significant advantage (29-45-3) in wins and losses. Moreover, in the last five meetings between these two teams the Steelers are 2-3 ~ and that does not take into account Tom Couglin's success against the Steelers when he was the head coach at Jacksonville.

How will Pittsburgh fair against the defending Super Bowl champions this weekend? Here is a look at the numbers:

N.Y. Giants Offense v. Steelers Defense
Average total yards per game: N.Y. Giants offense 3rd (395.0) v. Steelers defense 1st (228.3)

Average net rushing yards per game: N.Y. Giants offense 1st (169.7) v. Steelers defense 2nd (69.7)

Average net passing yards per game: N.Y. Giants offense 12th (225.3) v. Steelers defense 1st (158.7)

Average points per game: N.Y. Giants offense 2nd (28.33) v. Steelers defense 2nd (14.83)

Steelers Offense v. N.Y. Giants Defense
Average total yards per game: Steelers offense 24th (298.8) v. N.Y. Giants defense 4th (275.2)

Average net rushing yards per game: Steelers offense 18th (109.3) v. N.Y. Giants defense 5th (84.5)

Average net passing yards per game: Steelers offense 21st (189.5) v. N.Y. Giants defense 11th (190.7)

Average points per game: Steelers offense: 13th (23.5) v. N.Y. Giants defense 6th (16.83)

Special Teams
Average yards per punt return: N.Y. Giants 14th (10.2) v. Steelers 32nd (4.5)

Average yards allowed per punt return: N.Y. Giants 4th (4.9) v. Steelers 3rd (4.1)

Average yards per kick return: N.Y. Giants 26th (20.2) v. Steelers 26th (20.2)

Average yards allowed per kick return: N.Y. Giants 4th (20.1) v. Steelers 6th (20.4)

Net yardage punting average: N.Y. Giants 10th (39.8) v. Steelers 12th (39.3)

Opponent net yardage punting average: N.Y. Giants 25th (37.6) v. Steelers 31st (41.9)

Miscellaneous
Turnover differential: N.Y. Giants 16th (+1) v. Steelers 7th (+4)

Time of possession: N.Y. Giants 3rd (32:39) v. Steelers 19th (30:14)

Red Zone touchdown efficiency (touchdowns): N.Y. Giants 19th (48.0%) v. Steelers 2nd (70.6%)

Red Zone defense (touchdowns): N.Y. Giants 2nd (33.3%) v. Steelers 9th (42.9%)

Sacks allowed: N.Y. Giants 3rd (6) v. Steelers 27th (19)

Some Individual Numbers
NFC Passer rating: Eli Manning, 9th (89.1) v. AFC Passer Rating: Ben Roethlisberger, 3rd (98.1)

NFC Leading rushers: Brandon Jacobs, 6th (516 yards) v. AFC Leading Rushers: Willie Parker, 15th (263 yards)
Note: Mewelde Moore is 20th in the AFC in rushing with 238 yards

NFC Leading receivers: Steve Smith, 20th (26 catches, 254 yards, 9.8 per catch, 0 touchdowns) v. AFC Leading Receivers: Hines Ward, 12th (28 catches, 376 yards, 13.4 yards per catch, 5 touchdowns)
Note: Plaxico Burress is 24th in receptions (25) and has five touchdown receptions.

NFC sack leaders: Justin Tuck (DE) & Fred Robbins (DT), 6th (5.0 sacks each) v. AFC sack leaders: James Harrison, 1st (8.5)
Note: LaMarr Woodley is third in the AFC in sacks with 7.5

Steelers @ Cincinnati: The Good, the Bad, & the Ugly

Standing firm in our belief that late is better than never (having a real job can disrupt one's blogging routine enormously), we offer our assessment of the Steelers' victory last Sunday.

The Good

1. There can be no doubt about what the best thing about last Sunday's game was ~ Mewelde Moore. We mentioned after the Jacksonville game that if he could keep up his good play he might be a free agent signing on par with James Farrior and Jeff Hartings. Two consecutive good games does not a career make, but 120 yards on 20 carries, and two touchdowns does a great deal to elevate opinions about your skills.


