Sunday, October 16, 2011

Jacksonville vs. Steelers: Instant Analysis, fourth quarter

Offense:  Two steps forward, one step back.  This unit was completely shutdown by the Jacksonville defense, managing to get one first down the entire quarter.  Ben Roethlisberger did not complete a pass, fumbled once,  and was sacked twice.  Meanwhile, running backs combined for 25 yards on seven carries.

Defense:  After giving up a big third quarter drive, the defense got their act together in the fourth quarter, giving up three points (in the aftermath of Daniel Speulveda's horrible punt) and three first downs.  The Brett Keisel sack on first down of Jacksonville's final possession was a  big play.

Special Teams:  Damiel Sepulveda had two punts in the quarter, one for 55 yards and the other for an unbelievable 23 yards.  His 39-yard net average was actually one yard better than his net average for the game overall.

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Jacksonville vs. Steelers: Instant Analysis, third quarter

Pathetic.

Just when you think the Steelers have figured things out, and are ready to begin playing at the level they achieved last season we see a horrible fifteen minutes of football that was the third quarter.

Offense:  Six offensive plays for 3 yards, and one first down.  Not exactly what one would call "setting the tone."

Defense:  Worse than pathetic.  An 18 play drive for a touchdown?  Maurice Jones-Drew is a phenomenal running back, but to allow the Jaguars to seize control of the game that way . . . we started having flashbacks to Baltimore and Houston.

Special teams:  Ryan Mundy is a fine player, but what a horrible penalty.  And Daniel Sepulveda's net punting average of 39 yards didn't help matters.

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Jacksonville vs. Steelers: Instant Analysis, second quarter

Offense:  The quarter seemed decent enough ~ ten points ~ but a missed opportunity to score a touchdown following Rashard Mendenhall's 68-yard scamper left us feeling less than satisfied, and less in control of the game, than should be the case.

Defense:  A horrible performance on one drive allowed Jacksonville to get to within hailing distance of the Steelers.  The second half of the second half was good enough ~ and LaMarr Woodley is playing well ~ but here's hoping that this unit comes out breathing fire in the second half.

Special teams:  Shaun Suisham has already missed too many field goals this season.  Kevin Colbert may want to begin flipping idly through his rolodex of kicker's phone numbers.  Also, Antonio Brown's three punt returns for -4 yards total leaves us feeling less than satisfied.

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Jacksonville vs. Steelers: Instant Analysis, first quarter

Offense:  124 total yards (55 on the ground), six first downs, and a 7-0 lead all add up to a solid start.  The short to mid-range passing game seems to be a huge assist to what is a fairly porous offensive line.

Defense:  Two sacks, and 32 total yards surrendered.  Is the defense back, or is this good work against an inexperienced opponent?

Special teams:  No news is good news; but the 32-yard return following the Steelers' first touchdown is a cause for concern.

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Wednesday, October 01, 2008

Game Simulation Predicts Steelers Loss

We are always interested in the predictions others have for the Steelers (our own efforts predicting the future having proved so miserable), especially video game simulations!

The website BetUS.com has revealed the results of their Xbox 360 simulation and the news is not good.

Interestingly their simulation has the Steelers winning the time of possession and total offense battles, but losing the turnover battle in a big way.

We'll provide a comparison between the simulation and the real thing iin next week's "Good, Bad, & Ugly."

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Steelers @ Jacksonville: The Matchups

Sunday evening may be a study in frustration.

To say that the Pittsburgh has always struggled against the Jaguars is something of an understatement: Their overall record in games played at Jacksonville since the Jaguars entered the league is 3-7; and in their last five meetings overall(including the playoffs) the Steelers are 1-4.

In those five most recent games the Steelers' quarterback (i.e. Tommy Maddox and Ben Roethlisberger) has been sacked sixteen times, including eleven time in two games last season.

And, as noted below, Ben Roethlisberger enters this game as the Steelers leading, active rusher this season with 26 yards.

Lovely.

With expectations properly lowered we offer this week's peek at the numbers:

Jacksonville Offense v. Steelers Defense
Average total yards per game: Jacksonville offense 24th (302.5) v. Steelers defense 2nd (236.3 )

Average net rushing yards per game: Jacksonville offense 12th (126.5) v. Steelers defense 4th (74.0)

Average net passing yards per game: Jacksonville offense 20th (176.0) v. Steelers defense 9th (162.3)

Average points per game: Jacksonville offense 21st(19.75) v. Steelers defense 3rd (12.67)

Steelers Offense v. Jacksonville Defense
Average total yards per game: Steelers offense 29th (250.8) v. Jacksonville defense 18th (326.3)

Average net rushing yards per game: Steelers offense 21st (100.5) v. Jacksonville defense 14th (101.3)

Average net passing yards per game: Steelers offense 28th (150.3) v. Jacksonville defense 24th (225.0)

Average points per game: Steelers offense: 20th (19.25) v. Jacksonville defense 15th (21.25)

