Looking Forward to the 2023 Draft: Mock Draft Final

 With round one of the actual 2023 NFL Draft just a couple of days away, it is time for one more dive into an attempt to mock out just who the Steelers may choose with their seven selections.

Pick #17
It really is incredible how many quality players are available here.  Most notable in this third mock is that Deonte Banks has moved up the PFF board, moving past Joey Porter Jr. to the #18 position in PFF's rankings.  In this mock, as in previous iterations, PFF's #1 ranked tight end (Dalton Kincaid) is available, as is their top-rated safety (Brian Branch), the #2 ranked interior defensive lineman (Calijah Kancey), the #3 edge defender (Myles Murphy), and the previously mentioned Deonte Banks who is PFF's third-rated cornerback.

During Monday's press conference, Mike Tomlin made it clear that he does not see any glaring weaknesses in his team, implying that they will look to select the best player available.  He also discussed the evolution of specialization in the NFL, specifically mentioning situational defensive backs as something new to the NFL schemes. With that in mind, along with the knowledge that cornerback is a position with significant depth in this draft, the selection here is Brian Branch. 

SELECTION: Brian Branch (S/Alabama)

Pick #32
In this mock draft, some of the more notable players available here were PFF's #1 rated offensive guard (O'Cyrus Torrence), their #1 rated linebacker (Jack Campbell), the #3 tight end (Darnell Washington), the #2 interior defender (Mazi Smith), and the #5 offensive tackle (Dawand Jones). The Steelers' offseason moves have included signing two offensive guards, and while a spot is likely to open later this offseason (i.e., Kendrick Green seems at risk of being cut) it seems less likely the team would go that route with this pick. Meanwhile, in previous mock drafts, I have argued that the defensive line is an area of need, and Smith would be a quality selection. Linebacker? Campbell is good, excelling as a run stopper but struggling a bit in pass coverage. As for tight end, PFF sees Washington as a third rounder. 

As a fan, I was not enamored with any of these options but also did not want to reach down the board to take a cornerback. There is a lot of value in this pick, especially for teams without first-round selections (e.g., Miami and Denver).

SELECTION: Mazi Smith (DL/Michigan)

Pick #49
Having done a fair number of mock drafts, at this point a lot of the names are recognizable -- Tyrique Stevenson (CB, Miami), D.J. Turner (CB, Michigan), Antonio Johnson (PFF's #2 rated safety, Texas A&M). But a couple of offensive players caught my eye this time around: Zach Charbonnet (RB, UCLA) and Cody Mauch (T, North Dakota State). As in my second mock draft, I am always ready to show some love to my alma mater and this time is no exception. Charbonnet was a dynamic performer in his final season at UCLA, both as a runner and as a pass catcher. While I recognize that selecting a running back is improbable, some team is going to get a phenomenal talent. But, Cody Mauch is just too good to pass up -- in the past three seasons he gave up a combined total of three sacks, five QB hits, and 16 QB hurries.

SELECTION: Cody Mauch (OT, North Dakota State)

Pick #80
This is another spot where trading down, especially if the Steelers were to get a second or third-round selection in next year's draft makes some sense. However, the player I ultimately selected is rated as sixth-best at his position by PFF and "is one of the best coverage linebackers in the class, boasting a 6-foot-8 wingspan and 4.49 speed."

SELECTION: Dorian Williams (LB/Tulane)

Pick #120
So many offensive linemen are still available here, including PFF's third-best offensive guard (Chandler Zavala, N.C. State).  Also notable is the fifth-best safety (Anthony Johnson Jr., Iowa State). But because the Steelers next pick is not until 241, I was willing to look down the board a bit to see what else might be available, ultimately decided on another cornerback.

SELECTION: Jaylon Jones (CB/Texas A&M)

Pick #241
Seventh-round picks are seventh-round picks for a reason (Brock Purdy notwithstanding). Athleticism is key, and if a team can find a player good enough to stick to the roster that is a win. In this mock draft there were just a bushel of linemen, both offensive and defensive, along with wide receivers and running backs. But the player who seemed to offer the most value, though a bit undersized and a USC alum, is PFF's seventh-rated center.