2. The offensive line did a good job on Sunday ~ Mr. Mewelde's rushing totals are evidence of that, as is the fact that Ben Roethlisberger went an entire game without being sacked (the first time that has happened since December 2, 2007 when the Steelers faced . . . Cincinnati). However our enthusiasm for the performance is tempered somewhat by the fact that Cincinnati's defense has held an opponent to fewer than 100 yards rushing once this season (the Jets gained 86 yards) and has sacked opposition quarterbacks five times. But there's no sense in being negative ~ the Steelers offensive line went against an inferior opponent and managed to perform well enough to win


3. A little shout-out for Darnell Stapleton! We love the smart, physical brand of football he is playing. Time will tell whether or not he can continue to perform at this level (next Sunday versus the Giants defensive front should tell us plenty), but it has been a promising start.

The Bad

1. What happened to the Steelers offense in the second and third quarters? The Steelers offense netted ninety-five yards of total offense on twenty-two plays (an average of 4.32 yards per play) in the middle two stanzas of the game, compared to 300 yards on 37 plays (8.11 yards per play) in quarters one and four. It was during that same stretch ~ i.e. the middle two quarters ~ that the Bengals had their best stretch of play, and made what should have been (and eventually became) a blowout a tightly contested match. More disturbing was that the Pittsburgh offense seemed, during that stretch, to be completely befuddled by Cincinnati's defense ~ a notion seemingly too ridiculous to be believed, but the numbers never lie, right? It can certainly be argued that the Steelers' offense wore down the defense of the Bengals, however more consistent play throughout each game is the hallmark of elite teams.

The Ugly

1. Bryant McFadden out with a broken forearm.
   
   Troy Polamalu with a concussion.
   
   The injury bug continues to bite the Steelers, virtually unabated. With games against the NFC East over the next two weeks the backups are certain to be tested dearly.

Steelers @ Cincinnati:The Weekly Matchups

The Steelers roll into the Queen City off their bye week, and are going against an opponent that (statistically) is inferior. Should be a walk in the park, shouldn't it?

Forgive us if we are less than certain.

The Bengals have improved their play over the last two weeks, giving Dallas all they could handle (in Dallas) before losing 31-22 and eking out a loss last week versus the Jets. Additionally, this is exactly the type of game in which the Steelers have, historically, struggled.

Here's a look at this week's numbers:

Cincinnati Offense v. Steelers Defense
Average total yards per game: Cincinnati offense 31st (227.8) v. Steelers defense 2nd (231.6 )

Average net rushing yards per game: Cincinnati offense 31st (72.2) v. Steelers defense 2nd (66.8)

Average net passing yards per game: Cincinnati offense 26th (155.7) v. Steelers defense 4th (164.8)

Average points per game: Cincinnati offense 29th (14.67) v. Steelers defense 3rd (15.8)

Steelers Offense v. Cincinnati Defense
Average total yards per game: Steelers offense 26th (283.6) v. Cincinnati defense 17th (324.2)

Average net rushing yards per game: Steelers offense 20th (106.2) v. Cincinnati defense 28th (156.8)

Average net passing yards per game: Steelers offense 23rd (177.4) v. Cincinnati defense 5th (167.3)

Average points per game: Steelers offense: 21st (20.6) v. Cincinnati defense 21st (24.0)

Special Teams
Average yards per punt return: Cincinnati 17th (10.1) v. Steelers 32nd (3.8)

Average yards allowed per punt return: Cincinnati 21st (10.6) v. Steelers 2nd (4.5)

Average yards per kick return: Cincinnati 5th (26.6) v. Steelers 31st (18.5)

Average yards allowed per kick return: Cincinnati 23rd (24.2) v. Steelers 5th (20.1)

Net yardage punting average: Cincinnati 30th (34.2) v. Steelers 9th (40.0)

Opponent net yardage punting average: Cincinnati 21st (38.5) v. Steelers 32nd (43.9)

Miscellaneous
Turnover differential: Cincinnati 23rd (-2) v. Steelers 8th (+3)

Time of possession: Cincinnati 31st (26:41) v. Steelers 19th (30:10)

Red Zone touchdown efficiency (touchdowns): Cincinnati 17th (50.0%) v. Steelers 5th (66.7%)

Red Zone defense (touchdowns): Cincinnati 18th (52.4%) v. Steelers 10th (41.7%)

Sacks allowed: Cincinnati 28th (19) v. Steelers 28th (19)

Some Individual Numbers
AFC Passer rating: Ryan Fitzpatrick, 15th (57.7) v. Ben Roethlisberger, 4th (95.7)

Leading rushers: Chris Perry, 13th (253 yards) v. Willie Parker, 12th (263 yards)

Note: The Steelers leading rusher, Willie Parker, is out. Their second leading rusher, Rashard Mendenhall, is out. Their third leading rusher is Mewelde Moore who has 118 yards.