Special Teams
Average yards per punt return: Jacksonville 5th (14.0) v. Steelers 32nd (3.4)

Average yards allowed per punt return: Jacksonville 21st (9.5) v. Steelers 3rd (5.2)

Average yards per kick return: Jacksonville 7th (25.6) v. Steelers 29th (19.0)

Average yards allowed per kick return: Jacksonville 1st (16.9) v. Steelers 5th (19.4)

Net yardage punting average: Jacksonville 26th (35.5) v. Steelers 10th (39.2)

Opponent net yardage punting average: Jacksonville 5th (34.2) v. Steelers 32nd (44.9)

Miscellaneous
Turnover differential: Jacksonville 17th (0) v. Steelers 2nd (+4)

Time of possession: Jacksonville 2nd (32:47) v. Steelers 23rd (29:21)

Red Zone touchdown efficiency (touchdowns): Jacksonville 29th (35.7%) v. Steelers 3rd (66.7%)

Red Zone defense (touchdowns): Jacksonville 31st (75.0%) v. Steelers 15th (44.4%)

Sacks allowed: Jacksonville 19th (10) v. Steelers 31st (16)

Some Individual Numbers
AFC Passer rating: David Garrard, 10th (77.7) v. Ben Roethlisberger, 6th (93.4)

Leading rushers: Fred Taylor, 10th (213 yards) v. Willie Parker, 6th (243 yards)

Note: The Steelers leading rusher, Willie Parker, is out. Their second leading rusher, Rashard Mendenhall, is out. Their third leading rusher is Ben Roethlisberger who has 26 yards.

Leading receivers: Matt Jones, 5th (20 catches, 233 yards, 11.7 per catch, 1 touchdowns) v. Hines Ward, 18th (17 catches, 226 yards, 13.3 yards per catch, 3 touchdowns)

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Tuesday, September 09, 2008

Future Opponents, Dramtic Stories

Tuesday was an unusually busy day of dramatic stories involving some players on NFL team whom the Steelers will be facing later this season. We offer up links for your convenience:

Jaguars: Jacksonville police now believe that jags' offensive lineman Richard Collier was targeted by his attackers when he was shot on September 2nd.

Chargers: Shawne Merriman, whose decision to not have knee surgery caused some much conversation over the summer, is now having knee surgery, and is out for the remainder of the season.

Patriots: Carson Palmer's surgeon says Tom Brady will be back sooner than you think.

Titans: Nashville police say they found a gun in Vince Young's car ~ but that it wasn't loaded.

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News on Upcoming Opponents

We love Pro Football Talk, so it was only a matter of time that we ripped-off emulated their "Morning One-liners" format. So, in an effort to keep you informed on the Steelers' next three opponents we offer up some comments and links.

Cleveland: In the immediate aftermath of their debacle versus the Cowboys, the Browns turned their attention to next Sunday night's visit by the Steelers.

Baltimore: The listless, uninspired performance of the Bengals defense is really the story coming out of last week's game between the Ravens and Bengals; however Joe Flacco is 1-0 as an NFL starter and has some people dreaming of a bright future.

Jacksonville: As if the loss in Tennessee wasn't enough, the Jags are in bad shape along the offensive line. On an entirely different topic, one has to wonder what it will take to get Jags fans excited about their team.

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Monday, January 14, 2008

The Referees: Our Opinion --
Our Final Word

Update: 1/14/08 1:00AM EST
The entire discussion -- both amongst fans and Pittsburgh media -- as to the quality of the officiating in the Jacksonville v. Steelers game has, for the most part, concluded. But like any powerful entity the National Football League has insisted on having the final word.

Officials are chosen to work the playoffs based on merit -- i.e. those who performed most capably during the regular season were selected for the Wild Card weekend, and those who were judged to have performed most capably that weekend moved on to the Divisional round -- and as it turns out every one of the officials who worked playoff game between the Jaguars and Steelers moved up to the Divisional Round. In fact, the entire crew for that game, except for Back Judge Bill Schmitz, stayed together and officiated the game between San Diego and Indianapolis (Mr. Schmitz worked the game between Seattle and Green Bay).

We're sure it's just a coincidence that in both games that Gerry Austin was the referee the visiting teams were victorious.

Update: 2:00AM EST
It seems as though some of the Steelers' players are not as willing as we were to look beyond some missed calls. The following is an excerpt from an item in Monday's Pittsburgh Post-Gazette:

"Penalties were kept to a relative few Saturday night, but apparently that's what bothered some Steelers the most -- too few penalties.

The Jaguars had six penalties for 40 yards and the Steelers five for 50.

Linebacker Larry Foote intimated that a huge hole in the Steelers' defense that quarterback David Garrard ran through for 32 yards on fourth down to set up Jacksonville's winning field goal came about for reasons other than good blocking.

Foote complained to officials on the field and it was the only topic he broached briefly in the locker room before leaving.