SELECTION:  Brett Neilon (C/USC)

Pick #251
Who really knows? However, this linebacker has performed well in pass coverage but missed more tackles than one would prefer.

SELECTION: Aubrey Miller Jr. (LB/Jackson State)

And here is how PFF graded me:

Definitely a mixed back. The only selection I would change is choosing Dorian Williams in the third round -- chances seem pretty good that he would have been there at #120. 

Looking Forward to the 2023 Draft: Mock Draft #2

 With the news that the Steelers had swapped 7th-round picks with the Los Angeles Rams in order to get Alan Robinson, not to mention all of the other moves they have made this offseason, I thought now would be as good a time as any to run a new mock draft.

Using the Pro Football Focus draft simulator again, I pumped up the "Randomness" setting just a bit because of the numerous offseason moves made by Omar Khan.  The other settings remained the same.  Here is how the draft unfolded:

Selection #17
The players that fell to the Steelers in this simulation were truly random: Peter Skoronski (OT, Northwestern), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR, Ohio State), Calijah Kancey (DL, Pitt), Dalton Kincaid (TE, Utah), and Deonte Banks (CB, Maryland).

The injury-riddled season suffered by Smith-Njigba leaves me hesitant to select him here, though the story of being united with his brother in Pittsburgh would be a heartwarming one.

This is as low as I have seen Skoronski fall in any of the simulations I have run via PFF, and though some who are far more knowledgeable than I have some concerns about his arm length there seems to be no doubt about his ability to play offensive guard in the NFL. But with the Steelers acquiring Nate Herbig and Isaac Seumalo this offseason, is this the spot to go guard?  I think not.

The draft consensus is that Dalton Kincaid is the best tight end in the draft, but this seems too high a selection for that position (i.e., the Steelers' need is not that acute).

That leaves Kancey and Banks.  Getting Banks, despite the acquisition of Patrick Peterson, makes some sense -- who better to tutor a new member of the defensive backfield?  Of course, the same could be said of Cam Hayward mentoring Kancey, though NFL.com's Lance Zierlein sees the Pitt defensive lineman as being undersized as a run-stopper. Ultimately, it feels like a coin flip between these two; and though I love Kancey and have consistently selected him other draft simulations, I opted for Deonte Banks this time.  SELECTION: Deonte Banks, CB/Maryland

Selection #32
Though the names here are not as highly-publicized as those closer to the top of the draft, the quality of players available at the beginning of the second round is pretty remarkable, with the highest-rated available players being Will McDonald IV (Edge, Iowa State), Emmanuel Forbes (CB, Mississippi State), Felix Anudike-Uzomah (Edge, Kansas State), Mazi Smith (DL, Michigan), BJ Ojulari (Edge, LSU), and Dawand Jones (OT, Ohio State).

Of the edge rushers available, it has been widely reported that Anudike-Uzomah visited the Steelers South Side offices recently. There is little doubt that Mazi Smith would be an upgrade for the defensive line, an area of particular need on the defense (if only because injuries seem to have plagued this group the past few seasons). Also, though the first-round selection of a cornerback would seemingly preclude selecting another here, Forbes is a compelling prospect who has started since his freshman season. Dawand Jones seems a bit too entrenched as a right offensive tackle -- the Steelers seem to value position flexibility along the offensive line the way the Pirates want their players to play multiple positions. After a lot of flip-flopping, I went with Anudike-Uzomah. SELECTION: Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Edge/Kansas State

Selection #49
Want another cornerback? This spot offers multiple options including Tyrique Stevenson (Miami), Julius Brents (Kansas State), Garrett Williams (Syracuse), and Tre'Vius Hodges-Tomlinson (TCU).  All but Williams, who is still rehabilitating following knee surgery are attractive options.  Also available here is the best running back in the draft: Zach Charbonnet (UCLA).  As a proud UCLA alumnus, I admit to some bias, but I can say with a clear conscience that he is an impact player -- the Steelers could do worse (though I know in my head that there is no chance of them selecting a running back here). Having said all of that, I focused on Daiyan Henley (ILB, Washington State), PFF's highest rated inside linebacker. At 6'2", 225 lbs., he seems a bit undersized, but this synopsis from PFF sold me: "Henley is a converted receiver who now covers them with ease. He also tracks them down in space, as he missed only five tackles on 97 attempts last season." SELECTION: Daiyan Henley, LB/Washington State