Leading receivers: T.J. Houshmandzadeh, 2nd (38 catches, 400 yards, 10.5 per catch, 3 touchdowns) v. Hines Ward, 12th (24 catches, 316 yards, 13.2 yards per catch, 4 touchdowns)

The Ultimate Spread Offense

Forget the run-and-shoot, the A-11 is the harbinger of things to come in offensive philosophy. Any offense that features one offensive lineman, two quarterbacks, and a host of potential receivers is something that has to get the attention of the NFL.

In a story that begins on its front page (in the print edition that is), the New York Times brings us the story of Piedmont High School's wacky offensive scheming and the controversy it has engendered with football purists.

And evidence is emerging that the A-11 is something of a California phenomena.

Steelers @ Jacksonville: The Good,the Bad Better, & the Ugly Best

Every once-in-awhile a performance comes along that does not fit into an existing framework. Such was Sunday's win by the Steelers. Though far from perfect, the team, considering the quality of the opponent, played its best game of this season. So as we head to the bye week in a celebratory mood, we give you the very first "good, better and best."

To begin, we alerted you to an Xbox 360 simulation that predicted a Steelers' loss; and while it had the final score wrong (thankfully) it was pretty close in some other respects. Here as look at some of the numbers:

	Simulation	Actual	Variance
Total Offense - PIT	409	415	6
Total Offense - JAC	276	213	-63
Rushing Yds - PIT	49	129	80
Rushing Yds - JAC	81	38	43
Pass Yds - PIT	360	286	-74
Pass Yds - JAC	195	175	-20
1st downs - PIT	22	28	6
1st downs - JAC	13	14	1
Points - PIT	17	26	9
Points - JAC	24	21	-3

Basking in the warm afterglow of a what was arguably the Steelers' best performance this season we offer up some of our impressions of just what happened.

The Good

1. Going up against a banged-up offensive line the Steelers defense showed no mercy ~ the Jaguars' dynamic duo of Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew was limited to 26 yards on 15 carries. To provide a bit of perspective less than a year ago ~ on December 16, 2007 ~ those same two combined for 247 yards on 37 carries. However the Steelers defense seemed to have learned their lesson because in the two most recent games between these two teams (i.e. 1/5/2008 in the Wild Card game and Sunday evening) they have rushed for only 92 yards on 50 carries.
   
   The Steelers' defense also seems to have figured out how to contain David Garrard ~ force him to throw the football. In the aforementioned Wild Card game Mr. Garrard had 58 yards on 5 carries (including the back-breaking 32-yard scramble on fourth down late in the game) while throwing for 140 yards on 9-for-21 passing ~ and still Jacksonville scored 31 points (thanks in part to Rashean Mathis). Sunday night Mr. Garrard was limited to 12 rushing yards, forced to throw the ball 32 times, and the Jaguars could only muster 21 points (thanks in part to Rashean Mathis). So in addition to the intense pressure that the Steelers front was able to generate throughout the game (despite the fact that James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley were held constantly) they were also able to contain the extremely mobile Mr. Garrard.
   
   While the outstanding performance of the defense was very much a team effort, particular attention must be given to Aaron Smith whose ability to trip up Mr. Garrard, limiting him to a two yard gain (despite a great deal of open ground in front of him), on 1st-and-10 with less than a minute to play, set up the next play on which James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley converged on the Jaguars' quarterback in the backfield, stripped the football away, and forced Jacksonville to use their final timeout. To top-off an outstanding evening it was Mr. Smith who swatted away Mr. Garrard's pass on 4th-and-14, thereby ending the Jaguars' comeback attempt.


2. Mewelde Moore is the best Steelers free agent signing since Jeff Hartings ~ at least this week. His ninety-nine yards rushing (46 in the first half, 53 in the second) was the difference maker in this game. He showed tremendous field vision, a great first step, and far exceeded our expectations. We don't know if he could pull it off a second time (though with Cincinnati coming up following the bye week we would like to see him try), but once was certainly great.