'You'll see a big old hole open up, and you'll see the reason why. That's all I've got to say. Thank you.'

Steelers linebackers were upset by what they felt were non-calls, particularly holding by the Jaguars.

'I'm the wrong person to interview,' Clark Haggans said. 'You might want to interview the referees. Plain and simple, that's it. I don't have anything else to say besides that.'

Said James Harrison, 'I have nothing to say about that. I ain't got no fine money to give away for talking about them blind refs, so I got nothing to say'
."


Original Post
We've encountered some Steelers fans who have complained bitterly about the officiating in the Jacksonville game; and we must admit to having been tempted to including a discussion about this issue in our post-game wrap.

Sean Mahan holding on the two point conversion attempt? It really didn't look that way. However, James Harrison was held on very nearly every passing play, and on David Garrard's 32-yard, fourth quarter run both Mr. Harrison and Troy Polamalu were held.

Frankly, Hines Ward did have his hands in the face mask of Brian Williams -- illustrating the point that penalties are in the eyes of the beholder.

However, the referees had nothing to do with Ben Roethlisberger throwing three interceptions.

The referees had nothing to do with the Steelers not getting a first down with less than three minutes to play in the game, and in the lead.

The referees had nothing to do with a 16-yard punt return by Dennis Northcutt, thereby allowing the Jaguars to begin their winning drive from their own 49-yard line.

There isn't a game in the NFL where penalties couldn't be called more often, and while it can be argued that the failure to make certain calls had an impact on a particular play the reason the Steelers lost has to do with the plays that they made (Ben Roethlisberger's interceptions) and didn't make (not covering a kickoff well enough to keep Maurice Jones-Drew from breaking off a 96-yard return).

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Wednesday, January 09, 2008

A Quick & Dirty Preview of
Games We Don't Care About

Oddly enough there are still teams playing NFL games.

For those who want to know who will win those games -- and why would you -- here's a look at the yards per catch and giveaway/takeaway ratios (a "system" Pat Kirwan mentioned on Sirus radio's Movin' the Chains Inside the Red Zone) for the teams still in the NFL playoffs.

Seattle @ Green Bay
Giveaway/Takeaway: Seattle +10, Green Bay +4
Yards per Catch: Seattle 7.1, Green Bay 7.7

Looks like a nail-biter

Jacksonville @ New England
Giveaway/Takeaway: Jacksonville +9, New England +16
Yards per Catch: Jacksonville 7.5, New England 8.3

New England for the win, but by 13?

San Diego @ Indianapolis
Giveaway/Takeaway: San Diego +24, Indianapolis +18
Yards per Catch: San Diego 6.7, Indianapolis 7.6

These two teams are #1 (Chargers) & #2 (Colts) in takeaways. Looks like a close one as well.

N.Y. Giants @ Dallas
Giveaway/Takeaway: N.Y. Giants -9, Dallas +5
Yards per Catch: N.Y. Giants 6.2, Dallas 8.1

Looks like a blowout in the making

One final comment. One motivation for watching these games is this: Except for Green Bay and Seattle the Steelers will be playing all of these teams next season.

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Sunday, January 06, 2008

Jacksonville V. Steelers: The Good, the Bad
& The Ugly -- the Wild Card Edition

Wow.

We are e-x-h-a-u-s-t-e-d.

Imagine how the players must feel.

It was an amazing game, and our knee-jerk reaction following the game was to be disappointed at the final score while simultaneously being quite proud of how the Pittsburgh Steelers fought back from as much adversity as a team can encounter on the field of play.

But upon further reflection we must, as we believe the Steelers' players, coaches, and fans must, reject moral victories. The franchise is a great one because of the championships it has won not because the teams have played horribly in one half and played splendidly in the next. The National Football League -- and in particular the playoffs -- is a zero sum game. The Steelers lost, and looking for something to feel good about only delays (and possibly detracts from) the critical self-analysis that must now begin if the team hopes to get back to being a legitimate championship contender.

After a crazy, mixed up game, like the one we witnessed Saturday night there is no way to categorize the game into "Good," "Bad," and "Ugly." The Steelers were all of those things -- sometimes at the same time. Here's some of what we mean:

Ben Roethlisberger : During the first half, just for a moment, we thought we were watching Super Bowl XL. A quarterback rating of 47.8? Three interceptions? Even if the first one is credited to aggressive play by Rashean Mathis (it was a high risk, high reward play which worked out for him and the Jaguars) the two that followed were . . . mind-boggling in their carelessness (and the final one cost the Steelers an opportunity to kick a field goal).

But then there was the second half. Two touchdowns, 188 yards, 17/23 and a 126.72 quarterback rating. He led his team, he willed his team down the field -- taking advantage of the turnovers forced by the defense -- and brought them back to the brink of victory.