Selection #80
Williams (Syracuse), and Hodges-Tomlinson (TCU) were available here as well. But the name that jumped out was that of Antonio Johnson (S, Texas A&M). Rated by PFF as the #2 safety in this year's draft, and 64th best player overall, he is just too good to pass up. SELECTION: Anotonio Johnson, S/Texas A&M

Selection #120
Now into the middle of the fourth round, this is where scouting and evaluation mean so much. These players are still available to select because of perceived flaws in their respective games. Some of those available include Nick Herbig (Edge, Wisconsin) -- a selection of Herbig would give the Steelers their second brother combination on the roster -- Anthony Johnson Jr. (S, Iowa State), Chandler Zavala (OG, NC State), Isaiah McGuire (Edge, Missouri), and Dorian Williams (LB, Tulane). Given all the off-season acquisitions along the offensive line, it seems unlikely that a selection of Zavala would happen here, yet, he is the third-highest rated OG according to PFF. Meanwhile, Williams is #5 at his position according to PFF and " is one of the best coverage linebackers in the class, boasting a 6-foot-8 wingspan and 4.49 speed." That also translates to special teams. SELECTION: Dorian Williams, LB/Tulane

Selection #241
There is no greater value pick available in this draft. SELECTION: Dorian Thompson-Robinson, QB/UCLA. No, the Steelers do not need a QB. Or do they? With only two quarterbacks on the roster, they are sure to bring in someone for training camp. Moreover, DTR is the kind of athletic quarterback that "makes run defense more challenging." He is a winner and a leader.

Selection #251
Moving down a bit in the swap of picks with the Rams, it seems best to find someone who can contribute on special teams -- chances of finding a starter are pretty remote. PFF's #15 ranked safety, Quidell Johnson (Memphis) is available, as is the #10 linebacker, Troy Brown (Mississippi). SELECTION: Troy Brown, LB/Mississippi

And here is how PFF graded this draft:

As can be seen, PFF did not hate the DTR choice nearly as much as some Steelers fans no doubt will!

Looking Forward to the 2023 Draft: Mock Draft #1

Sure, it has been a while since last I took the time to publish here. The reason for that is pretty obvious: There are a lot of better, more informed writers covering the Steelers today than there were seven years ago. Like most of you, I consumed most of the content created by Dale Lolley, Dejan Kovacevic, Chris Carter, et al.  Those reporters have access to the team, its players, coaches, and management.  What in the world could I hope to offer that they have not already provided?  But then, mock draft simulations became a thing and I figured my guesses were worth taking the time to share.  

Between now and the NFL Draft I will post my selections for the Steelers along with some rationale for those selections.  For the purposes of these posts, I am not proposing any trades, though it seems pretty clear that pick #32 could be dealt to a team missing out on the first round (e.g., Rams #36, Dolphins #51, Broncos #67) for a decent return both this year and next (and, perhaps, 2025).  For all of these drafts, I am using the Pro Football Focus (PFF) draft simulator with custom settings:

With all of that in mind, let's dive into Mock Draft #1!

By the time for the Steelers' first pick (#17) came around the top three cornerbacks (i.e., Christian Gonzalez, Devon Witherspoon, and Joey Porter Jr. -- he went to the Jets) were already off the board.  As a result, the players at the top of PFF's draft rankings available were:

 

#13: Calijah Kancey (DL, Pitt), 

#14: Brian Branch (S, Alabama), 

#17: Dalton Kincaid (TE, Utah), 

#18: Deonte Banks (CB, Maryland)

A great deal of focus regarding the Steelers this postseason has been on the need for adding quality and depth to their cornerbacks, and Banks would be a good choice here.  Of course, there have been reports that Steelers' management is also looking to add a safety, and if that is perceived as a higher priority then Branch could be the way to go.  Meanwhile, as good as Kincaid may be, there is no chance that the team takes a tight end in the first round.  Having said all of that, Kancey is the selection to make here.  Any doubts I may have had were laid to rest with this from PFF: "He may have to start off as a designated pass-rusher, but he can truly excel in that role. There's little doubt he's going to impact QBs at the next level."  Having a solid secondary is important but one way to improve your secondary is to put more pressure on opposing quarterbacks more consistently.  SELECTION: Calijah Kancey