The Better

1. Battered and beleaguered, the offensive line ~ even after the loss of Marvel Smith ~ was better than anyone could have expected. We watched the right side of the offensive line (i.e. Darnell Stapleton and Willie Colon) very closely and were impressed by its consistently good play. In fact, it was our impression that the majority of the pressure that Ben Roethlisberger felt came almost exclusively from the left side of the line. Yes Mr. Roethlisberger was banged around, especially in the second half, but most of that pressure was the result of excellent coverage by the Jacksonville secondary not poor blocking. The three replacement linemen ~ Colon, Essex, and Stapleton ~ performed capably, and this group had its best performance in weeks.


2. Nobody deserves the bye week more than Ben Roethlisberger, and his performance Sunday night is one that we will remember for some time. Thanks to a good job by the offensive line Mr. Roethlisberger had time 'o plenty to throw (as witnessed by the pump fake on Nate Washington's double-move, touchdown reception), and his ability to manage the no-huddle offense (i.e. the improvement in play that occurs when the Steelers' offense employs the no-huddle) has been impressive. While our love of the running game means that we would like to see fewer passes (the 41 attempts in Sunday's game was his highest number of attempts in a game), there's also little doubt that as one of the league's elite quarterbacks Mr. Roethlisberger is more than capable of carrying the load.


3. We hammered Bruce Arians last week, but this week we come to praise him for a pitch-perfect game plan. Anticipating the blitz that came early in the game, Mr. Arians looked to quick passes and an effective running game. Additionally, allowing Ben Roethlisberger to go no-huddle early wore down the Jacksonville defense. There's no doubt that the Steelers offensive coordinator still struggles in responding to the changing tactics of the opposition (i.e. when Jacksonville largely discontinued the blitz in the second half the Steelers' offense began to struggle ~ after 300 total yards in the first half they 115 yards in the second), but his original game plan was a winner.

The Best

1. His team more ravaged by injury than any other Steelers team we can remember, Mike Tomlin refused not only use that as an excuse for poor performance, but refused to believe that it was even a factor to be considered. He may not have convinced us before the game but he convinced his players, and all of the backups . . . and backups of backups (e.g. Scott Paxson and Darnell Stapleton) performed well. The Sunday night performance simply would not have been possible if not for the mental and emotional strength of Mr. Tomlin.

The Tip of the Iceberg

We like to think of ourselves as pretty well-read, up on current events however we completely missed one of the most important media reports to be published in quite awhile.

In the online weekend edition of the Wall Street Journal writer Allen Barra asks, and attempts to answer the rhetorical question "where's the outrage over steroid use in the NFL?.

Mr. Barra's piece is based upon an expose by the San Diego Union-Tribune that lists 185 players, including 52 who are in the Pro Football Hall of Fame, "linked to the use of performance-enhancing substances." Every NFL team is represented including more than a few Pittsburgh Steelers. For an interactive look at the list, by team, as well as links to other resources click here.

Thursday's Injury Report

The Steelers' portion of the NFL injury report looks as ugly as one would probably expect, given all that has happened the past couple of weeks:

"Practice Report

OUT (DEFINITELY WILL NOT PLAY)

Wednesday

DT Casey Hampton (groin), DE Brett Keisel (calf), RB Willie Parker (knee)

Thursday


DT Casey Hampton (groin), DE Brett Keisel (calf), RB Willie Parker (knee)


DID NOT PARTICIPATE IN PRACTICE

Wednesday

LB Patrick Bailey (hamstring), RB Carey Davis (ankle), DE Nick Eason (groin), LB Keyaron Fox (back), LB Andre Frazier (concussion), LB James Harrison (quadricep), S Troy Polamalu (quadricep), QB Ben Roethlisberger (right shoulder), T Marvel Smith (not injury related), WR Hines Ward (not injury related)

Thursday

LB Patrick Bailey (hamstring), RB Carey Davis (ankle), DE Nick Eason (groin), QB Ben Roethlisberger (right shoulder)


LIMITED PARTICIPATION IN PRACTICE

Wednesday

WR Santonio Holmes (neck)

Thursday

LB Andre Frazier (concussion), LB James Harrison (quadricep)


FULL PARTICIPATION IN PRACTICE

Thursday

LB Keyaron Fox (back), WR Santonio Holmes (neck), S Troy Polamalu (quadricep)"

If there is any good news contained in that report it is that Andre Frazier is practicing despite what is now being called a concussion ~ what happened to the spinal injury? ~ and that the list of players not participating in practice was appreciably shorter on Thursday than on Wednesday.