The Offensive Line : With 3:43 left in the game the Steelers had the football and a one point lead. Frankly, they were twenty yards -- two first downs -- away from sealing the win. There was a time, a season or two ago, the Steelers could have run out the clock by keeping the ball on the ground, and getting the necessary yardage. The 2007 edition of the Steelers' offensive line managed to lead the team down the field -- for five yards. From that point, the rest is history. Moreover, the 43 yards of rushing that the Steelers accumulated (13 of which came from Ben Roethlisberger) Saturday is their lowest total in the playoffs since rushing for 58 yards in the AFC Championship game against new England on January 27, 2002 in that game Kordell Stewart was the Steelers' leading rusher).

We do want to send some praise the way of Trai Essex. We watched him intently all evening (and then watched the game again via the miracle of Tivo), and must say that he exceeded our expectations by a considerable margin. Additionally, it did not appear that the Steelers modified their playbook appreciably to "protect" Mr. Essex. There were runs to the left, there were QB roll-outs to the left, and until the Steelers' final offensive play of the evening Mr. Essex hadn't been beaten on a pass rush (it should be pointed out that there was almost always a running back helping Mr. Essex in pass protection, but that probably should have been the case when these two teams played the first time this season), and on that play Najeh Davenport didn't exactly do much to lend a hand (i.e. he whiffed on the block). Overall Mr. Essex did well, better than anyone had a right to expect from a third string tackle.

The Defense : Faced with bad field position throughout much of the first half -- Jacksonville's average drive began at their 46-yard line -- the defense limited Jacksonville to 14 points (and let's be fair -- the kick return by Maurice Jones-Drew left them in an impossible position). In the second half the Steelers' defense forced turnovers, and played the physical brand of football that their fans have come to love and expect. They limited the Jaguars to 239 net yards, and held Fred Taylor and Mr. Jones-Drew to a combined 77 yards. But at the end of the game, when they needed to make a play in order to secure victory, David Garrard rumbled for 32 yards thereby ensuring that the Jaguars would have an opportunity to kick a makeable field goal.

No one can question the effort or the intensity of the Steelers' defense. But in the end all that can be said is that they almost played like champions.

[Note added 1/6/08, 5:20 PM: It should be noted how thrilled we were to see LaMarr Woodley making impact plays. The solid performances of Mr. Woodley, Matt Spaeth, and Daniel Sepulveda is making the 2007 draft look solid]

Special Teams : Following the final Steelers win of the season (i.e. the game in St. Louis), in discussing the kick coverage team here is what we said: "If the Steelers are fortunate enough to make the playoffs this glaring weakness will cost them points -- count on it."

Did you doubt us?

And yet the special teams responded. Following the 96-yard return by Maurice Jones-Drew the Jaguars had five more kick returns, and they managed to rack-up a total of 44 yards (i.e. 8.8 yards per kick return). The pooch kick is an amazing thing. On those five kicks we saw speed -- something sorely lacking in games,and years past, on Pittsburgh's special teams.

The punt coverage team was similarly up-and-down. Dennis Northcutt returned three punts Saturday evening. On the first two he managed to get 15 total yards. Again, the speed of the Steelers' coverage unit was terrific. But then, with the offense having failed to get a first down late in the game, deep in their own territory, Mr. Northcutt broke loose for a 16-yard return, enabling the Jaguars' offense to begin their winning drive near midfield.


Conclusion : If we were to identify the turning point in what was a see-saw affair it would have to be the Steelers' fourth quarter possession that began with 3:43 left in the game. With momentum on the Steelers' side, and a one point lead, here's what happened:
  • The Jaguars' defense beat the Steelers' offense, forcing a punt.

  • The Jaguars' punt return team beat the Steelers' punt coverage team, setting up the Jags' offense at their 49-yard line.

  • The Jaguars' offense made enough plays -- including the 31-yard run by David Garrard on fourth-and-two -- to kick the field goal that put them ahead.

  • The Jaguars' defense stomped out any hope of a miraculous Steelers' comeback by beating the left offensive tackle and stripping the ball away from the quarterback.
Late in the game, with a chance to win, the Steelers were dominated in every phase of the game. It's hard to find anything to feel good about in that.

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Friday, January 04, 2008

Jacksonville's Top Ten

Generally speaking, Pittsburgh Steelers Fanatic doesn't get caught up in individual/one-on-one matchups as it relates to the outcome of a game. Unlike baseball, football is actually a team game with component parts (i.e. players) working hand-in-hand to create conditions that enhance the likelihood of winning. So, rather than "player X has to beat player Y," we tend to focus on fundamentals (e.g. turnovers, line surge, "gap integrity" -- a phrase that is new to us, and which we love!). In that spirit we offer up the ten things that the Jaguars have to do to beat the Steelers, as presented at Jaguars.com; and it's presented here because most of these ten things are also important to a Steelers win as well.