As selection #32 rolled around, here were the top ten players available according to PFF's rankings:

#30: Josh Downs (WR, UNC)

#31: Dawand Jones (OT, Ohio State)

#32: Tanner McKee (QB, Stanford)

#33: Felix Anudike-Uzomah (Edge, Kansas State)

#35: BJ Ojulari (Edge, LSU)

#36: Emmanual Forbes (CB, Mississippi State)

#37: Daiyan Henley (LB, Washington State)

#38: Cam Smith (CB, South Carolina)

#40: Adetomiwa Adebawore (Edge, Northwestern)

#41: Steve Avila (OG, TCU)

There is a lot to like in this group but there are some positions (i.e., OG, QB, WR) that will not be part of the Steelers' draft calculus at this spot.  Further, as appealing as a young, athletic edge rusher might be it seems a reach at selection #32.  That leaves these players to receive the most serious consideration:

#31: Dawand Jones (OT, Ohio State)

#36: Emmanual Forbes (CB, Mississippi State)

#37: Daiyan Henley (LB, Washington State)

#38: Cam Smith (CB, South Carolina)

Yes, the Steelers need a cornerback (or two).  But, with their future vested in Kenny Pickett, it seems prudent to solidify left tackle.   SELECTION: Dawand Jones (OT, Ohio State)

The next Steelers selection comes at #49 and this was, by far, the toughest choice.  I had hoped that a cornerback (e.g., Tyrique Stevenson) or a safety (e.g., Anotonio Johnson) would be available here but they went off the board shortly ahead of the Steelers' pick.  Here are the top 20 players according to PFF that were available at this spot:

#32: Tanner McKee (QB, Stanford)

#43: Nathaniel Dell (WR, Houston)

#46: Luke Wypler (C, Ohio State)

#49: Garrett Williams (CB, Syracuse)

#50: Sam LaPorta (TE, Iowa)

#51: Jahmyr Gibbs (RB, Alabama)

#52: Andre Carter II (Edge, Army)

#53: Joe Tippmann (C, Wisconsin)

#54: Matthew Bergeron (OT, Syracuse)

#56: Karl Brooks (Edge, Bowling Green)

#57: Sydney Brown (S, Syracuse)

#58: Nick Herbig (Edge, Wisconsin)

#59: Tre'Vius Hodges-Tomlinson (CB, TCU)

#60: Zach Charbonnet (RB, UCLA)

#61: Eli Ricks (CB, Alabama)

#62: Julius Brents (CB, Kansas State)

#63: Jammie Robinson (S, FSU)

#65: Siaki Ika (DL, Baylor)

#66: Trenton Simpson (LB, Clemson)

#67: Keannu Benton (DL, Wisconsin)

Seeing Bergeron available made me a bit whistful about having selected Jones at #32.  With cornerback and safety still a need, I had to pass on Zach Charbonnet who is an outstanding runner and pass catcher -- someone is going to get a great running back.  Similarly, it is difficult to believe that offensive line would see much more attention in this draft, especially considering the two free agent signings earlier this month.  Ultimately, I focused on the defensive backs:

#57: Sydney Brown (S, Syracuse)
#59: Tre'Vius Hodges-Tomlinson (CB, TCU)

#61: Eli Ricks (CB, Alabama)

#62: Julius Brents (CB, Kansas State)

#63: Jammie Robinson (S, FSU)

After perusing the various metrics offered I settled on Sydney Brown, of whom PFF says "Brown is the single best athlete in this safety class. His size [5'10", 211 lbs.] will take him off some boards, but his coverage versatility should be coveted."  SELECTION: Sydney Brown (S, Syracuse).

Now at #80, cornerbacks seem relatively plentiful with a few now familiar names popping up  again, along with some new ones:

#32: Tanner McKee (QB, Stanford)
#49: Garrett Williams (CB, Syracuse)

#59: Tre'Vius Hodges-Tomlinson (CB, TCU)

#63: Jammie Robinson (S, FSU)

#81: Darius Rush (CB, South Carolina)

#82: Dorian Williams (LB, Tulane)

Sorry Tanner McKee, you are not going to be selected here either.  In looking at the defensive backs, the question becomes do the Steelers want to selected a cornerback who is ranked between 15-25 at their position or a safety who is top ten at his?  I opted for the safety who is well rated in both coverage and run defense.  SELECTION: Jammie Robinson (S, FSU).