But the bad news is that Ben Roethlisberger was unable to practice on Wednesday and Thursday; and it seems to us that Mr. Roethlisberger is the only thing separating the Steelers and say, oh, the Detroit Lions. The situation is only made worse by the fact that Byron Leftwich has not shown anything that would give the Steelers or their fans any confidence in his ability to step-in.

Game Simulation Predicts Steelers Loss

We are always interested in the predictions others have for the Steelers (our own efforts predicting the future having proved so miserable), especially video game simulations!

The website BetUS.com has revealed the results of their Xbox 360 simulation and the news is not good.

Interestingly their simulation has the Steelers winning the time of possession and total offense battles, but losing the turnover battle in a big way.

We'll provide a comparison between the simulation and the real thing iin next week's "Good, Bad, & Ugly."

Steelers @ Jacksonville: The Matchups

Sunday evening may be a study in frustration.

To say that the Pittsburgh has always struggled against the Jaguars is something of an understatement: Their overall record in games played at Jacksonville since the Jaguars entered the league is 3-7; and in their last five meetings overall(including the playoffs) the Steelers are 1-4.

In those five most recent games the Steelers' quarterback (i.e. Tommy Maddox and Ben Roethlisberger) has been sacked sixteen times, including eleven time in two games last season.

And, as noted below, Ben Roethlisberger enters this game as the Steelers leading, active rusher this season with 26 yards.

Lovely.

With expectations properly lowered we offer this week's peek at the numbers:

Jacksonville Offense v. Steelers Defense
Average total yards per game: Jacksonville offense 24th (302.5) v. Steelers defense 2nd (236.3 )

Average net rushing yards per game: Jacksonville offense 12th (126.5) v. Steelers defense 4th (74.0)

Average net passing yards per game: Jacksonville offense 20th (176.0) v. Steelers defense 9th (162.3)

Average points per game: Jacksonville offense 21st(19.75) v. Steelers defense 3rd (12.67)

Steelers Offense v. Jacksonville Defense
Average total yards per game: Steelers offense 29th (250.8) v. Jacksonville defense 18th (326.3)

Average net rushing yards per game: Steelers offense 21st (100.5) v. Jacksonville defense 14th (101.3)

Average net passing yards per game: Steelers offense 28th (150.3) v. Jacksonville defense 24th (225.0)

Average points per game: Steelers offense: 20th (19.25) v. Jacksonville defense 15th (21.25)

Special Teams
Average yards per punt return: Jacksonville 5th (14.0) v. Steelers 32nd (3.4)

Average yards allowed per punt return: Jacksonville 21st (9.5) v. Steelers 3rd (5.2)

Average yards per kick return: Jacksonville 7th (25.6) v. Steelers 29th (19.0)

Average yards allowed per kick return: Jacksonville 1st (16.9) v. Steelers 5th (19.4)

Net yardage punting average: Jacksonville 26th (35.5) v. Steelers 10th (39.2)

Opponent net yardage punting average: Jacksonville 5th (34.2) v. Steelers 32nd (44.9)

Miscellaneous
Turnover differential: Jacksonville 17th (0) v. Steelers 2nd (+4)

Time of possession: Jacksonville 2nd (32:47) v. Steelers 23rd (29:21)

Red Zone touchdown efficiency (touchdowns): Jacksonville 29th (35.7%) v. Steelers 3rd (66.7%)

Red Zone defense (touchdowns): Jacksonville 31st (75.0%) v. Steelers 15th (44.4%)

Sacks allowed: Jacksonville 19th (10) v. Steelers 31st (16)

Some Individual Numbers
AFC Passer rating: David Garrard, 10th (77.7) v. Ben Roethlisberger, 6th (93.4)

Leading rushers: Fred Taylor, 10th (213 yards) v. Willie Parker, 6th (243 yards)

Note: The Steelers leading rusher, Willie Parker, is out. Their second leading rusher, Rashard Mendenhall, is out. Their third leading rusher is Ben Roethlisberger who has 26 yards.

Leading receivers: Matt Jones, 5th (20 catches, 233 yards, 11.7 per catch, 1 touchdowns) v. Hines Ward, 18th (17 catches, 226 yards, 13.3 yards per catch, 3 touchdowns)