1. Hold onto the ball—One interception nearly cost the Jaguars the last game. Ball security is job one.

2. Rush the passer—It’s likely to be all Ben all the time, and that puts a premium on the pass-rush.

3. Run the ball—The Steelers will load up against it. If the Jaguars are able to run with any semblance of the success they had against the Steelers on Dec. 16, the Jaguars could win comfortably. Note: This is THE KEY to the game for the Steelers. In an interview on NFL Radio on Thursday, the Steelers "have to control the clock . . . and keep the [Jacksonville] defense on the field." In the first half of their first meeting Jacksonville led at the half 10-7, and rushed for 98 yards. As bad as that was, Jacksonville came out with their first possession of the second half and reeled-off a 74 yard, 20 play drive that featured 41 yards of rushing.

4. Play with poise—The Steelers are a playoff-experienced team. The Jaguars are not. Poise in the playoffs is critical. The Jaguars have to find it early in this game.

5. Get a lead—It would keep the Steelers from gaining momentum.

6. Win the QB battle—The team that does usually wins, and that’s especially true in the playoffs. Postseason performance is the true mark of a quarterback. Note: Ben Roethlisberger is the better of the two quarterbacks, but the patchwork offensive line responsible for protecting him isn't anywhere as good as Jacksonville's (see item #2). If Mr. Roethlisberger can remain upright throughout the day the Steelers have a chance.

7. Be special—Jaguars special teams played horribly in the last meeting between the two teams. The Steelers have had major problems on special teams this season and the Jaguars should enjoy a major advantage in this aspect of the game. Note: This may be overstating things a bit, but the Steelers' special teams did outplay the special teams of the Jaguars. Jacksonville averaged under 20 yards per kick return, under 4 yards per punt return, and the Jags' punter had a net average of 26.6 yards -- though he did have three punts downed inside the Steelers' 20 yard line.

8. Win the physical battle, again—The Jaguars are the more physical team. This should be a given.

9. Beware Holmes—Santonio Holmes is the Steelers’ home-run hitter. He has the kind of speed and athletic talent that should be feared and respected.

10. Seize the moment—This is the Jaguars’ portal to so many good things. This is a game that could deepen the roots of professional football in Jacksonville. This is a game that could truly earn the Jaguars national respect. A win would likely send the Jaguars to New England for a chance to make history. A loss would ruin everything.

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Tuesday, January 01, 2008

Jacksonville v. Steelers: Matchups,
The Wild Card Edition

We don't pay a great deal of attention to point spreads, but we couldn't help but notice that Jacksonville is only giving between a point and a point-and-a-half in some of the early lines, of course the Steelers are the only home team not favored.

And for those who might want to take some encouragement away from Jacksonville's loss to Houston just remember that the the Jaguars deactivated six of their most important players.

Lastly, since the 2000 season (i.e. 2000-2006, inclusive), in the Wild Card Weekend, the home teams have a collective record of 19-9. And the Steelers are 4-1 in the last five appearances during that weekend.

It seems as though we did something like this not too long ago, but here's a look at the Jaguars' and Steelers' updated numbers.

Jacksonville Offense v. Steelers Defense
Average total yards per game: Jacksonville offense 7th (357.4) v. Steelers defense 1st (266.4)

Average net rushing yards per game: Jacksonville offense 2nd (149.4) v. Steelers defense 3rd (89.9)

Average net passing yards per game: Jacksonville offense 17th (208.0) v. Steelers defense 3rd (176.5)

Average points per game: Jacksonville offense 6th (25.69) v. Steelers defense 2nd (16.81)

Steelers Offense v. Jacksonville Defense
Average total yards per game: Steelers offense 17th (327.4) v. Jacksonville defense 12th (313.8)

Average net rushing yards per game: Steelers offense 3rd (135.5) v. Jacksonville defense 11th (100.3)

Average net passing yards per game: Steelers offense 22nd (191.9) v. Jacksonville defense 15th (213.5)

Average points per game: Steelers offense: 9th (24.56) v. Jacksonville defense 10th (19.0)

Special Teams
Average yards per punt return: Jacksonville 8th (10.1) v. Steelers 30th (6.1)

Average yards allowed per punt return: Jacksonville 11th (7.8) v. Steelers 14th (8.6)

Average yards per kick return: Jacksonville 15th (22.7) v. Steelers 21st (22.0)

Average yards allowed per kick return: Jacksonville 4th (19.7) v. Steelers 16th (22.6)

Net yardage punting average: Jacksonville 14th (36.9) v. Steelers 9th (37.9)

Opponent net yardage punting average: Jacksonville 17th (37.3) v. Steelers 26th (38.6)

Miscellaneous
Turnover differential: Jacksonville 7th (+9) v. Steelers 12th (+3)

Time of possession: Jacksonville 3rd (32:06) v. Steelers 1st (34:41)

Red Zone touchdown efficiency: Jacksonville 9th (56.9%) v. Steelers 7th (58.2%)

Red Zone defense (touchdowns): Jacksonville 23rd (55.6%) v. Steelers 22nd (55.3%)

Sacks allowed: Jacksonville 15th (31) v. Steelers 25th (47)

Sacks: Jacksonville 9th (37) v. Steelers 13th (36)

Some Individual Numbers
Passer rating: David Garrard 3rd (102.2) v. Ben Roethlisberger 2nd (104.1)

Leading rushers: Fred Taylor 9th (1,202 yards) v. Willie Parker 4th
(1,316 yards) Note: Najeh Davenport, the Steelers' likely starter this Saturday, is 45th in the NFL in rushing, and has rushed for 499 yards.