At spot #120, the top rated players represent an array of positions, including running backs, safeties, linebackers, defensive linemen, edge rushers, and wide receivers.  The players to whom I gave serious consideration were:

#111: Yasir Abdullah (Edge, Louisville)

#116: Ronnie Hickman (Safety, Ohio State)

#121: Keondre Coburn (Nose Tackle, Texas)

#123: Ji'Ayir Brown (Safety, Penn State)

#124: Cam Jones (LB, Indiana)

Abdullah is highly regarded by PFF and had 11 sacks during his 2022 season (as compared to 13 in the previous two seasons combined) and Hickman had the 33rd best passer rating allowed (39.2) amongst all safeties.  Statistics for Jones and Brown were less impressive, with PFF arguing that Brown "is too unreliable to trust deep."  SELECTION: Ronnie Hickman (Safety, Ohio State).

With the final two Steelers picks in the middle of the seventh round, I focused on getting athletes/special teams contributors.  

#234 SELECTION:  SirVocea Dennis (LB, Pitt) -- I rather doubt that Dennis will last this long in the actual draft, especially considering his strong performance at Pitt's pro day, but if he is then the Steelers should snap him up.

#241 SELECTION:  Dorian Thompson-Robinson (QB, UCLA) -- as a UCLA alum, I freely admit my bias.  However, the Steelers need a third quarterback and this young man is an incredible athlete.  Also available in this mock draft was Max Duggan, the quarterback from TCU.

At the conclusion of the draft, here is how PFF graded my selections:

The 49th pick was the toughest so I am not surprised that it received a less than stellar grade.  Further, not finding a cornerback seems problematic.  But, these selections would strengthen both the offensive and defensive lines as well as safety.

Thanks for reading and the next mock draft will be in about a week.

Blogger greetings

Blogger https://www.google.com/search?q=jaubele1.steelersfanatic@blogger.com Jaubele1

Season's End: Looking to the Draft

With the Steeler's postseason run having come to an untimely end it is time to think about the composition of the 2016 roster, and who doesn't love a good mock draft?  The key is finding good mock drafts, and Daniel Jeremiah of NFL.com is one of our personal favorites.  Mr. Jeremiah released his first mock draft late Sunday evening and he has the Steelers choosing Hunter Henry, a tight end from Arkansas, with their first choice.

There is little doubt that if the Steelers were to select a tight end with their #1 pick angry masses would storm the Steelers' Southside offices, but with elite talent at cornerback hard to come by Mr. Jeremiah's best options at that position (four players) are gone in the first 12 picks.

For more perspective take a look at Mr. Jeremiah's current Top 50.

Looking Ahead: Week 16

Like the team itself, Steelers fans will probably enjoy the win over Denver for about 12-24 hours before turning their collective attention to next weekend.

The Steelers travel to Baltimore for a 1:00PM matchup with the shell of what was formerly the Ravens.  Will the Steelers take care of business and pound what is now an undermanned team?  Or will the cumulative effects of playing four emotional games (okay, the blow-up over Indianapolis might not have been that emotionally taut) catch-up to the Steelers?

Meanwhile, in New Jersey, the Patriots will head to the Meadowlands looking to solidify their position as the #1 seed in the AFC, thereby assuring a bye week.  The other team ahead of the Steelers in the playoff race, Kansas City, hosts Cleveland.

QBR is the most useless metric ever

In case anyone needed any further evidence of just how meaningless the QBR© metric is the folks at Pro Football Talk have provided us with plenty: "But today I decided to dig a little deeper into what is, according to QBR, the greatest game any quarterback has ever played: Charlie Batch’s 186-yard, two-interception performance against the Buccaneers in 2010."

For the sake of everyone's well-being can ESPN get back to what it has always been the best at, i.e. televising sporting events?  And if they must insert themselves into the new-metric age, then please leave that to the trained professionals on their staff.