Leading receiver: Ernest Wilford 83rd (45 catches, 518 yards, 11.5 per catch, 3 touchdowns) v. Hines Ward 26th (71 catches, 732 yards, 10.3 yards per catch, 7 touchdowns)

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Sunday, December 16, 2007

Jacksonville @ Steelers: The Good,
the Bad, & the Ugly

What kind of day was it for the Steelers? For one game at least they were worse than the NFL's worst (i.e. even the Dolphins won). If ever there was a game that was not as close as the score would seemingly indicate it was the the game between the surging Jaguars and the collapsing Steelers. And without further adieu, here's a closer look at the disaster game.

The Good
Is there a rookie special team player of the year award? If so, Daniel Sepulveda should receive serious consideration. On Sunday he kicked seven times, had a per kick average of 40.9, and a net of 38.7. Looking at it another way, of Mr. Sepulveda's seven kicks only four were returned, and those for a combined total of 15 yards. Two of the punts were downed/went out of bounds inside the Jacksonville twenty yard line. On a day when the Pittsburgh offense did little, Mr. Sepulveda's efforts helped keep the Steelers in the game.

Highlighting Daniel Sepulveda's efforts leads naturally to a discussion of the special teams, specifically the coverage teams, which were also a positive. As inferred above, the punt coverage team did a solid job. In fact, coming into the game Jacksonville was averaging just over 10 yards per punt return for the season. In Sunday's game the Steelers held them to 3.8 yards per punt return. Additionally, the kick coverage unit did well -- holding the Jags to nearly six yards under their season average (18.3 v. 24.1). Individually, Marquis Cooper was a special teams standout on Sunday. He was officially credited with one special teams tackle, but he could have been credited with at least one more. Having been re-signed just this week (specifically to shore-up the special teams) he came in and did the job he was hired for. Given the way the rest of the team played that's saying something.

The Bad
It may seem the height of irony, however even on a day when Willie Parker rushed for 100 yards the offensive line has to be called out for another poor performance. The number of sacks certainly tells a story -- five against Jacksonville, and forty-three for the season (the Steelers allowed 49 sacks in all of 2006). Some will point to Mr. Parker's rushing total as evidence of an overall good effort by this unit; however such a perspective ignores the fact the nearly half of his rushing total (42 yards) came on three carries. More significantly, if the offensive line had actually been effective in its run blocking wouldn't the Steelers have called more than 15 running plays? Even after falling behind, perhaps because the Steelers' defense played so abysmally, wouldn't the Steelers have done anything they could do to hold onto the football? The fact is the offensive line did little to assert itself, and the result was a game in which:
  • Jacksonville possessed the ball more than 15 minutes longer than the Steelers -- an entire quarter longer.
  • Ergo, the Jaguars ran 20 more offensive plays than the Steelers.
What was once a strength of the team is now suspect; and unless/until it's bolstered the Steelers will be nothing more than a middlin' team with a rich history.

The Ugly
Fred Taylor ran for 147 yards, Maurice Jones-Drew ran for another 69, and David Garrard added eight more for a total of 224 (note: for those wondering the record for yards rushing by a Steelers opponent in a single game was set November 4, 1934 by the Detroit Lion -- they gained 426 yards). In the thirteen games leading up to this one the Steelers had surrendered a total of 944 net yards of rushing. The previous high total for this season was the 151 yards rushing given up to the New York Jets (which means that 31.5% of the rushing yards gained against the Steelers' defense this season have come in two games).

In the fourth quarter, needing a stop after the offense came to life and tied the game, the Jaguars marched right . . . down . . . the . . . field (8 plays, 73 yards, using 3:35) for the game winning score.

The Jaguars were 3-for-3 on fourth downs.

Dick LeBeau is a hall-of-famer, and he will forever have a special place in the hearts of Steelers fans. But, what exactly was the game plan -- certainly this wasn't it, right? David Garrard is no slouch, but wasn't it incumbent on the Steelers to see if he's actually capable of throwing for a win?

But on a much more basic level, it must be said that the Jaguar's offensive line dominated the Steelers' front seven; and though Jacksonville has won its last three meetings against the Steelers that's the first time anyone could say that.

And Anthony Smith and Ike Taylor . . . please feel free to take care of your job (i.e. deep coverage). If the other nine guys can't stop Fred Taylor then the defense needs more help than you two can provide.

Conclusion
The Steelers now go to St. Louis a team that they should beat -- just like Arizona, Denver, and the New York Jets -- but it appears that there are, quite suddenly, no sure things with this ballclub. Obviously, if there is to be a playoff appearance this season (and at this point we're not convinced that would be a good thing) they need to win their two remaining games.

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Jacksonville v. Steelers:
Instant First Half Analysis

As we pointed out Saturday Jacksonville has a winning record when losing the coin toss, so the fact that the Steelers won the toss represented something of an early setback.

First Quarter
Obviously the offense was just pathetic. They gained 41 yards, twenty-one rushing and sixteen passing, but with Ben Roethlisberger being sacked twice for a total loss of seventeen yards the official passing statistic for the first quarter was -1 yards.

Defensively all that can be said is that they adjusted as the quarter went on, and after allowing a forty-two yard drive on Jacksonville's first possession the Jags netted a total of 13 yards on the other two possessions of the quarter.


Second Quarter
Thank God for Adam Podlesh. The horrible effort by the Jaguars' punter, from deep in his own territory, was the equivalent of a turnover. And Ben Roethlisberger's third down 18 yard touchdown pass exceeded his total for the entire first quarter. However the inability of the Steelers' offense to do anything with their next two possessions of the quarter -- they had -1 total yards -- allowed the Jaguars to turn the field position battle back in their favor.

As pathetic as the Steelers' offense played the defense has been an even bigger disappointment. Not stopping Maurice Jones-Drew on the fourth down carry (as a UCLA alum I love Maurice, but come on!) was a back breaker. All told, the two scoring drives by Jacksonville took 18 plays and covered 110 yards. Fred Taylor already has 72 yards rushing, Mr. Jones-Drew has 20, and David Garrard has 6 -- Jacksonville is more than on their way to a 100 yard rushing day.


Conclusion
The Steelers have just played one of their worst thirty minutes of football, but only trail by three points. Improvement is likely to result in a Steelers' win, however another half like the first will almost certainly result in a loss.

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Saturday, December 15, 2007

Odds & Ends: Pre-Game Edition

As the Steelers prepare to host the Jacksonville Jaguars here are some random items for your consideration:

Looking Forward by Looking Back
In week two of the 2006 season the Steelers travelled to Jacksonville for a Monday night matchup with the Jags, losing 9-0. At the time the game represented the lowest scoring Monday night game ever -- until the Steelers beat the Dolphins 3-0 earlier this season. How dominant was the Jags defense? Willie Parker was limited to 20 yards of rushing on 11 carries, and the Steelers had no rushing first downs. And lest anyone think that it was only the running game that performed horribly, Ben Roethlisberger, playing in his first game since emergency appendectomy two weeks before, achieved a 38.7 quarterback rating that night, and Hines Ward had no receptions.

How bad was it? Jacksonville possessed the football for nearly fifteen minutes longer than the Steelers (37:25 v. 22:35) as they ran twenty-two more offensive plays (70 v. 48) than did the Steelers.

Coincidentally, in their defeat of Carolina last week the Jaguars offense ran off 75 plays, their highest total of the season so far, and possessed the ball for 38:58, also their best performance in that category of the season-to-date (though it should be noted that they have had a time of possession total of thirty-four minutes or more in six games this season -- their record in those games is 5-1, with the only loss coming against Indianapolis on December 2nd).

The Marcus Stroud Factor
Much is being made of the Pro Bowl defensive end being placed on injured reserve; and while we do not know Jack Del Rio, it's probably safe to say that he would rather have him playing than not. However, if any Steelers fans believe that Mr. Stroud's absence is a just the "advantage" that the team needs remember this: In the game last season Marcus Stround had one tackle, and zero sacks. The big playmakers in that game were middle linebacker Mike Peterson (2 tackles, 5 assists), Donovan Darius (3 tackles, 3 assists -- what a difference a year makes), middle linebacker Daryl Smith (yes, two middle linebackers -- 4 tackles, 1 assist), and the biggest of them all -- left cornerback Rashean Mathis who had three tackles, one assist, and two interceptions. That's the same Rashean Mathis who in week six off the 2005 season intercepted a Tommy Maddox pass in overtime and returned it for a touchdown.

Coming into this week's game Mike Peterson is the Jaguars' leading tackler, however Mr. Mathis has only one interception. Instead, free safety Reggie Nelson and strong safety Sammy Knight are tied for the team lead in picks with four each. In addition to his four picks Mr. Knight is number two in tackles for the Jaguars' defense.

Rushing Defense
In the first game of the 2007 Jacksonville's defense yielded a mind-boggling 282 yards rushing to Tennessee. Since that game the Jaguars have given up 928 yards of rushing (77.33 yards per game), and have not allowed a team to rush for 100 yards since their November 4th loss to New Orleans.

The Jack Del Rio Factor
Jack Del Rio has a 17-20 record as head coach in road games; and his record when trailing at the end of the first quarter is 8-21. Additionally, his coaching record in games in which the turnover margin was either even or in his opponent's favor (i.e. the Jaguars committed more turnovers) is 13-29. Conversely, when the Jags lead at the end of the first quarter their record (under Mr. Del Rio) is 24-3 (and, under Mr. Del Rio, the team is 29-5 when they score first). And when Jacksonville wins the turnover battle they have a record of 30-4.

From the "who'd have thunk it?" file, Mr. Del Rio's Jags are 15-15 when they win the coin toss, and 28-18 when they lose the toss.

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Thursday, December 13, 2007

ESPN Thinks Jacksonville's Defense
is Overrated

Last week it was a Steelers player lobbing incendiary comments at an opponent, this week it is ESPN. Writing for ESPN insider (subscription required), K.C. Joyner argues that the Jaguars have solid numbers against the run because Jaguars opponents are always playing from behind and have solid numbers against the pass because they've played against teams with mediocre quarterbacks, and goes on to say that "the Jaguars' defense is playing at an average level at best."

Great -- a team getting some extra motivation heading in to a game against the Steelers.

Before completely dismissing the article it's worth noting that the Jaguars have played against some pretty bad quarterbacks :
  • Vince Young, twice (the NFL Vince Young, not the UT Vince Young)
  • Joey Harrington
  • Damon Huard
  • J.P. Losman
  • Vinny Testaverde


The money quote (as Andrew Sullivan would say):

"The sum total of this analysis is that although the Jaguars can get and protect a lead against teams with bad passing games, they have unable to slow down upper-echelon passing offenses. That bodes quite poorly for their matchup against Pittsburgh and Ben Roethlisberger this Sunday. It also looks to be a bad omen for their potential playoff matchups against the Steelers, Colts or Patriots."

However valid Mr. Joyner's remarks, it would have been great if he could have waited until next week to call out the Jags' defense.

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Wednesday, December 12, 2007

Jacksonville v. Steelers: The Matchups

One can only imagine how glad the Steelers -- players and coaches alike -- to have another game to play . . . an opportunity to redeem themselves against a quality opponent. As the the Steelers look forward to their final, regular season, home game here's how the numbers stack up.

Jacksonville Offense v. Steelers Defense
Average total yards per game: Jacksonville offense 9th (344.6) v. Steelers defense 1st (245.5) Note: Still first after last week, and despite a jump of fifteen yards in their per game average allowed? Amazing.

Average net rushing yards per game: Jacksonville offense 2nd (143.8) v. Steelers defense 2nd (72.6)

Average net passing yards per game: Jacksonville offense 20th (200.8) v. Steelers defense 2nd (172.8)

Average points per game: Jacksonville offense 10th (23.46) v. Steelers defense 1st (14.54) Note: Also amazing.

Steelers Offense v. Jacksonville Defense
Average total yards per game: Steelers offense 14th (333.3) v. Jacksonville defense 17th (330.7)

Average net rushing yards per game: Steelers offense 3rd (141.6) v. Jacksonville defense 5th (93.1)

Average net passing yards per game: Steelers offense 24th (191.7) v. Jacksonville defense 27th (23.7.6)

Average points per game: Steelers offense: 8th (23.77) v. Jacksonville defense 6th (17.62)

Special Teams
Average yards per punt return: Jacksonville 9th (10.5) v. Steelers 30th (6.4)

Average yards allowed per punt return: Jacksonville 9th (7.3) v. Steelers 19th (9.8)

Average yards per kick return: Jacksonville 8th (24.1) v. Steelers 21st (21.9)

Average yards allowed per kick return: Jacksonville 1st (17.5) v. Steelers 14th (22.3)

Net yardage punting average: Jacksonville 15th (36.8) v. Steelers 11th (37.6)

Opponent net yardage punting average: Jacksonville 13th (37.1) v. Steelers 28th (38.9)

Miscellaneous
Turnover differential: Jacksonville 7th (+8) v. Steelers 14th (+2)
Note: The Steelers have been -4 in turnovers their last two games.

Time of possession: Jacksonville 3rd (32:06) v. Steelers 1st (34:41)

Red Zone touchdown efficiency: Jacksonville 20th (48.9%) v. Steelers 13th (54.3%)

Red Zone defense (touchdowns): Jacksonville 8th (47.4%) v. Steelers 13th (50.0%)

Sacks allowed: Jacksonville 17th (27) v. Steelers 24th (38)

Sacks: Jacksonville 18th (27) v. Steelers 8th (33)

Some Individual Numbers
Passer rating: David Garrard 3rd (103.3) v. Ben Roethlisberger 4th (101.4)

Leading rushers: Fred Taylor 9th (944 yards) v. Willie Parker 1st
(1,217 yards)

Leading receiver: Dennis Northcutt 53rd (39 catches, 502 yards, 12.9 per catch, 3 touchdowns) v. Hines Ward 20th (62 catches, 646 yards, 10.4 yards per catch, 6 touchdowns)

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